NFL Week 4 odds, picks: Tom Brady beats Patriots in Foxborough, Chiefs get back on track vs. Eagles

Through three weeks, we’ve been treated to quite the slate of games in the NFL. No matter which way you turn, it seems like we’re watching game-winning field goals, last-second touchdown drives and a number of high-profile matchups. It’s most likely taken about five-ish years off all of our lives, but I for one am here for it. 

As we turn our attention to Week 4, it doesn’t look like that drama is going to slow down anytime soon, with the headliner being Tom Brady coming back to Foxborough for the first time since leaving the Patriots in the spring of 2020. As the resident New Englander on staff here at CBS Sports who primarily covers the Patriots, it’s safe to say this will be quite the weekend for yours truly. 

That said, Week 4 has a tough task in front of it as it tries to live up to our very successful Week 3. We were a perfect 5-0 ATS on our locks of the week and 11-5 ATS overall. We’ll try to keep that momentum rolling as this highly-anticipated week in the NFL kicks off.   

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

2021 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 11-2-2

ATS: 26-20-2

ML: 32-16

Lions at Bears 

Despite their 0-3 record on the year, the Lions have been competitive under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. In fact, they are 2-1 ATS and would have earned their first win of the season had it not been for Ravens kicker Justin Tucker setting a new NFL record with a 66-yard field goal to win the game as time expired. So while many may not be too surprised about the Lions’ record, they haven’t rolled over. They now get a Bears team that looks lost offensively, even with first-round rookie Justin Fields under center. (Against Cleveland last week, he was sacked nine times.) While Detroit doesn’t have nearly the defense that the Browns do, I like getting the field goal bump with a team that — in my mind — has been the better club throughout the first three weeks, even if the records don’t reflect it. This could also be a back-breaking moment for Matt Nagy’s job if the Bears were upset at home, which is worth monitoring. 

Projected score: Lions 24, Bears 20

The pick: Lions +3 

Steelers at Packers

The Steelers and Packers are teams on two entirely different trajectories. Over the last two weeks, Green Bay has righted the ship and won two straight as Aaron Rodgers returned to his MVP form of a year ago. Meanwhile. the Steelers will come into Lambeau Field on a two-game losing streak that includes an upset loss at home to the Bengals in Week 3. Ben Roethlisberger seems to be running on empty on his Hall of Fame career, and Pittsburgh’s defense is less than 100% from a health standpoint. With all that in mind, it’s hard to imagine the Steelers rolling into Green Bay and keeping this within a touchdown. Following their last eight straight-up losses, Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS. As for the Packers, they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite. 

Projected score: Green Bay 27, Steelers 20

The pick: Packers -6.5 

Buccaneers at Patriots

This is the granddaddy of the Week 4 slate. While this game is highly anticipated because it’s Tom Brady’s first trip back to New England since leaving the Patriots in free agency in 2020, I don’t expect this game to be particularly close. Tampa Bay is simply the better team from top to bottom, while the Patriots are still looking to figure out their identity on offense under rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Tampa’s offensive efficiency ranks inside the top-five in the NFL, while New England sits at 26th overall in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. While this game will be held at Gillette Stadium, I do wonder if the Bucs will have that same road-crowd-type atmosphere with Brady under center. Regardless, this game doesn’t feel like it will be much of a contest. Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS over their last five games following a straight-up loss. The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall.  

Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Patriots 20

The pick: Buccaneers -6.5 

Chiefs at Eagles

Surprisingly, the Chiefs have begun the season 1-2 and are currently last in the AFC West. They are also one of four teams (Jets, Jaguars, and Washington being the others) to begin the year 0-3 ATS. Of course, no one expects Kansas City to remain in their current standing, and I expect that upward trajectory to begin this week in Philadelphia. Dallas was able to hang 41 points on this Eagles defense while Jalen Hurts and the offense managed just two touchdowns. If that continues — and I anticipate it will — the Chiefs should have no problem covering by a touchdown here. Philly is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up loss. 

Projected score: Chiefs 32, Eagles 21

The pick: Chiefs -7

Titans at Jets 

Even with a new coach and a new quarterback, the New York Jets continue to be the New York Jets. Robert Saleh’s team is winless through three weeks and has yet to cover. Offensively, they’ve been stagnant with No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson at the helm, averaging just over six points per game. They were also shut out against the Broncos last week in Denver. They’ll get to head back to MetLife Stadium this weekend but will be facing a Titans offense that includes Derrick Henry, who has been on fire over these last two weeks. So long as Tennessee plays to its capabilities, they’ll win this game by double digits. For what it’s worth, the favorite is also 5-1 ATS in the teams’ last six meetings. 

Projected score: Titans 28, Jets 16

The pick: Titans -7.5 

Rest of the Bunch

Jaguars at Bengals

Projected score: Bengals 28, Jaguars 17

The pick: Bengals -7.5 

Washington at Falcons

Projected score: Falcons 24, Washington 21

The pick: Falcons +1.5

Texans at Bills 

Projected score: Bills 30, Texans 14

The pick: Texans +16.5

Panthers at Cowboys

Projected score: Cowboys 28, Panthers 21

The pick: Cowboys -5

Colts at Dolphins 

Projected score: Dolphins 21, Colts 17

The pick: Dolphins -1.5

Browns at Vikings

Projected score: Browns 27, Vikings 24

The pick: Browns -2 

Giants at Saints

Projected score: Saints 28, Giants 17

The pick: Saints -8

Cardinals at Rams 

Projected score: Rams 30, Cardinals 23

The pick: Rams -4.5

Seahawks at 49ers 

Projected score: 49ers 27, Seahawks 24

The pick: 49ers -2.5

Ravens at Broncos 

Projected score: Ravens 27, Broncos 23

The pick: Ravens +1

Raiders at Chargers 

Projected score: Chargers 30, Raiders 24

The pick: Chargers -3.5

So which picks can you make with confidence? And which undefeated team goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.