Fantasy Basketball Rankings 2024-25: Sleepers, breakouts and busts by advanced NBA computer model

By CBS Sports Staff

Oct 13, 2024 at 11:39 am ET • 7 min read

DeMar DeRozan is a six-time NBA All-Star and was one of the most clutch players in the league during his three seasons with the Bulls. Now the mid-range juggernaut will join forces with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox in Sacramento as the Kings look to improve on a 46-win season in 2023-24. How will DeRozan fit on a talented young roster and where exactly should you be targeting each of those three players in your upcoming 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts?

With a reliable set of live-updated 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings, you can ensure you’re getting maximum value out of every pick. You can also identify potential 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts that may define the upcoming season. Before making any 2024-25 Fantasy basketball picks, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proven model simulates each season 10,0000 times. This model is powered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. These cheat sheets and rankings, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day. Any time an injury occurs or there’s a change on a roster, the team at SportsLine updates its cheat sheets.

Last year the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust, predicting that he would never live up to his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey had his minutes reduced significantly with Oklahoma City’s roster improving and saw corresponding drops in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4) assists (6.2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason and Fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headache last season were better off for it.

The model also nailed DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in 2021-22 before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game and called Paolo Banchero’s and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before they went on to win NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model’s Fantasy basketball advice on them was well on their way to making a deep postseason run.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy basketball rankings 2024-25, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings. 

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers 

One of the top 2024 Fantasy basketball sleepers the model is predicting: Suns center Jusuf Nurkic. In his 10th NBA season last year, and first in Phoenix, Nurkic averaged a double-double with 10.9 points and 11 rebounds per game. He also filled up the box score, averaging 4 assists, which ranked fifth amongst centers, to go along with 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per night. Add in that he shot over 50% from the field, and Nurkic provided both the Suns and Fantasy managers everything you’d want out of a big man.

He gets overlooked playing alongside Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, and he isn’t a go-to option on offense, but Nurkic provides stability, with no glaring holes to Fantasy basketball lineups. He also showed durability last season in playing 76 games after averaging just 38.3 games over his previous four seasons. The SportsLine model has Nurkic amongst the top 10 centers in the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings, and even has him on par with the man he replaced in Phoenix, Deandre Ayton, despite Ayton being drafted multiple rounds earlier on average. See more Fantasy basketball sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts 

One of the 2024 Fantasy basketball breakouts the model has identified: Wizards PF/C Alex Sarr. The 19-year-old Frenchman is 7-feet tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and he was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Sarr moved to the United States in 2021 to play for Overtime Elite and then got significant professional experience playing for Perth in Australia last season.

Sarr averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in around 17 minutes per game for Perth and he’s an extremely high-upside prospect for the Wizards. Initially, expect Sarr to use his length and athleticism to affect the game as a stretch big and a rim protector. The model projects Sarr as a top-45 forward in his rookie season despite the fact that he’s been the 64th forward off the board on average. Identify other Fantasy basketball breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Thunder forward Jalen Williams as one of its top 2024 Fantasy basketball busts. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft was the runner-up for NBA Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and then finished fourth in most improved player voting last season after averaging 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds in 2023-24.

However, Williams saw his usage rates wane late in the regular season and only averaged 11.8 points per game in April. With the addition of Alex Caruso this offseason, Williams could see his role reduced slightly in favor of Caruso and Luguentz Dort on the wing for defensive purposes. That’s a big reason why the model ranks Williams outside the top 25 Fantasy basketball forwards for 2024-25. Avoid these 2024 Fantasy basketball busts as well.

How to find proven 2024-25 Fantasy basketball rankings

SportsLine is also has a shocking prediction for one of the league’s biggest names and advises avoiding him in 2024 Fantasy basketball drafts at his current ADP. This bust fails to live up to his first-round ADP, ranking behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can only see who it is, and the 2024 Fantasy basketball rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024-25 Fantasy basketball sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which huge name should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024-25 Fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that’s nailed its Fantasy basketball picks, and find out.

