The only matchup between nationally-ranked teams in Week 6 is in the SEC. The last time we had so few massive matchups, we were led to believe upsets would pepper the schedule, but that didn’t quite happen in Week 3.
Might that change as bruised bodies wear down and the underdogs bite down midway through the season? We may find out in the SEC this week with four top 25 teams hitting the road, including No. 9 Missouri traveling to No. 25 Texas A&M for the game of the week on the national stage.
Interestingly, two of those teams on upset watch are relatively healthy as they exit well-timed bye weeks: No. 4 Tennessee and the Tigers. The Vols travel to Arkansas after bludgeoning Oklahoma on the road two weeks ago. Mizzou hopes a week of rest and preparation are enough to shake the rust from the double-overtime win against Vanderbilt two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, No. 12 Ole Miss heads to South Carolina after the second-biggest upset of the season: Kentucky’s win in Oxford last week.
“I’m not going to overreact in a loss like I don’t overreact in a tight win,” Rebels coach Lane Kiffin said after the 20-17 setback.
Maybe Kiffin should be concerned. Their otherworldly offense was held in check and the defense struggled to get one of the worst offenses in the country off the field, particularly in the fourth quarter. There’s also the matter that the Gamecocks have already faced a similar team in a similar predicament. Remember when the Gamecocks pinned top-15 LSU on the ropes earlier this season? LSU’s explosive offense was coming off a loss to the USC Trojans in the season opener and South Carolina frustrated quarterback Garrett Nussmeier in the first half. Like Kentucky did against the Rebels (four sacks), South Carolina’s defensive line can certainly get pressure on Jaxson Dart.
Many critics questioned whether Ole Miss and Missouri could stick around in the top 10, and they’ve only grown louder. Mizzou’s close call against Vanderbilt, an uneven performance against Boston College and an undefeated record against a weak schedule have raised eyebrows. The Aggies are favored at home, which isn’t a surprise. Mike Elko has won four straight after a season-opening loss to Notre Dame and the program is building confidence each week.
What’s the difference? Coaching. The Aggies are much better in the fourth quarter, going 2-0 in one-possession games this fall after losing eight straight under coach Jimbo Fisher, who was fired late in 2023.
Just a SECond
A few notes from the CBS Sports Research team to whet your appetite and get you thinking before Week 6’s picks:
- Missouri and Army own the nation’s longest winning streaks (eight) entering Week 6.
- Georgia is the first team since Michigan in 1989 to lose in the first month of the season and remain in the AP poll’s top five.
- Auburn hasn’t defeated an AP top-five team on the road since 2007. The Tigers travel to Georgia this week.
- Alabama’s Ryan Williams has the most receiving yards by a freshman through four games since 2014 (Baylor’s K.D. Cannon, 2014).
- Billy Napier’s career winning percentage (44.8%) is the fourth-worst in Florida history and the worst mark by a Gators head coach since 1949 (Raymond Wolf).
- Tennessee leads the nation in points per game (54) and point differential (47 points per game).
- The Vols’ defense has allowed only 176.9 yards per game, the best average by an SEC team through four games since 2007 LSU, which won the national title that season..
- Alabama’s 41 points last week in the win against Georgia was a season low.
Picks
Straight up: 46-8 | Against the spread: 25-22-2
Picks use opening SportsLine consensus odds
No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M
It’s easy to side with the Aggies this week after how Mizzou nearly lost to Vanderbilt two weeks ago at home. Still, considering that Mizzou is on quite the winning streak, and with much of the same pieces from last year back on the field, receiver Luther Burden has bailed the Tigers out again and again (76 yards and two scores against Vandy) as Nate Noel (199 yards vs. Vanderbilt) continues to balance the scales. Texas A&M has lost six straight to ranked teams since 2023, and Mizzou has won three straight against ranked teams, the school’s best streak since 1976.
Texas A&M has won with a disciplined offense, which hasn’t turned the ball over in three games, and an opportunistic defense that has forced multiple turnovers in those same games, including last week’s 21-17 win against Arkansas, which committed three turnovers while the Aggies were outgained by 82 yards. If Missouri protects the ball and doesn’t lose the turnover battle by more than one, the Tigers win. Food for thought: Mizzou covered the spread in all four road games last season. Pick: Missouri +2
Auburn at No. 5 Georgia
Georgia was in football hell during the first half last week at Alabama. Trailing 28-0, the Bulldogs could have easily pushed through the motions as humans usually do, but Kirby Smart and Co. made adjustments and stormed back in the second half to take the lead before ultimately falling in the final minutes. It was a classic game, sure, but it also showed the resolve of the Bulldogs, who are still an SEC and national threat after ending a historic 42-game winning streak in the regular season. You can bet Carson Beck, who threw for a career-high 439 yards, and crew are quite motivated after the performance, which included four turnovers after not committing a single fumble/interception heading into the game.
