The NFL playoffs have begun, and it’s time to begin the process of crowning a champion. Super Wild Card Weekend featured several intriguing matchups, as we already saw the Packers stun the Cowboys along with the Lions win a playoff game for the first time in 32 years, and a lot else. Now we’re down to Monday’s final two games of the opening weekend, including the Steelers and Bills playing in a game that was moved due to bad weather in Buffalo. Which teams will rise to the occasion, and which ones will falter? That’s what we’re here to explore.
As we do every week, we’ve collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff and more. Ready? Let’s jump in.
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Super Wild Card Weekend? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Time: Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Open: Bills -10, O/U 36.5
“T.J. Watt has been ruled out for this game, which puts a severe dent in Pittsburgh’s chances of disrupting Josh Allen and pulling off the upset. Without Watt, the Steelers are 1-10, allow an average of six more points a game, and have half as many sacks per game. Meanwhile, the Bills winning the AFC East in Week 18 and jumping up to the No. 2 seed is a massive development because they are a far superior team at home than they are on the road, which includes the play from Allen. The Bills quarterback is completing 67.6% of his passes and has a 102.4 passer rating at Highmark Stadium compared to a 65.4 completion percentage and an 83.0 passer rating on the road. He’s also thrown for more touchdowns and fewer interceptions at home as well. Translation: The Steelers are going to get the best version of Allen in this game, which is a terrifying thought for their hopes of advancing.”
Tyler Sullivan isn’t scared of the big number, he likes the Bills to roll Sunday afternoon. To read his breakdown of every game this week, click here.
“The Steelers got stuck with the dreaded seventh-seed. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, that is pretty much the kiss of death. Since the NFL playoff field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, there have been six games involving a seven-seed and not only has the seven-seed gone 0-6 in those games, but they’ve lost them by an average of 12.2 points per game.
“Even if I throw that piece of information out the window, there is one thing I can’t throw out the window and that’s the fact that the Steelers won’t have T.J. Watt, who suffered a Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 18.
“Usually, when I pick against the Steelers, it’s because I have no faith in their offense, but this week, I think it’s their defense that’s going to let them down. Watt has been with the Steelers since 2017 and any time he’s missed a game, it’s pretty much been a kiss of death. If you’re scoring at home, that’s two kisses of death for the Steelers in one game, which feels like too many kisses of death to overcome.
“Watt has missed 11 games in his career and the Steelers have gone 1-10 in those games. When he’s on the field, you have to account for him at all times, but when he’s not out there, the Steelers defense falls apart. When Watt is on the field, the Steelers have only surrendered 19.8 points per game in his career, but when he’s not out there, that number has shot up to 26.3
“Also, the Steelers have averaged more than twice as many sacks per game (3.3 to 1.5) when Watt is on the field versus when he isn’t. If there’s one player the Steelers couldn’t afford to lose for this game, it’s Watt.
“The only way the Steelers will win this game is if Mason Rudolph pulls out a miracle, but after winning three straight games to end the regular season, he has to be out of miracles by now. Right? RIGHT?!?!”
John Breech has the Bills winning this matchup, but he’s taking the Steelers to cover the spread. To read his breakdown of every game in Super Wild Card Weekend, click here.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, fubo try for free)
Open: Eagles -1.5, O/U 44.5
“If I had to rank all six wild-card games based on watchability, I’m not even sure I’d put this one on the list. We have an Eagles team that’s totally imploding going up against a Buccaneers offense that’s falling apart, and you know what, now that I’m saying all of this out loud, this game might be so bad that it’s actually good. This is classic train-wreck television!
“On one hand, you have the Eagles, who were sitting at 10-1 heading into the month of December, but then proceeded to lose five of six games to end the season. I’m not exactly sure what the issue is in Philadelphia, but I can think of a few: Their defense has been bad, their offense is struggling and the players don’t seem to really trust the coaching staff anymore. That sounds like the recipe for a total collapse.
“If the Eagles were playing anyone else, I would automatically pick against them, but the Buccaneers are the one team they MIGHT be able to beat. Over the past two weeks, the Bucs offense has completely disappeared. They had a chance to clinch the division title in Week 17, but they only managed to score 13 points in a loss to the Saints. One week later, they managed to score exactly nine points against the worst team in football (Panthers).
“These teams are both headed in the wrong direction, and when that’s the case, it’s almost impossible to make a pick. The Eagles are 5-1 this year when they rush for 140 yards or more, but I have a hard time seeing them hit that number against a Buccaneers defense that surrendered the fifth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this year.
“The Eagles have hit rock bottom so many times this year that they’re basically living there, and if you’re living at rock bottom, I can’t pick you to win.”
John Breech is taking the Bucs to upset Jalen Hurts and the reigning NFC champions. To read his breakdown of every game in Super Wild Card Weekend, click here.
Before you make any Eagles vs. Buccaneers picks or any other NFL Wild Card predictions, you need to see which side Matthew Severance is on. Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005 and has emerged as one of SportsLine’s top experts in multiple sports. He enters Super Wild Card Weekend on a 49-28 roll (+1018) on all NFL picks. He is also an amazing 20-7-1 on his last 28 picks in games involving the Eagles (+1202). Anyone who has followed him is way up.
We can tell you he’s leaning Under on the point total, but to view his official pick on this primetime playoff matchup, head on over to SportsLine.
