The NFL season is flying by. One day you’re getting ready for the year, the next day it’s Week 7. One day you’re pretending to have a hamstring injury because you’re sick of Gardner Minshew and Aiden O’Connell chucking wild ducks at your legs, the next day you’re back with your old best friend Aaron Rodgers. Obligatory, but: good luck finding a house with a Taco Bell inside it in New Jersey, Mr. Davante Adams.
Tuesday was a wild, WILD day in the NFL. We found out the Super Bowl will be back in Atlanta soon and the AFC East arms race got out of control. Some quick thoughts on the pair of receiver trades that had the league buzzing.
I think the trade makes the Jets better: No duh, right? The Jets getting Davante, who is still very much a very good receiver, makes them immediately better and it takes a burden off Garrett Wilson (the best No. 2 in the league now?) while giving Rodgers someone he has immediate comfort and rapport with, especially around the red zone. The Jets are 2-4 but the season is far from over. It’s not even Halloween yet. When you have a window like the Jets do with Rodgers, why not push some of your chips in with a guy like Adams who only wanted to be in New York?
However, it comes across as a little desperate. Adams reportedly took a red eye the night of the loss to the Bills, but the Jets consummated the deal one week after firing their coach and one day after losing to the Bills at home on Monday night. Woody Johnson and Rodgers feel like the guys in charge in New York, which is fine because Woody’s the owner and Aaron’s the QB savior. But there are just some missing parts still when it comes to this team, especially on the offensive line and in run defense. I don’t know that Adams necessarily fixes those, you know?
I like the Bills trade better: Buffalo acquired Amari Cooper for relatively nothing and I love the move. Not only did a division rival swing for the fences with a wide receiver trade they quickly answered, but they prevented the Chiefs or any other AFC foe from getting Cooper, who was clearly getting dealt by Cleveland. The Browns leaked out he hadn’t lived up to what they wanted, which LOL. Cooper led the league in “uncatchable air yards” and was basically running wind sprints with Deshaun Watson. Ignore any stat that says he isn’t good, he’s still got the juice and now he gets to catch passes from Josh Allen. Anytime Cooper’s had a good quarterback, he’s been a dominant player. The Bills needed an alpha and they got one. This lets Keon Coleman’s development timeline stretch out a bit and eases the burden on guys like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid.
Regardless, these two trades are going to shape the season and be fascinating to watch play out. To some best bets.
Best bets
Saints team total under 17.5 (-125)
We are fading the Saints in a pretty obvious spot and I’m OK with that. The New Orleans offense cratered when the middle of its offensive line went missing after two early weeks of explosive production. Now the Saints are also down Derek Carr, Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed, all of whom are already ruled out for this game. Bub Means is their No. 1 wideout, with Spencer Rattler throwing to him. And that dynamic duo is up against a Broncos defense that’s come on strong the last few weeks. Denver’s popping in terms of advanced metrics (seventh in DVOA) and is fourth in scoring defense. Sean Payton has revenge on his mind but he won’t be too aggressive offensively knowing he can win with a low number. This is an eat-the-clock special on Thursday night and I don’t see the Saints barreling past 17 unless they end up with a special teams or defensive touchdown.
Bet Saints TT under 17.5 (-125) on BetMGM
Bonus: SportsLine’s Matt Severance is leaning under in this matchup. Find out who he likes ATS. Check it out here.
Commanders team total over 30.5 (-120)
Full disclosure: I got this idea from my college football colleague Chip Patterson, who noted that betting the team total over for whoever is playing the Panthers makes a ton of sense. He’s not wrong! The Commanders are bad enough on defense where Carolina should move the ball, which means Jayden Daniels (presumably the chalkiest quarterback in DFS this week) should go off. I considered the under on his rushing yards but he would blow it out of the water with one long run the Panthers can’t stop. I considered Terry McLaurin’s ATD but he’s -130. Daniels won’t throw as much if the Commanders roll so the 240-ish prop bet on his over passing yards wasn’t appealing enough. Let’s just take the Commanders rolling downhill against a terrible defense.
Bet Commanders TT over 30.5 on BetMGM
Tyler Allegier over 38.5 rush yards (-115)
Allegier has hit this number three times so far this season. It’s a high number for a backup. But the Seahawks have been GASHED by the run game this year and are trading for interior offensive linemen to shore up the run defense. The only two teams Seattle’s held under 100 yards rushing are the Broncos in Week 1 and the Tua-less Dolphins in Week 3. The Falcons run game is legit and they mix Allegier in plenty with Bijan Robinson. If Atlanta controls this game he cruises over this number. Even if it’s a shootout, I don’t expect the Falcons to abandon the run, which means a hot-hand drive or two for Allegier puts him over this pretty easily.
Bet Tyler Allegier props at DraftKings Sportsbook
Justin Jefferson over 6.5 receptions (-130)
Jefferson hasn’t hit over this number on the season yet, topping out at six catches in three different games. But his target share looks like a rocket ship at the moment, with Sam Darnold looking his way 30 times over the last three games. The Lions are down pass rushers, but they’re still stout against the run. Aaron Jones is banged up so the Vikings, who despite being favored, may be forced to pass more against their division rival. If they do, Jefferson is going to eat. CeeDee Lamb got seven catches on 14 targets in a noncompetitive game against Detroit last week. This could be an explosion spot for Jefferson and I’d much rather take the catches than the receiving yards, which has creeped back up into the 90s on a weekly basis.
Bet Justin Jefferson props at DraftKings Sportsbook
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
The Ravens-Buccaneers game on Monday night is a FUN one. I’m pumped for it. Lamar Jackson is playing great, Derrick Henry is running the ball well right now and the Tampa offense is cooking! Baker Mayfield has played awesome football all season long; he looks like a former No. 1 overall pick and he draws a defense that is a pass funnel, just like his own. We should see plenty of scoring here, and I’m also partial to the over passing yards 257.5, but I think he finds the end zone twice fairly easily through the air. Hopefully both times to Chris Godwin, for my Fantasy team’s sake.