Consensus Top 100 Fantasy Basketball ADP 2024-25

1. Nikola Jokic (DEN – C)
2. Victor Wembanyama (SAS – C,PF)
3. Luka Doncic (DAL – PG,SG)
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL – PF,C)
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC – PG,SG)
6. Jayson Tatum (BOS – SF,PF)
7. Tyrese Haliburton (IND – PG,SG)
8. Joel Embiid (PHI – C)
9. Anthony Edwards (MIN – SG,SF)
10. Anthony Davis (LAL – PF,C)
11. Stephen Curry (GSW – PG,SG)
12. Domantas Sabonis (SAC – PF,C)
13. Trae Young (ATL – PG)
14. Devin Booker (PHO – PG,SF,SG)
15. LeBron James (LAL – PF,SF)
16. Kevin Durant (PHO – SF,PF)
17. Donovan Mitchell (CLE – PG,SG)
18. Jalen Brunson (NYK – PG,SG)
19. Scottie Barnes (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
20. Chet Holmgren (OKC – C,PF)
21. Kyrie Irving (DAL – PG,SG)
22. De’Aaron Fox (SAC – PG)
23. Alperen Sengun (HOU – C)
24. Damian Lillard (MIL – PG)
25. Ja Morant (MEM – PG)
26. Dejounte Murray (NOR – PG,SG)
27. Tyrese Maxey (PHI – PG,SG)
28. Paolo Banchero (ORL – PF,SF)
29. LaMelo Ball (CHA – PG,SG)
30. Bam Adebayo (MIA – C)
31. James Harden (LAC – PG,SG)
32. Kawhi Leonard (LAC – PF,SF,SG)
33. Paul George (PHI – SF,PF,SG)
34. Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN – C,PF)
35. Lauri Markkanen (UTH – PF,SF)
36. Jaylen Brown (BOS – SG,SF)
37. Desmond Bane (MEM – SF,SG)
38. Evan Mobley (CLE – C,PF)
39. Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM – PF,C)
40. Cade Cunningham (DET – PG,SG)
41. DeMar DeRozan (SAC – PF,SF,SG)
42. Pascal Siakam (IND – C,PF,SF)
43. Jalen Williams (OKC – PF,SF,SG)
44. Nikola Vucevic (CHI – C,PF)
45. Jamal Murray (DEN – PG,SG)
46. Zion Williamson (NOR – C,PF)
47. Franz Wagner (ORL – PF,SF,SG)
48. Mikal Bridges (NYK – PF,SF,SG)
49. Jimmy Butler (MIA – PF,SF)
50. Rudy Gobert (MIN – C)
51. Derrick White (BOS – PG,SG)
52. Brandon Ingram (NOR – PF,SF,SG)
53. Myles Turner (IND – C)
54. Jarrett Allen (CLE – C)
55. Deandre Ayton (POR – C)
56. Fred VanVleet (HOU – PG)
57. Darius Garland (CLE – PG)
58. Jalen Green (HOU – PG,SG)
59. Nic Claxton (BKN – C,PF)
60. Josh Giddey (CHI – PG,SF,SG)
61. Zach LaVine (CHI – SG,SF)
62. Julius Randle (NYK – PF)
63. Keegan Murray (SAC – PF,SF)
64. Immanuel Quickley (TOR – PG,SG)
65. Kristaps Porzingis (BOS – PF,C) OUT
66. Brandon Miller (CHA – SF,SG)
67. Austin Reaves (LAL – PG,SF,SG)
68. Miles Bridges (CHA – SF,PF)
69. D’Angelo Russell (LAL – PG,SG)
70. Jalen Duren (DET – C)
71. CJ McCollum (NOR – PG,SG)
72. Devin Vassell (SAS – SG,SF)
73. Kyle Kuzma (WAS – SF,PF)
74. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN – PF,SF)
75. Tobias Harris (DET – SF,PF)
76. Jrue Holiday (BOS – PG,SG)
77. Tyler Herro (MIA – PG,SG)
78. Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU – C,PF)
79. Cam Thomas (BKN – SG)
80. Jalen Johnson (ATL – PF,SF)
81. Brook Lopez (MIL – C)
82. Bradley Beal (PHO – PG,SG)
83. Jusuf Nurkic (PHO – C)
84. Jonathan Kuminga (GSW – PF)
85. Jonas Valanciunas (WAS – C)
86. Coby White (CHI – PG,SG)
87. Jordan Poole (WAS – PG,SG)
88. Walker Kessler (UTH – C)
89. Jakob Poeltl (TOR – C)
90. RJ Barrett (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
91. Anfernee Simons (POR – PG,SG)
92. Mark Williams (CHA – C)
93. Clint Capela (ATL – C)
94. Khris Middleton (MIL – SF,SG)
95. Terry Rozier (MIA – PG,SG)
96. OG Anunoby (NYK – PF,SF)
97. Klay Thompson (DAL – SG,SF)
98. Tyus Jones (PHO – PG)
99. Chris Paul (SAS – PG)
100. John Collins (UTH – C,PF)