NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2021: Model loving Patriots, Packers

There are two games on the Week 5 NFL schedule featuring two teams with winning records, but the headline matchup will see a 2-2 team hosting a 3-1 squad. The Chiefs will welcome the Bills to Arrowhead Stadium, where Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite in the Week 5 NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. It’s a matchup of last year’s AFC Championship Game and could be a preview of this season’s conference title game.

The Chiefs are 1-3 against the spread this year, so can you confidently place your Week 5 NFL bets on Kansas City covering against a surging Bills team? Which side should you lean towards in the six other games with NFL spreads of a field goal or less? All of the NFL lines are listed below, and before making any Week 5 NFL picks on these games or others, be sure to see the Week 5 NFL predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Patriots (-9) cover the spread against the Texans in almost 60 percent of simulations. Both teams are coming off losses but looked drastically different while getting them. New England hung with the Super Bowl champs until the very end, while Houston suffered its most lopsided defeat in franchise history, falling 40-0 to Buffalo.

The Texans have nothing to hang their hats on entering Week 5 and rank among the bottom five in points scored, yards gained, points allowed and yards allowed. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills threw four interceptions last week and now faces a Patriots defense that has historically dominated rookie quarterbacks. That includes the Jets’ Zach Wilson, who threw four picks and was sacked four times versus New England in Week 2.

Another one of its Week 5 NFL predictions: The Packers (-3) cover on the road against the Bengals in a matchup of 3-1 teams. After scoring just three points in the opener against the Saints, Green Bay is averaging 30.6 per game over its last three contests. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been sensational during Green Bay’s three-game winning streak, throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions during that span. In addition to an efficient offense, the Packers feature a formidable defense, giving up 311.5 yards per game on average, the sixth-best mark in the NFL.

Plus, the Packers have been a tough out on the road, winning 10 of their last 14 games away from home. The model has also taken into account that Green Bay is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 games against opponents from the AFC North. SportsLine’s model shows Rodgers throwing for 266 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in the Packers covering the spread in over 50 percent of simulations. 

How to make Week 5 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,900 since its inception, and find out.

Week 5 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Sunday, Oct. 10

Jets at Falcons (-2.5, 45)

Dolphins at Buccaneers (-10, 48)

Eagles at Panthers (-3, 45)

Saints at Washington (+2, 43.5)

Titans at Jaguars (+4.5, 48.5)

Lions at Vikings (-10, 49)

Broncos at Steelers (PK, 39.5)

Packers at Bengals (+3, 50.5)

Patriots at Texans (+9, 39.5)

Bears at Raiders (-4.5, 44)

Browns at Chargers (-2, 47)

Giants at Cowboys (-7, 52)

49ers at Cardinals (-6, 49)

Bills at Chiefs (-2.5, 56.5)

Monday, Oct. 11

Colts at Ravens (-7, 45.5)