Sunday gets us back into the normal rhythm of the AP Top 25 poll release after the extended Week 1 action over Labor Day. As we put a bow on Week 2 and begin to advance the conversation to Week 3, we are once again seeing how fluid things can be in the college football rankings early in the season.
Teams can look great one week and then fall well short of expectations the following week, but when we’ve only got a couple of games to use for a rankings profile, it can be difficult to identify a proper place in the top 25. For example: Is Notre Dame the team that won at Texas A&M on the road or the team that lost at home to Northern Illinois?
You don’t even need an outright upset to see changes in the rankings, because the same kind of confusion could be applied to Alabama or Penn State, who each received a stiff challenge from Group of Five opponents and will see an impact on their standing come Sunday.
But the most predictable moves in the rankings early in the season are reactions to wildly impressive wins, and few victories will resonate more than Texas‘ statement game against Michigan in the Big House. The Longhorns jumped all over Michigan early and controlled the game throughout, guided by Quinn Ewers‘ steady hand and a confidence that comes with the recent successes of this Texas program. They looked every bit the part of a national title contender, and that’s going to make AP voters reconsider their previous views on how the top teams in the country stack up against each other.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday:
1. Georgia (Previous ranking — 1): No change for the top dogs after getting the home schedule started with a 45-point win against FCS Tennessee Tech.
2. Texas (3): Only 60 voting points separated Texas from Ohio State last week (1,478-to-1,418), and that was with 12 voters putting Texas lower than No. 3 with one as low as No. 6. We’re projecting that the win at Michigan — more specifically, the dominant nature of the win — raises the floor for voters who were lower on the Longhorns and could even lead to a couple stray first-place votes. That’s the recipe for making up a voting gap of 60 points and jumping into the conversation for No. 1.
3. Ohio State (2): This would not be a case of the Buckeyes getting punished for anything — they were thorough in the dispatching of Western Michigan — but when comparing the teams at the very top of the sport, there is a deficit of that one big-time win. Georgia looked excellent against Clemson, and Texas announced its title worthiness on the road at Michigan. Until Ohio State has an opportunity to log a big win, it will be riding on preseason reputation and raw talent in the debate for No. 1.
4. Ole Miss (6): Jaxson Dart is quickly building his case as the top quarterback in the country by piling up more impressive statistics and accomplishments during third his senior season in Oxford. On Saturday, it was 24 straight completions to start the game in a 52-3 win against Middle Tennessee, marking the longest single-game streak in SEC history.
5. Oregon (7): The Ducks are currently in action against Boise State.
6. Alabama (4): Expect a drop of a few spots for Kalen DeBoer’s squad after looking shaky for most of a 42-16 win over South Florida. Alabama emerged unscathed and shouldn’t fall too far, but the Crimson Tide will likely fall out of the top five.
7. Penn State (8): The first edition in Week 2 of the MAC threatening to pull a top-10 upset ended with the favorites holding on — barely. Penn State’s defense allowed scoring drives on four of Bowling Green‘s first five possessions of the game before locking the Falcons down after halftime. Then, in the second half, dual 100-yard rushing efforts from Nicholas Singleton (13 carries, 119 yards) and Kaytron Allen (14 carries, 101 yards) helped Penn State survive the upset scare.
8. Missouri (9): The Tigers don’t have a big statement win like Georgia or Texas, but they have done exactly what’s been expected of a top-10 team through two weeks of the season. After another wire-to-wire win, this time against Buffalo, Missouri is outscoring its competition 89-0 on the year.
9. Utah (11): While the Utes were able to start Big 12 play with a 23-12 win against Baylor, all eyes will be on the status of Cam Rising after the Utes star quarterback left the game with a hand injury. Kyle Whittingham told the broadcast after the game he believes the injury is “not serious,” but Utah’s offense did not score once in the second half when Rising was on the sideline.
10. Miami (12): No major changes for the Hurricanes after a high-flying, 56-9 win against Florida A&M that was highlighted by a four-touchdown performance (three passing, one rushing) for Cam Ward.