Meanwhile, Auburn is in a hell of its own making. The offensive line continues to struggle, quarterback Payton Thorne is unreliable and Hugh Freeze seems reluctant to lean on the ground game in critical situations. The Tigers had a better performance against Oklahoma but blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter with the help of a pick six by Thorne. The Tigers need to protect the ball and rush for 200 yards to have a shot Saturday. That doesn’t happen and Georgia pushes its winning streak in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry to eight – but Auburn covers the spread on the road. Pick: Auburn +27
No. 12 Ole Miss at South Carolina
Ole Miss had plenty of opportunities last week to beat Kentucky. The Rebels were ahead late, but gave up a 63-yard pass on fourth-and-7. Their kicker missed a game-tying field goal. Jaxson Dart was sacked four times by a defense that shut down Georgia earlier this season. Ole Miss isn’t suddenly terrible, as coach Lane Kiffin said this week, but there are issues, particularly along the offensive line after smothering FCS opponents and Wake Forest on the road. The Rebels still have one of the nation’s best offenses, with receiver Tre Harris leading the FBS with 160.8 receiving yards per game. Ole Miss just needs to protect Dart and give him more time against a solid South Carolina defensive front, which frustrated LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier two weeks ago.
There’s a lot on the line in Columbia. South Carolina hasn’t started 2-1 or better in the SEC in a decade and, remember, Shane Beamer is a giant killer with wins against Tennessee and Clemson in recent history. Can he do it again? Nah. Ole Miss bounces back, scoring more than 30 points as usual and the defensive line terrorizes quarterback LaNorris Sellers, whose offensive line allows four sacks per game, the worst average in the Power Four. Pick: Ole Miss -11.5
No. 1 Alabama at Vanderbilt
Alabama isn’t trying to avoid the media’s rat poison after upsetting Georgia. No, the Tide are high-stepping their way around mouse traps inside the Mal Moore Athletics Facility this week ahead of a trip to Vanderbilt. A trap game? Maybe so. Quarterback Diego Pavia has shown the ability to lead Vandy to big wins, whether it was the season opener against Virginia Tech or the near upset on the road two weeks ago at top-10 Mizzou.
Alabama might be the best team in the country, but the Tide still hit lulls, both against the likes of USF and top-tier Georgia. In a battle of superstar quarterbacks, Jalen Milroe continues his push for the Heisman Trophy, but Pavia will fight to keep it closer than the spread suggests (Every FBS opponent has been a one-possession game for the Commodores). Pick: Vanderbilt +26.5
No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas
Tennessee held back against Oklahoma, opting to lean on the running attack instead of pouring it on after building a 22-3 lead two weeks ago. Arkansas presents a different challenge, however, particularly with a mobile quarterback. This should be a solid test for Tennessee’s elite and deep defensive line, particularly against the run. The Hogs struggle in pass pro but they’re solid with the run, ranking 21st nationally with 212 yards per game. Ja’Quinden Jackson averages 6.4 yards per carry and quarterback Taylen Green is the second-leading rusher at 66.2 yards per game.
The Hogs, however, try too hard to make plays when things break down and it leads to costly turnovers, which led to losses to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M in one-possession games. They also struggled in the first half against UAB because of turnovers. The Hogs are among the worst in the SEC in turnover margin (14th), and Tennessee’s defense is among the nation’s best in every category, ranking No. 1 in total defense (176 yards per game) and No. 2 in scoring defense (7 points per game). Pick: Tennessee -10.5
UCF at Florida
The loser of this game between the Knights and the Gators will leave Gainesville on Saturday night searching for answers. A Florida loss likely seals Billy Napier’s fate. If UCF loses, well, the Knights will head back home to Orlando on a two-game losing streak after they were shocked last week in a 27-point loss to Colorado in a game the Knights were favored by two touchdowns. How do they respond?
UCF owns the nation’s second-best rushing attack (326 yards per game) but RJ Harvey was limited to 77 yards and didn’t score last week. The Gators, particularly the quarterbacks, responded well in a 45-28 win two weeks ago at Mississippi State. Back in The Swamp, Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway will do enough to win a high-scoring game. Pick: Florida +3
