The Olympic-qualifying tournaments are over, the exhibition games are in the books, and now the games start to count. The Olympic men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Games is set to begin, and it could be the toughest field of competitors we’ve ever seen at this stage. The 12 teams will spend the next two weeks fighting for a gold medal, with everyone trying to dethrone the United States, who have won the competition four consecutive times.
Team USA is obviously in a class of their own and will be heavily favored to walk away with a fifth straight gold medal. But if we learned anything from the exhibition games leading up to the Paris Games, it’s that the rest of the world is starting to catch up. There are several legitimate contenders who can match up well with the United States, from the host team in France with Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert to Nikola Jokic and Serbia, as well as the Canadians who boast the second most NBA players on their roster led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Then there’s Australia’s roster, which is also littered with NBA guys, and of course, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece, who you can never truly count out.
As the Paris Olympics open, here’s how the 12 teams competing in the men’s basketball tournament rank.
12. Japan
When Japan was in the Olympics in 2020 as the host country, it went 0-3 in the competition. They earned a ticket to the Paris Games by finishing the highest of any Asian country in the FIBA World Cup last summer (19th) and will be looking to get at least one game in the win column this time around with Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe leading the way. They had a successful tune-up game against South Korea, beating them by eight points, but fell apart to Germany in a 21-point loss and followed that up with a 19-point loss to Serbia. Both those teams figure to compete for a medal, but given that Japan wasn’t able to keep the scores close, they might face a similar result as the 2020 Tokyo Games.
11. Brazil
Brazil decided to be different after winning its Olympic-qualifying tournament and not play a single tune-up game before the Paris Games. It’s an interesting strategy, given they will have gone about three weeks without playing a single game. They caught fire from 3-point range in that championship game against Latvia, with Leonardo Meindl going 4 of 7 from beyond the arc and the Brazilians shooting 54% on 3s in the game. Brazil’s clearly hoping that hot shooting traveled with them to France, as they haven’t played since then. Or they could go cold to start the tournament, which could lead to an early exit for the Brazilians.
10. Puerto Rico
There was great fanfare as Puerto Rico qualified for its first Olympics in 20 years, and this trip to Paris will be somewhat of a full circle moment, as they’ll once again face Team USA in the group stage, the team they shockingly beat during the 2004 Athens Olympics with Carlos Arroyo leading the way. This time, Jose Alvarado will try to spoil the United States’ day, but they’ll need a couple of near-perfect games in order to make it out of a group that also includes Serbia and a South Sudan team that almost beat the Americans in an exhibition match not too long ago. But Puerto Rico has defied the odds before, so it’s never smart to count them out in any matchup. They kept things close against Canada in a tune-up game, losing by just 10 points, but they struggled against Australia and Spain, showing that they still have some ground to make up against some of these top teams.
9. South Sudan
In the previous ranking, South Sudan was last, but boy, have they proved some people wrong in their place in this tournament. They’re entering the Olympics on a high, having almost just beaten the United States in their final exhibition match before the Paris Games. Had it not been for LeBron James showcasing why he’s considered by many to be the greatest basketball player of all time, South Sudan would have even more attention surrounding them than they do already. They beat Portugal and Great Britain in their tune-up games and will once again face the Americans in a tough group that also features Puerto Rico and Serbia. It will be a tough road ahead for the South Sudanese, but they showed they won’t be a layup in Group C.
8. Greece
You could argue Greece should be higher because while they barely beat Puerto Rico by two points in a tune-up game, it was without Giannis Antetokounmpo. But even with Giannis, they lost to Serbia by 22 points in their final exhibition game. However, Greece avoids Team USA, France and Serbia in the group stage, a major blessing for their chances to advance far in this tournament. Canada and Australia will be stiff competition for Giannis and Greece, and so will Spain, but we’ve seen how dominant the Greek Freak can be when the game is on the line, and frankly, neither of those teams possesses a player qualified to slow him down.
