Did anyone expect Florida to be riding a wave of momentum and Tennessee be reeling heading into Saturday’s annual rivalry game in the SEC? The Gators have bounced back nicely with Billy Napier on the hot seat, winning two straight — both by double digits — in must-have games against Mississippi State and UCF. A loss to the Knights last week would have most certainly sealed Napier’s fate, but the Gators won 24-13 and have some sense of hope heading into Knoxville this week.
Meanwhile, Tennessee seems to have hit the floor with a thud on offense. The Volunteers haven’t looked the part of the nation’s most explosive offense in its first two SEC games – both on the road – averaging just over 19 points. The 19-14 loss at unranked Arkansas was not just disappointing but it also exposed the Vols’ weaknesses, particularly after the Razorbacks installed a 3-2-6 defensive alignment package (only four plays) to slow the Vols, just as Oklahoma did a few weeks ago in the Sooners’ 25-15 loss to the Vols.
The oddsmakers still favor Tennessee by two touchdowns against the Gators, but history hasn’t been kind to the Vols in this spot. Florida is 17-2 in the last 19 matchups but has lost 10 of its last 11 games against top 25 teams.
Florida vs. Tennessee: Need to know
Tennessee needs the offense to wake up: Two great defensive coordinators have out-coached Josh Heupel in the Vols’ last two games. Arkansas’ Travis Williams needed only four new plays in a 3-2-6 to slow the Vols, who were shut out in the first half last week. Tennessee managed only 76 yards in the first 30 minutes, the lowest total of the Heupel era. Now imagine what would have happened if the Vols didn’t protect the football as well as they did last week (zero turnovers). Florida’s defense is capable of keeping this game in the 20-point range, but the key here is Tennessee is back home for the first time in three weeks. It’s obvious Heupel has more confidence as a play caller when redshirt freshman Nico Iamaleava is inside Neyland Stadium. The Vols averaged 63.7 points before the two-game road trip. They averaged 19.5 points in the 1-1 start in the SEC.
Graham Mertz has been solid: If you haven’t been paying attention to Florida since its blowout losses to Miami and Texas A&M at home, the quarterback situation has settled down between Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway, and the Gators look much more competent on offense. Mertz, whose up-and-down performances had soured many, actually leads the FBS in hitting 80% or more of his passes in the last three games. Two of those performances were against subpar defenses (Mississippi State and UCF), but the Gators’ offense has regained some confidence.
Tennessee’s defense is still elite: Don’t let the loss at Arkansas fool you. The Volunteers still have one of the best defenses in the country. They gave up 430-plus yards against the Hogs, but only allowed 19 points and were mostly stout in the red zone (they also allowed a touchdown in the final 77 seconds to give the offense an opportunity to win the game). They have the nation’s best defense on third downs (22.1% conversion rate), and they rank second in total defense (227.6 yards) and fourth in scoring (9.4). The Vols’ defensive line is fantastic and should give the Florida offensive line fits.
How to watch Florida vs. Tennessee live
Date: Saturday, Oct. 12 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, Tennessee
TV: ESPN | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)
Florida vs. Tennessee prediction, picks
Will the real Tennessee offense please stand up? The Vols have struggled on the road offensively, scoring just 19.5 points in back-to-back road games in the SEC after opening the season at a blistering pace (63.7 ppg). The 19-14 loss at Arkansas was an eye opener for the Vols, who have struggled against 3-2-6 defenses of late. The good news for the Vols: Nico Iamaleava returns home to the safe confines of Neyland Stadium, where he is electric (and coach Josh Heupel has more confidence as a play-caller). Florida has some momentum with back-to-back wins against Mississippi State and UCF, but this is a sizable bump in competition. Graham Mertz has to play without throwing picks, which he has done well of late. The Vols are 13-4 against the spread in their last 17 home games as a double-digit favorite, but this is the largest spread as a favorite against the Gators in 30 years. The Vols bounce back with a vengeance on offense and cover. Pick: Tennessee -15.5
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