The Big 12 is expanding its membership for the second consecutive year as Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah join the fold from the Pac-12. After adding BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF in the last realignment cycle, the Big 12 will see its league membership expand to 16 with Oklahoma and Texas having departed for the SEC.
While Arizona, Arizona State and Utah will be making their respective debuts in the Big 12 this fall, Colorado will be joining a conference where they have history. Colorado was one of the founding members of the Big Eight in 1947 and spent 15 years as a member of the Big 12 before departing for the Pac-12 in 2011.
Utah enters as the co-favorite to win the Big 12, alongside Kansas State. Former San Jose State coach Brent Brennan takes over an Arizona program that won 10 games last year for the first time since 2014, while ASU coach Kenny Dillingham and Colorado coach Deion Sanders look to elevate their programs to new heights in Year 2 after both failed to reach a bowl game last season.
With the range being so vast for the Big 12 newcomers, here’s a look at the best and worst-case scenarios for the league’s additions.
Arizona
Best case: Brennan proves he was one of the best hires of the 2023 coaching cycle and helps Arizona win double-digit games in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history. QB Noah Fifita solidifies himself as a Heisman Trophy contender and Tetairoa McMillan becomes the top wide receiver in the country. If those two events happen, Arizona should be one of the top contenders for at least an at-large berth in the College Football Playoff. If the Wildcats can get through the scheduling gauntlet of Kansas State, Utah and Texas Tech to open up conference play, they will be in great shape to make a run in the CFP
Worst case: On the flip side, Arizona could regress in Brennan’s first season at the helm because of the brutal schedule to start conference play. The Wildcats face Kansas State and Utah both on the road during the first four weeks of the season. When Jedd Fisch departed the program for Washington, he brought cornerback Ephesians Prysock, incoming freshman quarterback Demond Williams Jr., running backs Jordan Washington and Jonah Coleman, and edge Isaiah Ward with him to Seattle. The Wildcats could be due for some hiccups in their first season as a member.
Arizona State
Best case: Cameron Skattebo becomes a household name and Arizona State is a fringe bowl game contender. Skattebo is one of the best players in college football you probably haven’t heard of. Skattebo leads a running back room that includes Colorado transfer Alton McCaskill and former blue-chip RB Raleek Brown. After splitting time as a running back and wide receiver at USC, Brown elected to stay on the West Coast and transferred to ASU for a larger role. Although it will be an uphill climb due to the strength of schedule and talent lost via the transfer portal (more on that later), relying on the running back room is ASU’s best chance to reach a bowl game in 2024.
Worst case: After landing what seemed to be its quarterback of the present and future, Jaden Rashada transferred to Georgia after Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt presumably won the starting job during spring practice. The Sun Devils also lost DL BJ Green to Colorado, TE Jalin Conyers to Texas Tech, WR Elijhah Badger to Florida and safety Jordan Clark to Notre Dame. ASU went 3-9 in its final season as a member of the Pac-12, and the current schedule is shaping up to be even more difficult in 2024. The worst-case scenario is ASU can’t overcome the talent lost via the transfer portal and finishes at the bottom of the Big 12.
Colorado
Best case: Shedeur Sanders solidifies himself as a Heisman Trophy contender and the best quarterback in the upcoming draft, Travis Hunter has a standout season on both sides of the football, and Coach Prime helps Colorado reach a bowl game for only the fourth time since 2007.
Worst case: Sanders’ recruiting strategies have been unconventional, and they could catch up to the program as soon as this season. Although Colorado managed to sign five-star OL Jordan Seaton, high school recruiting has been put on the back burner in favor of the transfer portal. Colorado will have to replace all five of its starting offensive linemen (which could be a good thing) after last season’s unit allowed the most sacks per game (4.7) in the FBS. Colorado’s schedule is rigorous, with games against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State, Nebraska, Kansas State, Arizona, Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State on the slate. The worst-case scenario for the Buffaloes is they finish with a worse record than last season because Sanders is once again one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the country and the incoming transfer portal class doesn’t pan out.
Utah
Best case: Big 12 champs, which also would mean a top-4 seed in the expanded College Football Playoff. There’s a reason why Utah is receiving hype to win the conference this season, and it’s because star quarterback Cameron Rising is healthy. After missing the entire 2023 season, Rising is back in the fold alongside star tight end Brant Kuithe — who also missed last season due to injury. Utah’s defense routinely also ranks among the best in the sport. The Utes also avoid playing Kansas, Kansas State and Texas Tech in the regular season. The toughest matchup on the slate is a showdown at home against Iowa State on Nov. 23. If the Utes win that game and take care of business throughout the regular season, the floor should be a berth in the CFP.
Worst case: With games against FCS-Southern Utah, Baylor and Utah State to open the season, the Utes should have no trouble starting the season 3-0. The first real test of the slate comes against Oklahoma State on the road in Week 4, followed by a home game against Arizona. The worst-case scenario for the Utes is they head to Tempe on Oct. 11 to face ASU with a 3-2 record and drop a road game or two against Houston, Colorado, or UCF to close the season. At worst, Utah should finish with eight wins because the stars are aligned to reach the CFP. The only path to Utah winning fewer than eight games is if Rising or Kuithe misses significant time again.
