A new team has entered the College Football Playoff projection as Memphis is now the Group of Five representative after a 20-12 win at Florida State. Boise State previously occupied that Group of Five spot, but with the Broncos idle in Week 3, the win over the Seminoles on the road helped push the Tigers into the field.
Florida State, meanwhile, dropped out of the bowl projections entirely. The ‘Noles may eventually find their footing, but I’m not counting on it. With Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame still on the schedule, the margin for error is gone in terms of getting to six wins.
The only other change in the CFP projection is Oregon and Penn State swapping places. The Ducks finally looked like the team we expected coming into the season in a 49-14 win at Oregon State. Oregon is now the projected 7-seed and Penn State is 9th.
Notre Dame took out some frustrations on Purdue and then some. The Fighting Irish administered a 66-7 beatdown of the Boilermakers, which is Purdue’s worst loss in its 137-year history. Inexplicably, Purdue’s starters played deep into the fourth quarter, which means that the Boilermakers’ starters were outscored by each of Notre Dame’s first, second and third units.
That’s not enough to put the Irish back into the CFP projection, however. Notre Dame’s problem may end up being strength of schedule along with the loss to Northern Illinois. The only teams in this week’s rankings that are left of Notre Dame’s schedule are No. 21 Louisville at home and the season finale at No. 11 USC.
College Football Playoff
Quarterfinals
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
|
Jan. 1 |
Sugar Bowl |
(1) Georgia vs. (8/9) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Rose Bowl |
(2) Ohio State vs. (7/10) Winner |
|
Jan. 1 |
Peach Bowl |
(4) Miami vs. (5/12) Winner |
|
Dec. 31 |
Fiesta Bowl |
(3) Utah vs. (6/11) Winner |
First round
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Dec. 20 or 21 |
Texas Memorial Stadium |
(5) Texas vs. (12) Memphis | (4) Miami |
|
Dec. 20 or 21 |
Beaver Stadium |
(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Penn State | (1) Georgia |
|
Dec. 20 or 21 |
Autzen Stadium |
(6) Alabama vs. (11) Oklahoma State | (3) Utah |
|
Dec. 20 or 21 |
Bryant-Denny Stadium |
(7) Oregon vs. (10) Kansas State | (2) Ohio State |
No. 1 Georgia got quite a scare at Kentucky but survived for a 13-12 win. A loss by the Bulldogs would have put a lot of pressure on the regular-season game at Texas on Oct. 19 if they had aspirations of winning the SEC. It’s unlikely that a two-loss team will play for the SEC title.
The other top contender in the SEC, Texas, lost starting QB Quinn Ewers to a strained abdomen in the second quarter of its game with UTSA, but star backup Arch Manning came in and didn’t miss a beat. Manning threw for four touchdowns and ran for another in a 56-7 win over the Roadrunners. Ewers’ prognosis is unknown, but it looks like the Longhorns are in good hands if he is unavailable.
The only other top-10 team to have to work hard for the win this week was No. 6 Missouri. The Tigers trailed No. 24 Boston College by 11 midway through the second quarter before running off 24 straight points and eventually winning 27-21. Mizzou is projected to the Gator Bowl against NC State.
This week’s bowl projections only feature four 5-7 teams — down from six last week. Wisconsin, Auburn, South Carolina and South Alabama are this week’s APR leaders among the projected 5-7 teams.
Don’t see your team? Check out Jerry Palm’s complete bowl projections.