7. Spain
The Spaniards couldn’t have asked for a better string of tune-up matches ahead of the Paris Games. They routed Puerto Rico, beat Argentina, too, and have a roster that is equipped to challenge the other three teams in their group — Canada, Greece, and Australia. Santi Aldama led the way for Spain in that win vs. Puerto Rico, and with a roster that features current and past NBA players like Willy Hernangomez, Usman Garuba, Lorenzo Brown, Rudy Fernandez and Juancho Hernangomez, Spain shouldn’t be taken lightly at the Olympics.
6. Australia
Australia boasts a handful of NBA talent on their roster and almost beat the United States in a tune-up game prior to the Olympics. They fell behind early in that game but forced Team USA into turnovers, grabbed rebounds and almost walked away with a win. After that loss, Australia went on to convincingly beat Puerto Rico, Serbia, and perhaps most shockingly, France by one point. The French are considered to be amongst the strongest teams in this tournament, but Australia reminded everyone that they thrive on the international stage. Led by Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Matthew Dellavedova, Josh Green, Dante Exum, Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels, the Aussies could challenge for a medal after walking away with a bronze medal at the 2020 Tokyo Games.
5. France
The French did not look good in their exhibition games leading up to the Paris Games. It could mean nothing, or it could mean that France shouldn’t take any team lightly, regardless of the size and talent they possess. Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert are still the two best defenders in this tournament, and that can carry them a long way, but losses to Serbia, Australia and Canada showed this won’t be a cakewalk for the host team. Because of their poor showing in their tune-up games, they could slot lower, but the fact that they’re in a group with Brazil and Japan, as well as having home-court advantage bumps them above a team like Australia,.
4. Germany
Germany routed both the Netherlands and Japan, and kept things really close with the United States in their tune-up match. They’re the reigning world champions after coming out on top at the FIBA World Cup last summer, but that carries more weight than just the title. Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder lead this team, and against the Americans, Wagner had 18 points, seven rebounds, four assists and three steals. They shouldn’t have a difficult time getting through the group stage and could be contending for a medal at the end of the tournament.
3. Serbia
As soon as Germany was crowned world champions last summer, defeating Serbia in the championship game, many immediately thought about how dangerous Serbia was going to be at this year’s Olympic Games because of who they were missing, namely Nikola Jokic. Well, he’s here now, and just like in the NBA, he’s wreaking havoc and the guys around him fit seamlessly. They dispatched France by 12 points, blew out Japan by 19 points, and walked all over Greece to the tune of a 22-point win. They lost to the United States, a team they will face in the group stage, but they looked far superior against every other team they faced. Between Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic, as well as a strong roster around them that has already proven it can compete on the biggest stage, Serbia could very well get to that gold medal match.
2. Canada
The Canadians rank this high because of the NBA-level talent they possess. It stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray, and also features RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Lugentz Dort. They’ve already shown they can beat France, they handled Puerto Rico easily, and against the United States, while the game got away from them in spurts, they managed to hold their own. The Canadians will have some tough matchups against Greece, Australia and Spain but should finish their group on top. We could be heading for a USA vs. Canada gold medal match if they can handle business against the other contenders.
1. USA
Even after a wobbly stretch of exhibition games, the United States still enter Olympic competition on top. This is, without a doubt, the best roster assembled since the Redeem Team in 2008, but we saw against South Sudan, Canada, Germany and Australia that it wouldn’t exactly be a cakewalk for Team USA like it has in the past. First-time Olympian Stephen Curry said as much during the opening ceremony on Friday, saying the gap has closed between them and the rest of the world, as many of these rosters featured at the Olympics also boast several high-level NBA guys. It means we won’t see as many blowouts when the United States plays, but it also means that one wrong step and the U.S. could end up on the wrong side of things. South Sudan tested them once already, and they’ll face them again in the group stage, as well as a Puerto Rico team that beat them in 2004, but this is a team that features the NBA’s all-time leading scorer in LeBron James, Team USA’s all-time leading scorer in Kevin Durant, as well as a bevy of NBA champions and All-Stars. Team USA will always be the favorites in this competition until another country can prove they can take the Americans down.
Click here for CBS Sports’ dedicated coverage of the 2024 Paris Olympics, complete with an official medal count, Team USA tracker, stories, videos and much more.
