The 2024 MLB postseason continues Thursday with two Championship Series games. First up, the Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees for Game 3 at Progressive Field. That’s an afternoon game. The Yankees lead the series 2-0. In the nightcap, the New York Mets will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field for Game 4. The Dodgers have a 2-1 lead in that series.
Here now is one pivotal question each team is facing heading into Thursday’s action.
Guardians: Can the offense break through early?
Cleveland fell behind three innings into Game 1 of the ALCS, and in the first inning of Game 2. They have scored only six total runs in the first four innings of the game this postseason, and five came in the first inning of Game 1 of the ALDS. The Guardians have done most of their scoring in the middle and late innings, which is not ideal when the strength of your team is the bullpen. Cleveland could really use an early lead in Game 3 so they can turn things over to that deep relief crew.
It should be noted Andrés Giménez, Steven Kwan, and José Ramírez have tremendous numbers against Yankees’ Game 3 starter Clarke Schmidt. They’re a combined 13 for 27 (.481) with two doubles against him. Those three continuing their success against Schmidt early in Game 3 would go a long way to getting Cleveland back in the series.
Yankees: Is Judge starting to get hot?
Presumptive AL MVP Aaron Judge drove in three runs in New York’s Game 2 win, including hitting his first homer of the postseason. He also drove in a run with a two-strike sacrifice fly after Cleveland opted to intentionally walk Juan Soto to load the bases. An unconventional move, for sure, but it worked in the sense that the Guardians avoided the big inning.
Judge has been south of excellent in October in his career — he’s a .206/.314/.455 hitter in 50 career postseason games — and eventually the Yankees will need him to make an impact. They’re two wins away from a pennant because Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton (and Gleyber Torres) have been excellent, as has the bullpen. The Yankees need Judge to join the party to have their best chance at winning the franchise’s 28th championship.
Dodgers: Will Yamamoto deliver again?
When the Dodgers signed righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year pact worth $325 million over the winter, before he had ever thrown a pitch in an MLB contest, they probably envisioned him taking the ball in high championship leverage situations. This will be his second consecutive appearance where that’s the case.
Last time out, Game 5 of the NLDS against the Padres, Yamamoto delivered in brilliant fashion. He held San Diego to a pair of hits and a walk across five shutout innings. (The Dodgers have been conservative with his workload since he returned from the IL in September; they’re likely to remain bullpen-heavy now for strategic purposes.)
Can Yamamoto do it again on Thursday? He’s surely talented enough, having won three consecutive MVP and Cy Young equivalent awards to wrap up his career in Japan. As an added bonus, the Mets saw him just once during the regular season, with that coming in April.
If Yamamoto can deliver another gem, he’ll have the Dodgers a win away from the World Series.
Mets: Can they avoid 3-1 hole?
We’ve made the point throughout this postseason that the phrase “must-win game” is overused. The Mets have a game on Friday, no matter what happens on Thursday; that means, by definition, that Game 4 is not a “must-win” contest for New York.
That said, the Mets sure could use a victory to stave off a 3-1 hole. Historically, MLB teams to fall behind by that margin in best-of-seven series have then lost the series on nearly 85% of occasions, according to WhoWins. Perhaps these Mets, who authored an unlikely second-half surge to even get into the postseason, would prove to be an exception to that statistical note. If you’re a Mets booster, you’d rather not find out.
