A pair of ranked women’s strawweight contenders will meet when fourth-ranked Mackenzie Dern meets sixth-ranked Marina Rodriguez on Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez. Dern enters the fight with an 11-1 record, including seven wins by submission. Rodriguez has compiled a 14-1-2 mark with seven wins by decision.
The preliminary UFC fight card from the UFC Apex facility is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET with the main UFC card starting at 4 p.m. ET. Dern is a -170 favorite (risk $170 to win $100), while Rodriguez is a +145 underdog in the latest Dern vs. Rodriguez odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The over-under for total rounds expected is set at 2.5. Before making any Dern vs. Rodriguez picks or UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez bets, make sure you check out the MMA predictions from SportsLine MMA expert Andrew Gombas.
Gombas is a former NCAA wrestler who taps into his experience on the mat to help understand and dissect the X’s and O’s of MMA matchups in a manner that sets him apart from other MMA analysts. He started the MMA handicapping service MMA Knockout Bets in 2018 and has shown a profit every year since.
With more than 1,200 selections tracked by the third-party monitoring service Bet MMA, he has shown a 10 percent return on investment for his followers. In 2020, $100 bettors who tailed his picks were up $9,200.
Last week at UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker, Gombas went 7-4 for 2.95 units profit and also hit the main event on Thiago Santos. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, he has locked in on UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez from every angle and released his top selections. A successful parlay of these picks would result in a payout of nearly 16-1. You can head to SportsLine now to see all of Gombas’ MMA picks.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez preview
Gombas knows this should be an entertaining matchup between 115-pound strawweight contenders. Dern is known for her grappling skills, which she used to perfection in her last matchup, a win by submission over Nina Nunes at UFC: Vettori vs. Holland in April. She stopped her opponent by using an armbar at 4:48 of the first round. Four of her last five wins were by submission.
Dern is an American MMA and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert and a former world No. 1 IBJJF competitor and is currently ranked sixth among the women’s divisions. She is 12th in UFC women’s pound-for-pound rankings. She began her MMA career in July 2016 after compiling a 75-25-1 grappling record. Dern’s only professional loss was in October 2019, when she lost a unanimous decision to Amanda Ribas. Dern has won her four fights since.
Rodriguez, 34, is a dangerous striker who has posted six wins by knockout, including in her January win over Amanda Ribas. In that bout, she quickly established herself on her feet and landed the winning punch just 54 seconds into the second round. The win earned her Performance of the Night honors at UFC 257. She followed that up with a unanimous decision victory over Michelle Waterson in May.
The Brazilian began her MMA career in 2015 and fought mainly in Brazil. She compiled a 9-0 record before competing on Dana White’s Contender Series Brazil. Rodriguez’s lone loss came in July 2020, when she lost a split decision to Carla Esparza at UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till. So who is Gombas backing? His picks can only be seen at SportsLine.
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez predictions
We’ll share one of Gombas’ UFC Fight Night predictions here: He’s is backing Sabina Mazo (-170) to beat Mariya Agapova by KO/TKO in a women’s flyweight showdown.
Mazo (9-2) joined UFC in 2019 and lost her first fight against Maryna Moroz by decision before ratting off three straight victories. However, the “Colombian Queen” lost her only bout in 2021 to Alexis Davis, though that was fought at bantamweight. The former Legacy Fighting Alliance flyweight champion is likely to try to turn her fight against Agapova into a technical boxing match, says Gombas.
Agapova (9-2), who hasn’t fought in more than a year, is also coming off a loss as a massive favorite against Shana Dobson, a fighter Mazo defeated by unanimous decision in August 2019. With Agapova’s average fight time more than six minutes shorter than Mazo’s, Gombas believes the Kazakhstan-born competitor will likely blitz the favored fighter from the outset and try to end the fight early.
“If Mazo can last the initial onslaught, she probably takes over late,” Gombas told SportsLine.
How to make UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez picks
Gombas also has strong picks for Dern vs. Rodriguez and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing one big underdog to pull off a massive upset by KO/TKO. You can see all of Gombas’ UFC picks and MMA analysis at SportsLine.
Who wins Dern vs. Rodriguez? And which underdog is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Andrew Gombas’ best bets for Saturday, all from the MMA expert who was all over Thiago Santos’ win over Johnny Walker last week, and find out.
UFC Fight Night odds, card
Mackenzie Dern (-170) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+145)
Randy Brown (-230) vs. Jared Gooden (+190)
Tim Elliott (+160) vs. Matheus Nicolau (-200)
Sabina Mazo (-170) vs. Mariya Agapova (+145)
Phil Hawes (-330) vs. Deron Winn (+260)
Chris Gutierrez (-260) vs. Felipe Colares (+210)
Alexander Romanov (-625) vs. Jared Vanderaa (+450)
Damon Jackson (-175) vs. Charles Rosa (+150)
Steve Garcia (-310) vs. Charlie Ontiveros (+250)
