The Phoenix Suns didn’t trade for Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in order to get swept in the first round of the playoffs. When the Minnesota Timberwolves, a team they had dominated in the regular season, beat them four straight times in April, it stamped their 2023-24 season as a failure. Devin Booker said after Game 4 that they needed to pay more attention to the “details” instead of thinking they could “win off talent.” A week-and-a-half later, they fired coach Frank Vogel.
Given how disastrously the season ended, it is easy to forget that some things did go right for the Suns. In his pseudo-PG role, Booker’s assists went up, his turnovers went down and he scored as efficiently as usual. Durant only missed seven games, his fewest since tearing his Achilles in 2019. Jusuf Nurkic missed only six games, his fewest since 2017-18, and generally fit in about as well as Phoenix could have hoped. Grayson Allen had a career year, making an absurd 46.1% of his 3s.
The Suns entered the offseason with few tools to upgrade the roster, but they managed to make significant moves. Maybe new coach Mike Budenholzer will nail all those “details,” in addition to increasing their 3-point rate. Maybe new point guards Tyus Jones and Monte Morris will make sure the system runs smoothly. Maybe, with veteran big man Mason Plumlee and rookie forward Ryan Dunn joining Allen and Royce O’Neale on the second unit, depth will be a strength. Given how they looked the last time we saw them, though, they’re not going to be in the championship conversation until they prove they belong.
The state of play
Last year: Beal, Booker and Durant played together in exactly half of the Suns’ games, and they went 26-15 in that sample, i.e. good, but not dominant, just like the team’s plus-6.6 point differential in their minutes; after getting roasted by Luka Doncic on Christmas, Phoenix was 14-15, but it finished the regular season 49-33 (No. 10 on offense, No. 13 on defense) and both Durant and Booker made All-NBA, accomplishments that would feel much more meaningful if the Wolves series hadn’t been so brutal.
The offseason: The Suns are clearly hoping that Budenholzer and the two new “coach on the floor” types will straighten things out in 2024-25. In addition to getting Jones, Morris and Plumlee to sign for the minimum, they re-signed O’Neale (four years, $42 million) and Josh Okogie (two years, $16 million) on tradeable contracts and brought back Bol Bol and Damion Lee on minimums. On draft night, they traded down to get a wing stopper (Dunn, No. 28) and up to get a playmaking 5 (Oso Ighodaro, No. 40). They also dumped David Roddy, waived Nassir Little and waved goodbye to Eric Gordon and Drew Eubanks.
Best case for 2024-25: The offense is among the best in NBA history, the defense slightly improves and the Suns quickly establish themselves as contenders; after Budenholzer wins his third Coach of the Year award, Phoenix is far and away the league’s best clutch team in the playoffs, which powers an unexpected Finals run.
Worst case 2024-25: Beal misses even more games than he did in his first year in Phoenix, the defense is dreadful and a compilation of Nurkic’s missed layups goes down as the season’s most enduring artifact; Durant trade rumors pop up around the deadline and heat up after the Suns are swept in the first round again.
The conversation
Suns believer: It’s funny how the NBA works. Last year, the Suns trade for Bradley Beal and come into the season with all sorts of hype despite glaring holes on the roster. This year, they fill those holes with a miraculous series of signings — Tyus Jones, Monte Morris and Mason Plumlee, all on the minimum??? — and nobody seems to care about them. I bet the people putting them a tier below the “real” title contenders are the same people who complained about Frank Vogel’s coaching and their lack of a traditional point guard last season. Well, Vogel’s gone now! They have not one, but two pass-first point guards! A full season of Royce O’Neale will help, too, and I’m starting to think Ryan Dunn and Oso Ighodaro can play right away.
Suns skeptic: What exactly are you mad about? People were intrigued with Phoenix’s Big 3 last season because it was new. I can’t speak for everyone who is a bit hesitant to pump up the Suns right now, but, after watching them last season, I’m less intrigued! This isn’t a superteam, really. The offense was pretty good, but not what you’d expect out of a team with three legitimate star scorers. The defense was, like, fine, I guess. The front office found good value in free agency, for sure, but, unless Mike Budenholzer turns Jusuf Nurkic into Brook Lopez, I don’t see these guys getting out of the West.
Suns believer: Did you see the Mavericks getting out of the West last year? What about the Nuggets the year before? The formula for these Suns, I think, is similar: Be absolutely unstoppable offensively, and be disciplined on the other end. Nurkic isn’t going to protect the rim like Lopez, but he’s a perfectly competent drop defender, a great rebounder and one of the better passing bigs out there. Maybe he’ll get a few more 3s up under Budenholzer — I anticipate that everybody will — but I don’t imagine his role changing much. The big change, to me, is going to be how the stars are used. Particularly Booker. It’s taxing to have to initiate the offense as often as he did under Vogel; if he can have one of his most efficient seasons as the de facto point guard, imagine how efficient he’ll be when the point guards are setting him up for open shots. Budenholzer is going to use him as a screener, run him off pindowns and generally make it harder for opponents to game-plan for him.
