Prior to the season, Saturday, Oct. 12 was pinpointed as one of the biggest turning points in the 2024 college football season. Sure enough, the sport delivered with an absolutely electric day from the early slate all the way through the night action. Oregon won its first-ever game against a top-two opponent by defeating Ohio State in the final minutes, while multiple ranked favorites escaped with overtime wins. Now, AP Top 25 voters have to sort through the wreckage to assemble a new set of college football rankings.
And while Oregon has built an extremely strong case to be the No. 1 team in the country, we’re projecting that Texas will hold onto that spot in the wake of a dominant win against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns had 52 of 61 first-place votes in last week’s poll, so while the Ducks are likely to pick up a good portion of the nine votes Ohio State received (and maybe a few others), it’s unlikely enough voters will change their minds on Texas to see a change at the top.
Of course, voters will have to figure out what to do with Ohio State now that the Buckeyes have taken their first loss of the season. How do they fit alongside Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee after all three teams ended up with wins by much closer margins than anyone expected?
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 poll will look after Week 7:
1. Texas (Last week — 1): The Longhorns have been marvelous throughout their 6-0 start, and while action elsewhere will open the debate for No. 1, there will be no displacing the top team after totally controlling Oklahoma in a 34-3 Red River Rivalry revenge win.
2. Oregon (3): The stage was set for a breakthrough moment for Oregon in its Big Ten era, and the Ducks delivered behind the gutsy play of Dillon Gabriel and just enough defensive stops even without a star pass rusher in the lineup. Oregon will get first-place votes after the win and spark a healthy debate for the top spot, but ultimately, there’s just too much pre-existing Texas support to jump all the way to No. 1.
3. Penn State (4): Shaking off a slow start, Drew Allar and Penn State roared back in the second half at USC and eventually escaped with a 33-30 overtime win. It was not a perfect performance, but the resilience was impressive, so we don’t expect the result to change the rankings much beyond a bump up in the top-five shake up.
4. Ohio State (2): The Buckeyes will be the top one-loss team in the country when the AP Top 25 poll resets after Week 7. There’s no reason to think Ohio State still doesn’t have one of the best teams in the country, but there will be a drop in the rankings after failing to convert on opportunities late in the one-point loss in Eugene.
5. Georgia (5): The fans in Athens got a bit more of a competitive game than most expected, but quarterback Carson Beck answered the call with 459 yards passing and three touchdowns in a 41-31 win against Mississippi State. It was the second time in the last three weeks the Bulldogs have given up more than 30 points after not even allowing a touchdown in the first three games of the season.
6. Miami (6): The Hurricanes were off in Week 7 and will be back in action next Saturday at Louisville.
7. Iowa State (11): This was a really strong win for Iowa State, going into Morgantown and coming out with a double-digit win over West Virginia to improve to 6-0 on the year. Given the way some of the one-loss teams struggled, the Cyclones could be due for a jump into the top 10.
8. Clemson (10): Five straight wins for the Tigers have set the stage for a slow climb up into the top 10 of the rankings, and there could be room for even another move up in the wake of Saturday’s 49-14 win at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons struck first, but any notion of an upset was quickly squashed with a 28-point offensive onslaught in the second quarter complete with multiple interceptions by Clemson’s defense.
9. LSU (13): The Tigers clawed back at home in Death Valley for a thrilling 29-26 overtime win over Ole Miss. Brian Kelly’s squad stayed alive in the College Football Playoff race by avoiding a second loss, and the win will be enough to see LSU return to the top 10.
10. Notre Dame (11): The Fighting Irish defense was absolutely stifling, holding Stanford to just 137 yards of offense in a 49-7 win that also featured four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) from Riley Leonard.
11. Alabama (7): There’s a lot that’s not going right for Alabama right now, but the Crimson Tide were able to avoid a potentially devastating second straight loss in a 27-25 victory against South Carolina. As the top 10 gets shuffled on ballots across the country, there will be many voters who slide Alabama down for a second straight week even though the Tide held on for a win.
12. Tennessee (8): It’s hard to be overly encouraged by beating Florida in overtime at home, but least the Vols had answers after going down 10-0 early in the game. Tennessee has a chance to reverse this recent slide in stock next week, welcoming Alabama to Knoxville.
13. BYU (14): The Cougars are 6-0 now after crushing Arizona 41-19 behind a defensive effort that included forcing four turnovers and even scoring a touchdown on a pick six.
14. Texas A&M (15): The Aggies were off in Week 7 and will be back in action next Saturday at Mississippi State.
15. Boise State (17): Things got a little too close for comfort on the road against Hawaii but the Broncos did a good job to put the Warriors away in the fourth quarter and leave the island with its unbeaten conference record intact.
16. Indiana (18): The Hoosiers were off in Week 7 and will be back in action next Saturday against Nebraska.
17. Kansas State (18): It did not come without adversity or challenge but the Wildcats pulled out a 31-28 win against Colorado that keeps this group on pace to compete for a Big 12 title and a College Football Playoff spot.
18. Missouri (21): The Tigers responded to last week’s disappointing road loss at Texas A&M with a 45-3 runaway win at UMass.
19. Pitt (22): Now 6-0 for the first time since Dan Marino was under center, Pitt has positioned itself as a dark horse in the ACC title picture. And while much of the Panthers’ success this season has been thanks to a revamped offense, it was Pat Narduzzi’s defense that delivered the winning plays in a 17-15 win against Cal.
20. Illinois (23): Nearly blowing a 24-point third quarter lead put Illinois’ ranked status in jeopardy, but Luke Altmyer‘s clutch play and a final stand by the Illini defense came through in the 50-49 overtime win against Purdue.
21. Ole Miss (9): We are setting two-loss Michigan as Ole Miss’ rankings floor for the expected drop following Saturday night’s overtime loss at LSU. Losing close on the road in Baton Rouge to a top-15 team is going to get some forgiveness from the voters, but as a two-loss team team Ole Miss gets slotted down for most voters when trying to sort out the back half of the ballot.
22. Michigan (24): The Wolverines were off in Week 7 and will be back in action next Saturday at Illinois.
23. SMU (25): The Mustangs were off in Week 7 and will be back in action next Saturday
24. Army (NR): The Black Knights are poised to be ranked for the first time since 2020 after improving to 6-0 with a 44-10 win against UAB. Army holds the nation’s longest active winning streak (10 games) and has not trailed once in a game all season, which should be enough for voters looking to fill out those final spots on their ballots.
25. Vanderbilt (NR): Last week’s win against Alabama had the Commodores soaring to 30th in voting points and after taking down Kentucky in Lexington we’re projecting another bump up into the top 25.
Projected to drop out: No. 16 Utah, No. 18 Oklahoma