11. USC (13): The Trojans are currently in action against Utah State.
12. Tennessee (14): A show-stopping performance from Tennessee’s offense will certainly get the attention of voters who were eyeing one of the few ranked-on-ranked games of Week 2 as a chance to judge the Volunteers’ position as a top-15 team. Needless to say, after the 51-10 victory there is no doubt, and the goal posts are being moved to judging Tennessee against the best teams in the SEC.
13. Oklahoma State (16): Some key turnovers and a pick-six allowed the Cowboys to hang around and eventually survive a double-overtime thriller against Arkansas. In a way, Oklahoma State should be encouraged by how its veteran group found a way to win on a day when things weren’t clicking consistently, but there’s also a lot to work on with big games coming up soon on the schedule.
14. Kansas State (17): A troublesome first half made it look like Kansas State was on the verge of dropping an early nonconference game for a third straight season, but the Wildcats defense stepped up late with stops and even a scoop-and-score in a 34-27 road win against Tulane.
15. Notre Dame (5): A big mover after beating Texas A&M in the season opener, Notre Dame will certainly take a tumble after the home loss to Northern Illinois. The Fighting Irish might have been at No. 5 but were still getting placed as low as the Nos. 8-10 range by a dozen of voters last week. There might not be a high floor for their fall.
16. Michigan (10): The inability for Michigan to move the football and finish drives consistently is an alarming detail that stands out to any college football fan and certainly the AP voters. The Wolverines still have one of the most talented defenses in the country, but without an offense that contribute to complimentary football, it’s going to be hard to place Michigan inside the top 10.
17. LSU (18): A short turnaround from Sunday’s loss to USC in Las Vegas set up a precarious circumstance with LSU only leading Nicholls 23-21 early in the third quarter. But the Tigers took control throughout the second half and scored 21 unanswered points to win by a comfortable 44-21 final margin.
18. Oklahoma (15): We’re looking for the Sooners to give up a couple spots after the offense struggled in a 16-12 win against Houston. Oklahoma was a four-touchdown favorite in the game and had to sweat the result all the way until the final minutes when a game-sealing safety from the defense saved the day.
19. Arizona (20): The Wildcats are currently in action against Northern Arizona.
20. Louisville (22): Quarterback Tyler Shough was still playing into the fourth quarter as Jeff Brohm wanted to leave no doubt in a 49-14 win against Jacksonville State. Shough led an offensive attack that piled up 610 yards of offense in the win, moving the Cardinals to 2-0 as they head into an early season off week.
21. Clemson (25): No team that lost in Week 1 had a bigger bounce-back statement in Week 2 than Clemson. The Tigers jumped out to a 35-0 lead on Appalachian State in the first quarter and defended that advantage all the way to a 66-20 win.
22. Iowa State (NR): Trailing 13-0 at halftime, an injury-riddled Iowa State defense was able to lock in and step up its performance in the second half while Rocco Becht showed his resilience guiding the Cyclones to an epic comeback win. With a go-ahead field goal in the game’s final minute, Iowa State gets to carry the confidence from this rivalry into Big 12 play where many games will come down to late-game execution.
23. Nebraska (NR): Early in the season, it can be hard to separate assigning credit for a win from blame for a loss, but the eye-popping score on a big stage is going to have AP voters far more likely to boost their opinion of the Cornhuskers. Nebraska not only avenged last season’s loss to Colorado but showed its full range of tools to be great in 2024 with Dylan Raiola and a defense that can punish opponents for mistakes.
24. Illinois (NR): In 2022, Bret Bielema got Illinois back into the AP Top 25 poll for the first time in 11 years. We’re projecting that Saturday’s win against Kansas will add another ranking to his tenure as the Illini found a way to win a tough nonconference battle after a sluggish and sloppy start.
25. Syracuse (NR): Quarterback Kyle McCord has totaled 735 passing yards and eight touchdowns in two wins for Syracuse, following one of his best-ever performances in the opener with an even better one against a ranked opponent in Georgia Tech. Like Illinois, we’re projecting the 2-0 Orange get a bump into the rankings thanks to Saturday’s ranked win.
Projected to drop out: No. 19 Kansas, No. 21 Iowa, No. 23 Georgia Tech, No. 24 NC State
