Leading up to Game 3 of the NLCS between the Dodgers and Mets, a conversation had been happening about Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani. Well, OK, a lot of conversations were happening about him, but one in particular stood out as a pretty funny and interesting anomaly.
He was hitting like an absolute stud in the playoffs, as long as there were runners on base. If the bases were empty, he’d been absolutely terrible.
Sure enough, the emerging trend continued through Game 3 Wednesday. Ohtani started the game with four plate appearances with no runners on base. He went 0 for 3 with a walk and strikeout. He then came to the plate with two runners on in the top of the eighth and, well …
For those who truly believe there’s something behind this, it had to feel like a pretty predictable result, right?
It’s pretty extreme. Now through eight playoff games, the first eight of Ohtani’s MLB career, take a look:
With runners on: 7 for 9, 2 HR, 8 RBI
With bases empty: 0 for 22
It especially becomes interesting against the backdrop of Ohtani as leadoff hitter. Not only is he guaranteed to start every single game with the bases empty, but, at least in theory, the weaker hitters slide toward the bottom of the order. That means, on paper, Ohtani is far more likely to come up with the bases empty than with runners on base.
For those curious, this is not something that carried over from the regular season. Here are the splits from 2024 before we got to the playoffs:
With runners on: .308/.401/.635
With bases empty: .311/.382/.654
Perhaps some people would like to argue that Ohtani gets pitched differently with runners on and there’s an impact there, but wouldn’t pitchers be more careful with him when there were runners on base? Some might say Ohtani is somehow pressing in certain situations, but if he was nervous or something, wouldn’t it, again, be worse with runners on base?
This provides a simple conclusion here, which is that it’s just a coincidence. If it were truly a trend, the Dodgers might think about moving him to the second or third spot in the lineup in the hope that he got more opportunities with runners on base.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts agreed when asked if there was any thought to shuffling his lineup before Game 3.
“No, there isn’t,” he said. “I just think that early on it’s just funny how things change where there was a lot of concern about Shohei not being able to get hits with the runners in scoring position. And now we’re all trying to find ways that he’s — have to get guys on base so he can hit, right? I kind of find that comical, a little bit.”
If a lineup move was done simply because of the 7 for 9 vs. 0 for 22, that would be foolish and Roberts agrees. He was right to call it “comical.” This situation is little more than just a fun, small-sample quirk. For now, at least.