Suns skeptic: Oh, right, I forgot to correct you earlier: I was definitively not one of the people who kept harping on the Suns’ lack of a point guard last season. I mean, they weren’t always the most organized team offensively, but playmaking was the least of their problems. And while I understand the argument for mixing up Booker’s usage, I’m a bit confused about why that is necessary. When Mike D’Antoni went to Houston, put the ball in James Harden‘s hands and called him a “points guard,” everybody said it was brilliant. Throughout Kevin Durant’s career, I’ve always wanted to see a team surround him with similar spacing and let him cook the same way. Instead, you’re telling me that Booker and KD and Beal are all going to be running around off the ball — or standing around on the perimeter — so Jones can run pick-and-rolls and Nurkic can get his high-post touches? This doesn’t seem like the most efficient way to play.
Suns believer: I guess you hated how KD played with the Warriors, then. Honestly, I’m sort of flabbergasted because I never thought I’d have to explain to someone why ball movement and unpredictability are good. The Suns didn’t sign Jones and Morris so they could turn the Big 3 into spectators; they signed Jones and Morris to make the Big 3 more dangerous. Booker, KD and Beal will all get to run pick-and-rolls, I promise. Ideally, though, this iteration of the Suns will feel more like a team than last year’s did. Ideally, they will avoid my-turn, your-turn basketball, and they won’t lead the league in long 2s. You don’t actually like stagnant offense, do you? Are you anti-passing? Anti-cutting? Anti-fun?
Suns skeptic: I’m not against any of those things, but I’m against presenting aesthetic preferences as if they’re something else. I care about points, not style points. Just once, I would like to hear a coach say at media day that the team is working on playing slower and passing the ball less frequently, if only to combat the notion that every basketball problem can be solved with pace and ball movement. I’ll always remember that, when D’Antoni was with the Rockets, he said, “You move around a lot, you wind up closer to the rim, shooting runners and shit.” He knew what he was talking about, and I keep thinking about what he would’ve planned if the Suns had brought him back instead of hiring Budenholzer. My guess: Grayson Allen would be in the starting lineup and space the floor way behind the 3-point line. KD would be the nominal starting center, but he and Booker would share playmaking duties the way Harden and Chris Paul did. Royce O’Neale would start at the 4 spot, but he, not Durant, would usually defend opposing 5s. If Dunn is as good as you think he is, maybe Beal would be the sixth man.
Suns believer: D’Antoni would bench Jones, Nurkic and Beal? I thought you were trying to imply that he’s smart. Congratulations, though, for accusing me of putting style over substance, then immediately proposing a crazy gimmick that would only appeal to the sort of person who convinced themselves that the 2020 Rockets were going to win the title. The whole reason I’m confident that Budenholzer is the right guy for the Suns is that he understands how to play to a team’s strengths. In Atlanta, he turned Kyle Korver into an absolute monster, built an elite offense without a traditional superstar and built an elite defense that operated completely differently than the one he’d go on to build in Milwaukee. Every coach has his principles — I’m sure, based on Budenholzer’s history, that Phoenix will emphasize spacing, transition defense, avoiding fouls and taking care of the ball — but what he does with this team will be a bit different than what he’s done before.
Suns skeptic: Budenholzer isn’t the first coach that comes to mind when I think about adaptability, but I sure hope he’s open-minded with this gig. It worries me, though, that they promised Jones a starting spot and Budenholzer announced his starting lineup before training camp even began. The Jones-Beal-Booker-Durant-Nurkic group is tiny on the wing, and it asks way too much of Booker and Beal defensively. Besides, why box yourself in before you have to?
Suns believer: You’re making something out of nothing. Budenholzer was just stating the obvious. Jones wouldn’t be in Phoenix if the team hadn’t offered him a starting job, and Allen was more than willing to sacrifice his spot. I don’t get why you hate Nurkic so much, but even if you want to trade him, benching him seems like a bad move. Beal is Beal, end of discussion. The Suns aren’t “boxed in” whatsoever; if this look isn’t working at the beginning of the season, Budenzholer can do whatever he wants with the rotation. I’m sure Jones understands that his spot is contingent on him, you know, helping the team win. Why won’t you just acknowledge that Phoenix improved in a big way this summer instead of looking for little things to complain about?
Suns skeptic: I am happy to state for the record that the Suns’ overall talent level improved this summer. Given their insane payroll, it was impressive that they were able to grab any free agents other teams were interested in. They’re beyond all-in, though, KD is 36 years old and you can’t count on Beal to be available. The goal heading into the offseason was not to assemble a team that could win a few more games in the regular season; it was to assemble a team that can realistically win a title. I don’t believe the front office has done that, and I don’t believe this is the kind of shortcoming that qualifies as a “little thing.”
