Two down, one to go for Team USA in the group stage of the 2024 Paris Olympics. The star-laden American roster has picked up double-digit victories over South Sudan and Serbia thus far, and now, with only one Group C game left, the knockout stage is nearly at hand. Before we get to the single-elimination portion of the tournament, though, Team USA has one last bit of business: a game against Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Team USA vs. Puerto Rico
Time: 11:15 a.m. ET | Date: Saturday, Aug. 3
TV channel: NBC | Live stream: fubo (try for free)
Odds: USA -34.5 | O/U: 189.5
To call Puerto Rico an underdog would be a massive understatement. Team USA is favored by 34.5 points as of this writing. Puerto Rico is ranked No. 16 in the world by FIBA, a fitting thematic number given the extreme rarity of No. 16 seeds defeating No. 1 seeds in March Madness. It would take a historic effort for Puerto Rico to challenge Team USA.
A quick reminder of how the Olympic format works: 12 teams are divided into three groups of four. Each group plays a round-robin schedule against the other three teams in its group. Two points are awarded for a win and one point for a loss. Tiebreakers within the group are decided head-to-head.
Based on total points, the top two teams from each group, plus the top two third-place teams, advance to the quarterfinals, at which point it becomes a single-elimination knockout tournament. In the case of a tie between teams from opposing groups for the two wild card spots, it’s broken by the total score differential. Got it? Good.
Now here’s what to know about Team USA vs. Puerto Rico:
Puerto Rico has pulled off the upset before
Team USA has sent NBA players to the Olympics nine times. It has won gold in seven of those tournaments, and it is hoping to do so for an eighth time in 2024. The one tournament in which Team USA failed to win gold came in 2004. The ominous beginning to that disappointing run? A 92-73 loss to Puerto Rico.
The teams involved here are obviously quite different. Carlos Arroyo led that game in scoring with 24 points, and the only holdover from either roster is LeBron James, who was a teenager at the time and is now pushing 40. These two teams haven’t met in the Olympics since then, even though they squared off in a tune-up for the 2023 FIBA World Cup last August. So in a way, this is a long overdue revenge opportunity for James and Team USA, but that history is just proof that Team USA can’t take Puerto Rico lightly. Fortunately, they don’t plan to.
Point differential matters
Team USA doesn’t just want to win on Saturday. It wants to dominate. “We want the No. 1 seed,” USA coach Steve Kerr said at practice Friday. “It gives you the best matchup in the quarterfinals. So if we drop down to two or three — which I think is unlikely, but we’ve got to take care of our business — we possibly have a much tougher opponent.”
A win would take Team USA to 3-0 in the group stage, but there will be other undefeated teams from the group pool. The first tiebreaker for seeding in the knockout stage is the head-to-head record, but the second is point differential. Team USA’s +43 margin right now gives it the best point differential in the field, but if that changes before Saturday’s game, expect Team USA to play for the blowout just to be safe.
Puerto Rico’s best player is playing hurt
Puerto Rico isn’t exactly deep with NBA talent, but its best professional player is Jose Alvarado. He led them through the qualifying tournament to get here, but his Olympic debut nearly ended very badly in the opener against South Sudan when he needed to be helped off of the floor with an apparent ankle injury.
Eventually, he returned and did so at a high level. He scored 26 points and added five assists and two steals in that loss. He then struggled to shoot just 1-of-6 in 17 minutes during their follow-up, a 107-66 blowout at the hands of Serbia. It’s not clear how much Puerto Rico can expect out of Alvarado at this point. If he’s hobbled, any upset hopes Puerto Rico might’ve had might be gone.
Speaking of injuries, Jrue Holiday is questionable
On a roster full of superstars, perhaps the most important player on the team is the one who’s comfortable doing the dirty work. Jrue Holiday was a key part of the 2020 gold medal-winning Team USA roster, and he’s been essential so far in 2024 as well. However, according to Kerr, Holiday is questionable after rolling an ankle.
If Holiday does indeed miss the Puerto Rico game (or any subsequent matchups), Team USA’s decision to bring in Derrick White to replace Kawhi Leonard would be even further vindicated. The two Boston Celtics guards bring similar defensive skill sets to the table, and White has played well in a bench role thus far. If anyone on this roster is equipped to replicate what Holiday does, it’s White, but for now, the hope is that White will be able to play.
Steve Kerr has already settled on a new starting lineup… pending Holiday’s health
Thus far in the tournament, the story has been less about who Kerr has played and more about who he hasn’t. Jayson Tatum was a DNP-CD in the opener against Serbia. Joel Embiid was against South Sudan. As dominant as those two players are in the NBA, this roster is so deep that someone was always going to have to sacrifice minutes, and Kerr has handled that on a game-by-game basis. Regardless, it has caused a bit of controversy, and Kerr tried to head that off by naming a starting five against Puerto Rico ahead of time: Holiday, James, Embiid, Stephen Curry and Devin Booker.
Now, if Holiday misses the game, that changes things. White has the skill set closest to Holiday’s. Tatum started at forward against South Sudan. Kevin Durant is the best player on the team that hasn’t started yet, and he is Team USA’s greatest ever Olympian. In other words, Kerr will potentially have another tough choice on his hands even after trying to get out ahead of it by pre-naming a starting lineup. Hopefully, Holiday is healthy enough to give it a go and prevent any further lineup questions from arising.
