It’s July, and that can mean only one thing: it’s time to recklessly speculate about the upcoming July 30 trade deadline. With that in mind, this (and last) week’s Prospect Watch will deviate from the norm. Rather than highlighting one player per team, we’re focusing on positional groups in each league that could become relevant this trade season.
Our thinking is straightforward: teams tend to be more willing to move a player when they’re dealing from an organizational strength; that isn’t always the case, mind you, but we find this exercise is generally a useful one heading into the mad season that is the trade deadline.
As always, this is more of an art than a science.
1. Dodgers catchers
Remember how the Dodgers signed catcher Will Smith to a long-term deal early in the season? That agreement, a 10-year pact worth $140 million, is slated to keep him in town through the 2033 campaign. In turn, it means that the Dodgers should be willing to move from their impressive collection of minor-league backstops.
The top name worth knowing here is Dalton Rushing, a former top-40 pick with patience and some pop who has absolutely passed the Double-A challenge. In most organizations, it wouldn’t be out of the question that he would debut late this season, with an eye on taking a more permanent role heading into next spring. With the Dodgers? It’s not exactly clear how he fits into their plans — or, really, if he does at all.
Beyond Rushing, the Dodgers also have Diego Cartaya and Thayron Liranzo to offer around. Cartaya has rebounded from a spotty 2023; he was recently bumped to Triple-A, and could conceivably make his debut (with Los Angeles or someone else) by season’s end. Liranzo, who just turned 21, hasn’t matched last season’s breakout statline. He’s still been an above-average hitter for the affiliate, however, and his massive power should help him secure a big-league future even if he’s forced off catcher over the coming years.
2. Braves right-handers
It’s a testament to the Braves that they’ve fielded a top-10 rotation this season despite getting just two starts from injured Cy Young Award candidate Spencer Strider. While Atlanta does have to account for what happens next — in terms of potential injuries the rest of the way, and in case Max Fried and/or Charlie Morton depart this winter — we think they could consider dealing from their crop of near-ready right-handers. The only problem is that their top players in this category each come with a catch.
Spencer Schwellenbach, a former second-round pick currently in the big-league rotation, has a subpar statline to date. He’s had his moments though, including a recent quality start against the Phillies, and his stuff is good enough that we believe it’s only a matter of time before he turns into a solid big-league starter. The Braves may want to hold onto Schwellenbach given that he’s already part of the roster. Fair enough.
Injuries have sidelined AJ Smith-Shawver (oblique) and Hurston Waldrep (elbow inflammation). Both have live arms and have already pitched in the majors. Although it’s not common for injured players to be dealt, we suppose it’s possible that a team could be OK with such an arrangement provided their medical staff signs off on the trade.
Even beyond that trio, the Braves could float Bryce Elder (an All-Star last season), Ian Anderson (part of their World Series title rotation), Drue Hackenberg, Lucas Braun, or a few others. Teams likely don’t value that group as highly as they do the three names above, but it’s fair to write that near-ready pitching is always in demand.
3. Giants left-side infielders
Matt Chapman has been San Francisco’s most productive player to date. He’s having his best offensive season since 2020, and he remains a stellar defensive third baseman. If we had to guess, he’s probably opting out of the $17 million he’s due next year in favor of re-entering the free-agent market and landing a fatter paycheck.
With that established, we understand if the Giants punt on this decision until the winter. We do think, at some point soon, the Giants have to figure out what their plans are with Casey Schmitt and Marco Luciano, two former top prospects stationed in Triple-A.
Schmitt, 25, is an outstanding defender whose bat has drawn scrutiny in the past. He scuffled in his big-league introduction last season, posting a miserable strikeout-to-walk ratio across 90 games. He’s had a good season at Triple-A this year, and surely there’s some team out there willing to overlook his so-so offense to get his glove into the lineup.
It’s possible that Luciano, 22, may be fatally flawed. He’s struck out nearly 30% of the time in Triple-A, and it’s not a great sign that such a high figure still represents a notable improvement over last year’s mark. Luciano can impact the baseball (though he hasn’t done it often enough this season), but he’s not really a shortstop and it’s hard to see his bat playing at another position based on the aforementioned strikeout tendencies.
4. Cardinals outfielders
We’ll round this piece out with a threadbare topic: the Cardinals’ outfield depth chart. It feels like the Cardinals have been overdue to trade from this group for a while now. Alec Burleson’s emergence is a fresh reminder that, eventually, St. Louis is going to have to sort through this mess and figure out who is worth keeping and who isn’t.
For clarity’s sake, we have three particular players in mind. Once Lars Nootbaar returns, the Cardinals will have Dylan Carlson (a past subject of trade rumors), Jordan Walker, and Victor Scott II in a state of limbo. Carlson and Walker are former first-round picks who haven’t lived up to expectations at the big-league level, and the speedy Scott has had such a dreadful year offensively that the Cardinals have instead staffed center field with a different glove-first player — Michael Siani, possessor of a sub-.600 OPS.
If we had to guess, Carlson may end up being the first odd man out. He’s an obvious change-of-scenery candidate having another poor offensive showing this year — to the extent that Siani is clearly the superior choice in center. Carlson will also finish the season with more than four years of service time, meaning that if he’s not traded by the deadline, we could be talking about him as a non-tender candidate this winter.
