Major League Baseball’s postseason is great for drama. Sometimes, it’s even better for overanalysis of small sample sizes. Look no further than the discourse that has bubbled up around Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani’s spot in the batting order.
The short version, for those blissfully unaware, goes like this. Ohtani has hit leadoff in all seven of Los Angeles’ postseason contests to date, and has developed some odd splits during that time. Whereas he’s 0 for 19 with the bases empty, he’s 6 for 8 with someone aboard. The argument some have made, then, is that Ohtani should be moved down in the order so that he’s more likely to come up with a runner on base — thereby, apparently, unlocking the full extent of his powers that are otherwise locked away.
Anyone familiar with how baseball, statistics, and/or baseball statistics knows this is silly. That includes the Dodgers themselves, who were asked if they had any plans of moving Ohtani down in the order when their National League Championship Series against the New York Mets resumes on Wednesday.
“It’s just funny how things change, where there was a lot of concern about Shohei not being able to get hits with the runners in scoring position — and now we’re all trying to find ways … to get guys on base so he can hit, right?” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters, including ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. “I kind of find that comical, a little bit.”
Roberts is correct to find humor in the situation. Consider that during the regular season, Ohtani batted leadoff in 90 games and still produced the first 50-homer, 50-steal season in Major League Baseball history. Additionally, he finished the year with an identical 1.036 OPS in situations with the bases empty or a man on.
In other words, rest assured that this is a case where the statistics are descriptive and not predictive. Ohtani’s numbers will even out as the sample grows.
