Week 4 in college football featured one of the first slates with conference play scattered across the landscape, and the arrival of that portion of the season brings the first real challenges for voters in the AP Top 25 poll. For the early weeks of the season there are but a few true ranked-on-ranked matchups that can lead to difficult decisions up and down a ballot. But now that we’re in conference play, voters will be challenged to consider the strength of teams beyond their loss count.
Michigan was docked significantly for its loss to Texas in Week 2, falling all the way outside the top 15 after failing to be competitive in what was widely viewed as a matchup of two College Football Playoff contenders. But after a quarterback change and a statement win against USC in Week 4, the Wolverines have shown that maybe it was too early to sell their stock because their smash-mouth brand of football is still good enough to compete with some of the top teams in the Big Ten.
Voters will also start to consider how long preseason biases can hold up the ranking of teams that have yet to face tougher tests and log ranked wins. Tennessee toppled NC State when the Wolfpack were ranked, but it will be Saturday’s road win against Oklahoma that carries a slightly more significant impact as the Vols will see their season-long climb up the rankings continue with momentum that could push them into the top five.
It will also be difficult to decide where USC and Oklahoma fit into the top 25 picture after losses; each clearly showed a form in defeat that is worthy of remaining in the rankings but now will be compared with teams that have yet to take a loss. Every voter has a different method when it comes to splitting hairs and breaking down a team’s performance, potential and resume. And with every week of conference play that gets added to the profile, we get a little bit of a clearer view of how these teams compare to each other.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll will look after Week 4.
1. Texas (Last week — 1): No change at the top as Texas put together a dominant performance without its starting quarterback. Unlike other teams that also turned to their backup quarterback in Week 4, however, the Longhorns’ QB2 happens to be Arch Manning.
2. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week at Alabama.
3. Ohio State (3): It was a little bit of a slow start and a stunning early deficit, but Ohio State quickly righted the ship and pulled away for a dominant 49-14 home win against Marshall.
4. Alabama (4): The Crimson Tide were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week against Georgia.
5. Tennessee (6): The Volunteers join the top five after going on the road and giving Oklahoma a stiff welcome to the SEC in primetime. Once again, the Tennessee defense showed out as this squad proves to be a more complete team week in and week out.
6. Ole Miss (5): The Rebels had a significant edge on Tennessee in voting points last week, but the Rebels’ best win remains a road victory at Wake Forest. The blowout wins are impressive and Ole Miss looks good, but AP voters will become more resume and profile focused as we get deeper into the season.
7. Miami (8): One thing we have not yet seen from Miami in recent years — at least not consistently — is the ability to hit the gas and really put teams away. USF did its best to make things competitive early, but unlike some other top-10 teams, the Hurricanes were able to eliminate any upset belief with a dominant second half.
8. Missouri (7): There could be some shuffling for Missouri after getting taken to overtime by Vanderbilt. The gap between No. 6 and No. 9 was tight enough in last week’s voting that a closer-than-expected result could be enough to see the Tigers get jumped.
9. Oregon (9): The Ducks were off in Week 4 and will be back in action next week at UCLA.
10. Penn State (10): No major changes for the Nittany Lions after an as-expected throttling of Kent State.
11. Michigan (18): The expectation is that votes for Michigan will be all over the place after Saturday’s statement win against USC. The Wolverines were as high as No. 13 last week as a 2-1 team with the best win being Fresno State, but they were also left off the ballot entirely for five voters and No. 20 or lower for 19 voters. Those lower opinions are going to flip after handing the Trojans their first loss of the season, and the voters who were higher on Michigan going into the game will likely move the Wolverines into the top 10.
12. Utah (12): No Cam Rising? No problem for Utah, who has now improved to 4-0 on the season and 2-0 in Big 12 play with a hard-fought road win at Oklahoma State. The Utes defense had a vintage performance, bottling up Ollie Gordon II and keeping the Cowboys’ offense in check before a late charge made the 22-19 result look closer than the game was for most of the afternoon.
13. USC (11): The head-to-head win against LSU sets a comfortable and predictable landing spot for USC as the Trojans now get compared to the other one-loss teams in the rankings. There’s no shame in falling to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but there is certainly disappointment considering how close USC was to pulling off a thrilling, second-half comeback win against the reigning national champs.
14. LSU (16): Things looked dicey for a while, but LSU was able to take control late and shouldn’t see too much punishment from the voters for a 34-17 win against UCLA.
15. Notre Dame (17): The strength of this Notre Dame team remains its defense, and that’s exactly the group that helped keep things stable during a 28-3 win against Miami (OH).
16. Louisville (19): The Cardinals have had solid voter support despite not having much on the rankings profile, so we’re projecting that Saturday’s 31-19 home win against Georgia Tech is more affirmation than reasons for a big move up.
17. Iowa State (20): Back in action for the first time since their emotional comeback win at Iowa, the Cyclones handled business with a 52-7 win against Arkansas State.
18. Clemson (21): The Tigers were up 59-14 heading to the fourth quarter against NC State following a fast start that included touchdowns on six of their first seven possessions. It was a thunderous result for a Clemson team that appears ready to make a run at returning to the top of the ACC but not one that will lead to big change in the AP poll rankings.
19. Illinois (24): There were 28 voters that didn’t even have Illinois on the ballot last week. We’re projecting that’s not the case anymore after a 31-24 overtime win at Nebraska that improved the Fighting Illini to 4-0 for the first time since 2011.
20. Oklahoma (15): While voters are going to be more enthusiastic about Tennessee’s position, there is also a takeaway from Saturday night’s game that suggests the Sooners are not quite ready for top-15 consideration.
21. Indiana (NR): History will point to the fact that Indiana is 4-0 for the first time since 2020, but this feels much different. Maybe it’s because that was a late-starting COVID-shortened season or maybe it’s because the Hoosiers have outscored their competition by a combined score of 202-37. Saturday’s 52-14 win against Charlotte was just more of the same relentlessness we’ve seen from Indiana all season, and these eye-popping scores have been getting more and more voter attention each week.
22. BYU (NR): The Cougars are 4-0 for the first time since 2012 after dominating Kansas State, adding the victory against the Wildcats to a profile that already included a road win at SMU.
23. Oklahoma State (14): If we’re basing the ranking only on resume, there’s not a great argument for ranking Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ best win was against Arkansas, and the team looked sufficiently outclassed against an Utah team that was on its second quarterback. But with a lot of preseason bias from the voters still lingering, no bad losses and not a lot of obvious replacement team options, I think the Pokes will still be ranked heading into next week’s game at Kansas State — which is now looking like a make-or-break game for remaining in the Big 12 title hunt.
24. Kansas State (13): The Wildcats got caught in a letdown spot on the road after a big win, and now have to pick up the pieces to remain at the top of the standings in the Big 12 title race. It was a sloppy performance with enough mental mistakes to think the issues are correctable, but still a performance that’s going to lead to a notable drop in the rankings.
25. Texas A&M (25): It is very possible that Texas A&M falls out of the top 25 because of how close things got late in the game against Bowling Green. The margins between the Aggies at No. 25 and teams outside the rankings were small last week, but a good number of those teams also lost, so poll inertia could leave Texas A&M above the cut line.
Projected to drop out: No. 22 Nebraska, No. 23 Northern Illinois
