As the College Football Playoff field expands from four teams to 12, automatic bids are at stake for the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Furthermore, the four highest-ranked conference champions will get a bye into the CFP quarterfinals. That perk will likely ensure that the sport’s most dominant and highly ranked teams are locked in during conference championship week, even if their at-large bids for the CFP appear are secure. If the nation’s top-ranked team takes a title game loss to a hungry conference challenger, they will miss out on a bye. In some cases, conference title games could be de-facto CFP play-in games.
The consolidation of the sport’s landscape into four power conferences has also created more parity atop the conference championship odds sheets. Six teams from the ACC have preseason odds of +1000 or better to win the conference, four Big Ten teams have odds of +750 or better, and eight SEC teams have odds of +1800 or better. Deepest of all is the Big 12, which features 10 teams with preseason odds of +1800 or better to win a league that added four teams from the Pac-12 amid the departures heavyweight programs Oklahoma and Texas for the SEC.
As a result of realignment, there is less certainty than ever over who the conference champions will be, and there is value to be found from across the odds sheet for those looking to wager on league title races. Against that backdrop, let’s take a look at who may be undervalued in the conference title odds this season.
ACC: NC State
Odds to win ACC championship: +700
NC State’s schedule registers as one of the ACC’s easiest at a time when the program has upgraded its quarterback play with Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall. Without Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville or SMU on the conference slate, Dave Doeren’s club is an obvious contender to reach the conference championship game. If the Wolfpack get there, the league’s newfound parity should create a matchup that NC State can win. The conference’s top seven teams are all ranked between No. 13 and No. 29 in the Preseason CBS Sports 134.
Aside from a Week 4 trip to Clemson, a season-ending game with North Carolina is the Wolfpack’s toughest conference matchup, and the Tar Heels were picked to finish eighth in the league’s preseason poll. This program hasn’t won an ACC title since 1979, but NC State has been consistently knocking on the door under Doreen by winning six or more conference games in four of the last seven seasons. At this price, it’s worth rolling the dice on 2024 being the breakthrough season.
Big Ten: Michigan
Odds to win Big Ten championship: +750
Star running back Donovan Edwards is still on the team, and the defense is still full of future NFL players. So while the Wolverines are in a season of tremendous transition following their 15-0 march to the national title, they are nonetheless a club with championship potential. First-year coach Sherrone Moore’s fingerprints will remain on the offense, and stars like defensive tackle Mason Graham, linebacker Jaishawn Barham and cornerback Will Johnson will make finding the end zone against Michigan a chore.
The schedule is tougher than last season’s slate, but a Week 2 visit from Texas is irrelevant in the Big Ten title race, and the Wolverines have the good fortune of playing USC and Oregon at home. The toughest road game before a season-ending trip to Ohio State is Washington, and the Huskies are going through even more change than Michigan. It’s rare that you can get the defending national champions at this price to win their league.
Big 12: Oklahoma State
Odds to win Big 12 championship: +800
Oklahoma State played in two of the last three Big 12 title games while Oklahoma and Texas were part of the conference. Now the Longhorns and Sooners are gone, and the Cowboys are loaded with returners from a 10-win team. A mere split against Utah and Kansas State to close September would put the Pokes on an easily manageable path to the conference title game.
In the past, a strong and potentially immovable obstacle might’ve awaited the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game, like last season when Texas stomped Oklahoma State 49-21. But now? There is no clearly dominant force in the conference, which creates an excellent opportunity for an established roster with great continuity on its coaching staff to bust down the door and with the league.
SEC: Alabama
Odds to win SEC championship: +750
It’s only natural to have questions about Alabama amid the program’s transition from Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer. The wide receivers and secondary are two obvious points of uncertainty. But DeBoer owns an obscene 104-12 record as a coach and guided Washington to an 11-2 mark in 2022 during his first season with that program. The Huskies were coming off a 4-8 campaign that included the midseason firing of coach Jimmy Lake, and they were predicted to finish sixth in the Pac-12, but DeBoer nearly tripled UW’s win total in Year 1.
By comparison, the transition at Alabama is setting up much nicer for DeBoer, who is the perfect coach to unlock star quarterback Jalen Milroe’s maximum potential. This isn’t a full-on rebuild. It’s just a touch-up. And if Alabama knocks off Georgia at home on Sept. 28, it will put itself on the fast track to the SEC Championship Game.
