As the knockout stage begins in the men’s basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Team USA is a massive favorite. The Americans, in search of their fifth consecutive gold medal, largely coasted through the group stage, going 3-0. But the stakes have changed this week, with win-or-go-home basketball being played in France and some serious contenders — Canada, France and Germany among them — trying to knock Team USA off.
It’s going to take a significant upset to beat this version of Team USA. Not many teams on the list below are even guaranteed to get a shot at the U.S. based on the bracket, but if they do, which is the best bet to pull a stunner? You can make a case for five teams, and two of them will face each other on Tuesday in the quarterfinals as Canada goes up against France. Yes, it’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Victor Wembanyama with a spot in the final four on the line.
Below is all the info on that tasty quarterfinal matchup, plus a deeper dive into the five teams who could keep the gold medal off the necks of Team USA .
Where to watch Canada vs. France
Time: 12 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, Aug. 6
Location: Bercy Arena — Paris
TV channel: N/A | Live stream: Peacock, NBCOlympics.com
Odds: CAN -8, O/U: 163.5
We’re ranking the teams in order by how big of a threat they would pose to the United States in a one-game scenario, which is all this tournament comes down to. Let’s get to it.
1. Canada
- Gold medal odds (entering quarterfinals): +750
The Canadians got through the “Group of Death” unscathed, finishing 3-0 with a +20 point differential, and with the deepest roster of NBA talent outside the U.S. they are the next-best bet to win gold. Betting odds don’t always reflect true hierarchies, in this case, it is Canada that should most worry the Americans in a one-game scenario.
Germany is arguably the more stable team in terms of cohesion and having the most well-rounded attack, as the Canadians would likely struggle with the size of the Americans. But the bottom line is Canada has the deepest roster of NBA players outside the Americans, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander can be the best player on the floor no matter who’s on the other side. R.J. Barrett, who actually leads Canada in scoring during these Olympics, has been fantastic.
Defensively, the Canadians can legitimately match up with and potentially even frustrate the Americans on the perimeter with the likes of Lu Dort, Dillon Brooks, Nickiel Alexander-Walker, Andrew Nembhard and Barrett. Jamal Murray has not looked good, but in a one-game scenario, we’ve seen him take over a game. If he has the right game at the right time, Canada definitely has the firepower on both ends to knock off the Americans.
2. Germany
- Gold medal odds (entering quarterfinals): +850
You can make a strong case the Germans — who advanced to the semifinals by dispatching Greece on Tuesday — should be ranked above Canada on this list and at the sportsbooks. The depth of Canada’s talent gives it the edge, and the fact that it has an easier quarterfinal vs. Greece (Germany has to play France in its opener, while Canada gets Greece), but we potentially won’t have to speculate long as these two are on a semifinal collision course.
Germany won the 2023 World Cup and has been getting superstar performances out of Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner so far at the Olympics. Together, they’re averaging over 40 PPG, and both are getting into the lane with ease. Schroder is Germany’s version of Gilgeous-Alexander with his ability to control the entire game, even against a defense as stout as the Americans. He put up 20 points and nine assists through three group-play games.
Germany has an edge over Canada on the interior, where Daniel Theis, Moe Wagner and Johannes Voigtmann provide legit size and depth with the ability to stretch the floor, giving Schroder and Wagner their room to work.
3. Serbia
Gold medal odds (entering quarterfinals): +3400
The Americans walloped Serbia by 26 points in both teams’ group-play opener. That was the same margin of victory for the U.S. in its exhibition matchup with Serbia leading up to the Olympics. So why would the Serbians have any chance against the U.S. in a potential semifinal matchup? Because they have Nikola Jokic.
Jokic is the best player in the world. Serbia doesn’t use him the same way the Nuggets do, but he can still dictate an entire game. No single American player can defend him, and if Bogdan Bogdanovic, who led the Serbians in scoring through the group stage, were to get hot from 3 at the right time, yes, Servia would put a legit scare into the Americans.
The problem will be in the non-Jokic minutes, which Denver fans can relate to. Everyone saw the stat from the group-stage matchup, when Serbia matched the Americans 81-81 when Jokic was on the court. The problem was losing 29-3 in the minutes he spent on the bench. If — and this is a major IF — they could remedy maybe half of that while Jokic gets them to a, say, plus-10 in his court time, now we’re talking upset.
4. Australia
- Gold medal odds (entering quarterfinals): +7500
Australia doesn’t have the star power that France does in Victor Wembanyama, but based on what I’ve seen out of this tournament, I would give the Boomers a better shot at pulling an upset over the Americans. The Australians, who won Bronze at the last Olympics and are led by Josh Giddey, who has been superb, and Patty Mills, have way more perimeter punch than the French.
Dyson Daniels, Josh Green and Dante Exum can all create two-way havoc, Jock Landale can be a monster on the offensive glass, and don’t forget about Jack McVeigh, a bonafide gunner who splashed seven of his 14 3-pointers in the group stage. Australia is going to have to get through Serbia even to have a shot at the Americans, but there’s a world in which the Boomer could give the U.S. trouble on the right night.
5. France
- Gold medal odds (entering quarterfinals): +4600
Coming into the tournament, I thought France would play the U.S. for gold. Instead, they barely squeaked past Japan on a bogus end-of-game four-point play and then got trounced by Germany to land squarely in Canada’s quarterfinal sights.
In that game, France will likely hurt the Canadians pretty badly with its size, but the perimeter matchup should be a bloodbath of equal, if not greater, proportions. Independent of this quarterfinal matchup, it’s much harder to see France giving the Americans a real game in a potential matchup down the line, even should it get through Canada and all the way to the gold-medal game.
The guard play just isn’t there. I thought Evan Fournier could bring more to this environment. Nando De Colo isn’t scaring anyone anymore. The one blueprint the French would have for upsetting the U.S. is if Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert are so defensively dominant inside that the U.S. is forced to lean heavily on jump shots, and then they go cold. All of them. At the same time. It’s not likely to happen.
