NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 4, 2021: Model backing Browns, Seahawks

Four of the Week 4 NFL lines in the early block of Sunday’s games are set at three points or fewer. After last week’s atrocious showing against Cleveland, the Bears are only favored by a field goal at home against lowly Detroit in the latest NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Although Atlanta has had one of the lowest offensive outputs in the NFL, the Falcons are still just 1.5-point underdogs to Washington, one of the tightest NFL spreads of the week.

Miami showed better than many expected last week without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but are just two-point home favorites against struggling Indianapolis. Should any of these close matchups be considered in your Week 4 NFL bets? All of the NFL lines are listed below, and before making any Week 4 NFL picks on these games or others, be sure to see the Week 4 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 4 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Seahawks (+3) cover the spread against the 49ers. San Francisco is coming off an emotional loss to Green Bay in primetime, giving Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers too much time to drive down the field on the final possession. The 49ers will be facing another elite quarterback on Sunday, as Russell Wilson comes to town for a rivalry game.

Wilson has completed 73.3 percent of his pass attempts for 895 yards and seven touchdowns. He has not thrown an interception through his first three games, so San Francisco will need to match him score for score. The Seahawks have more weapons at the skill positions, which is why the early betting action has been on the road team.

SportsLine’s model has Seattle covering in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model also has the Seahawks winning outright in well over 50 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the top Week 4 NFL picks from the model: The Browns (-2) cover the spread on the road against the Vikings well over 50 percent of the time. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski was the offensive coordinator for Minnesota before taking his current job, so he will be familiar with the Vikings’ schemes on Sunday. Both teams like to run the ball, but Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield provides a more dynamic threat than his Vikings counterpart, Kirk Cousins.

The Browns also have the superior defense, making multiple upgrades during the offseason. They have a solid pass rush and more depth, giving them an edge on the road. Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is going to be difficult for Minnesota to slow down and Cleveland is coming off a dominant win over Chicago in which it recorded nine sacks.

SportsLine’s model is predicting a big day from Cleveland running back Nick Chubb, who is expected to rush for 90 yards. He is one of the reasons that the Browns are covering in well over 50 percent of simulations. The under is also cashing at a high rate.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for an undefeated team to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which undefeated team goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 4 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Sunday, Oct. 3

Washington at Falcons (+1.5, 47.5)

Lions at Bears (-3, 41.5)

Titans at Jets (+6, 44.5)

Browns at Vikings (+2, 51.5)

Colts at Dolphins (-2, 42.5)

Panthers at Cowboys (-4.5, 51.5)

Giants at Saints (-7, 42)

Chiefs at Eagles (+7, 54.5)

Texans at Bills (-17, 47)

Cardinals at Rams (-4, 54.5)

Seahawks at 49ers (-3, 52)

Ravens at Broncos (+1, 44)

Steelers at Packers (-6.5, 45.5)

Buccaneers at Patriots (+7, 49.5)

Monday, Oct. 4

Raiders at Chargers (-3, 51.5)