Just three weeks remain in the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season. The playoffs will be here before we know it, but there’s more hardware on the line than a World Series ring. How might the races for the major awards be shaping up?
Well, several of them seem like they are en route to easy wins. Things can obviously change in three weeks, but my general feeling right now is all the non-Rookie awards are all but sewn up barring anything extreme, though maybe we have a bit more drama coming in the National League MVP than we previously thought.
Let’s get to it.
AL MVP
He is slumping right now, but it still seems like this will be Aaron Judge. The Yankees slugger leads the majors with 51 homers and 124 RBI in 138 games. He also leads the majors in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and then obviously OPS and OPS+. Total bases and WAR, too.
It’s just a monster season and he’s done a remarkable job along with Juan Soto in holding up the rest of a lackluster Yankees lineup. Speaking of Soto, he’s also in the mix, though behind Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals.
Witt has fallen a bit off his torrid pace out of the All-Star break — how could he not? — but is still hitting .339/.393/.611 (174 OPS+) with 40 doubles, 11 triples, 30 homers, 97 RBI, 117 runs and 28 steals. He leads the majors in hits, runs and average. He trails Judge by 0.5 WAR in Baseball-Reference’s version (generally our default here), but he does lead Judge by 0.1 in FanGraphs’ calculation. Basically, both versions are within the margin of error and so any difference is negligible.
Gunnar Henderson could leap into the mix with a hot finish, too, but right now it’s Judge in first, Witt and second and then a decent gap.
NL MVP
There’s a lot of yelling from Queens and surrounding buroughs, but this still feels like Shohei Ohtani. I do not, however, necessarily think this one is a “case closed” situation just yet, though, the more I dive into it.
Francisco Lindor has made an admirable run and captivated the Mets fan base. I’ve long been a fan and was incredibly annoyed when some people were acting like the Mets got so ripped off in that trade. He’s an amazing player and he’ll make an outstanding second-place finisher. I think. Jurickson Profar deserves mention, as did Ketel Marte before his injury ruined it for him.
But let’s focus on Lindor vs. Ohtani. It is closer than I thought it was upon further examination, even if it starts out looking like a blowout.
Ohtani is hitting .290/.375/.613 (175 OPS+). Lindor is hitting .274/.343/.501 (138 OPS+).
Lindor has 38 doubles, a triple and 30 homers for 287 total bases. Ohtani has 30 doubles, four triples and 44 homers for 334 total bases.
Lindor is 26 for 30 in stolen bases. Ohtani is 46 for 50.
Ohtani has 99 RBI and 111 runs. Lindor has 84 RBI and 98 runs.
So far it’s a blowout, right? Lindor looks like a 30-30 guy, but Ohtani might become the first 50-50 guy.
Lindor has been off-the-charts great since the Mets started playing well. They have actually had the best record in baseball since June 2. He’s been their rock and had tons of clutch plays. That’s where the emotion factors in and it’s why there’s so much fight for Lindor to win the award from the Mets fan base. I love the passion, too.
It’s just that the Dodgers have been one of the best teams in baseball all year and Ohtani has been there every step of the way, through all the pitching staff injuries and the Mookie Betts injury and the Freddie Freeman absence and the Max Muncy injury and so much other stuff.
For every argument we’ve made so far for Lindor, Ohtani has a better one. In some cases a much better one.
And so it boils down to this: Ohtani is a DH. Lindor is a superb defensive shortstop.
It comes down to how much you value that gap in production. Lindor provides a bunch on defense and Ohtani doesn’t even play the field. Can you quantify it along with their offensive production and come up with which player is more valuable?
It’s incredibly difficult. WAR attempts to do so. Ohtani leads Lindor in Baseball-Reference’s version, 7.0 to 6.3. Lindor, though, leads in FanGraphs’, 7.3 to 6.6. Hilariously, if you added them up (you aren’t supposed to do that, I’m just making a point), they end up in a tie at 13.6. This is what they’d describe as “too close to call” in November.
Basically, good luck.
Maybe the next three weeks will give a more definitive answer and it’s entirely possible — as ridiculous as it sounds — that 50-50 or not determines this.
AL Cy Young
This is Tarik Skubal‘s award to lose right now. The Tigers ace leads the league in wins, ERA, strikeouts, ERA+ and WAR. He’s second in WHIP. He’s 16-4 on a .500-ish team. He’s seventh in innings pitched, but the gap to first isn’t large enough to really justify looking elsewhere. The difference at ERA is 2.51 to Ronel Blanco’s 3.03. The second-best WAR among AL pitchers is a guy not even in the AL anymore (Erick Fedde).
Emmanuel Clase should get a look for second place and I recently wondered if we’ve gone too far against upper-elite closers in Cy Young voting, but Skubal has a big lead here.
NL Cy Young
Chris Sale has this in the bag. He leads in wins, ERA, strikeouts, ERA+ and WAR. He’s second in WHIP. He’s sixth in innings but it isn’t a vast gap. Does this sound familiar to Skubal’s case? No closer is breathing down Sale’s neck, though Zack Wheeler is close enough to make a run.
This isn’t over, but Sale does have a pretty firm lead.
We’ll keep hearing about how many times Sale came close without winning a previous Cy Young and it’s possible that’ll sway some voters, even if subconsciously.
For now, that isn’t even necessary. He’s got the lead even without the narrative.
AL Rookie of the Year
Colton Cowser of the Orioles looks like the leader. In 484 plate appearances, he has 21 doubles, 20 homers, 62 RBI, 68 runs, a 120 OPS+ and 2.3 WAR. It isn’t quite the flashy field like over in the National League, but Cowser has certainly had a very good rookie season worth praise.
Austin Wells has taken over as the Yankees’ catcher and is hitting .251/.341/.433 (117 OPS+) with 2.5 WAR. He’s only played in 96 games (341 plate appearances), though. He could end up closing the gap with a hot finish, but I feel like Cowser is the man to beat right now.
Wilyer Abreu of the Red Sox actually has the WAR lead here at 3.0. I suspect he’d finish third right now, but it’s possible I’m wrong.
The door is open enough that someone like Colt Keith or Luis Gil could burst through it, but there’s an established top three right now, or so it appears.
NL Rookie of the Year
I did a bigger breakdown of this on Thursday, so take a look at that. If you only want the names, Paul Skenes and Jackson Merrill might be in a dead heat — though sportsbooks currently have Merrill as a rather heavy favorite — while Jackson Chourio, Shota Imanaga and Masyn Winn deserve a word.
AL Manager of the Year
This applies to both Manager of the Year races: Keep in mind the way these awards are decided is much different than the others. It’s not who has necessarily done the best job. It’s the manager of the team that has most exceeded expectations in the eyes of the general public.
Fortunately in the American League, there’s a decent chance the manager with the best record is also the one who exceeded expectations the most. Not only that, but he took over for a legend and his team stormed out of the blocks.
It’s hard to see anyone but Stephen Vogt of the Guardians winning this thing. If the Royals run down the Guardians, maybe Matt Quatraro wins it, but I don’t see that happening at this point and, really, Vogt would still have a great case.
NL Manager of the Year
A similar line of thinking applies to Pat Murphy of the Brewers. Not only do the Brewers have a chance at the NL’s best record, but they are certainly the team that has most defied expectations. Craig Counsell isn’t a legend like Terry Francona, but he had a very impressive run with the Brewers and left to take the Cubs job. Murphy was promoted from within and the Brewers are one of the best stories in baseball this season. Barring a massive collapse, this thing is over.
