We’re now down to exactly one month left in the 2024 Major League Baseball season, as the final day of the regular season is set for Sept. 29. Once the dust has settled on finale day, what kind of a playoff bracket will we be left with? I’m here to take a crack at that.
AL East
It’s a one-game lead for the Yankees now. The Orioles have an easier schedule the rest of the way and there are three head-to-head games here, but I’m inclined to go with the Yankees here due to the pitching staff of the Orioles having struggled so mightily in the last two months. It also looks like the winner of this division will end up with the best record in the AL, if not the majors.
AL Central
Even with the Guardians getting the comeback win on Wednesday — pushing them back to a one-game lead over the Royals and 3.5-game lead over the Twins — I’m done trusting them. They’ve been well under .500 since late June and that’s not a small sample. That’s just who they are now. The Royals have three more cracks at them and the Twins get them four more times. I’ve got the Guardians falling all the way down to third place here. With the Royals and Twins, it’s a toss up, but the Royals have a much more difficult schedule. I’ll say that the Twins find a way to pull this one out.
AL West
Not only am I sticking with the Astros here, but I don’t even think it’ll be close despite it only being 3.5 games right now. Pathetic effort from the Mariners since having a 10-game lead.
AL wild cards
Whoever finishes second in the East is going to be the top wild-card team, which means I’m going with the Orioles here. I have no faith in the Mariners, while I believe the Red Sox don’t have what it takes, either. So that leaves the three AL Central teams to duke it out for the division title with the two runners-up taking the wild-card spots. I said above the Guardians will finish in third place, so they get the No. 6 seed, leaving No. 5 for the Royals.
AL byes
As noted in the AL East, the winner of that division very likely ends up with the best record, so the Yankees will be the top seed. I’m going to say that there’s enough of the AL Central teams bloodying one another that the Astros end up with the second bye.
NL East
The Braves have a shot at this thing, especially with four head-to-head games remaining this weekend — the Phillies lead by five — but I think the Phillies are in the process of righting the proverbial ship and will nail this thing down with relative ease.
NL Central
This is over. The Brewers have a nine-game lead and are taking the Central again.
NL West
The Diamondbacks and Padres catching fire for the second half has made this into a legitimate three-team race. I’m incredibly excited to watch it unfold. The Dodgers deal with the Diamondbacks four times and Padres three times while the Padres and D-backs face each other three times. Ultimately, I think the Dodgers are able to hold on, but I’m very open to being wrong here.
NL wild cards
The Cubs are absolutely on fire right now, but I think they have too deep a hole from which to climb (5.5 games). I can’t see a scenario where either the Padres or Diamondbacks fall out, so this just becomes a question of whether the Braves can hold off the Mets. They have three head-to-head games left and the Braves lead by four games. They just have so many question marks with their injuries and thin lineup and possibly thin rotation, it’s hard to trust the Braves. But after the Mets’ back-breaking loss on Wednesday in addition to the Braves’ playing great baseball right now, I’m inclined to believe this one stays as it is.
NL byes
The Phillies are going to grab the top record in baseball while the winner of the NL West is very likely to hold off the Brewers for the second-best record, which means I’ve got the Dodgers in the two-hole.
12-team bracket
American League
Byes: Yankees (1) and Astros (2)
Wild Card Series: Guardians (6) at Twins (3)
Wild Card Series: Royals (5) at Orioles (4)
National League
Byes: Phillies (1) and Dodgers (2)
Wild Card Series: Braves (6) at Brewers (3)
Wild Card Series: Diamondbacks (5) at Padres (4)
We’ll see the real bracket in just over four weeks. Until then, stay up to date with our MLB playoff picture.
