Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Which NBA teams will be best (and worst) on defense this season? Projecting where all 30 squads will finish

Which NBA teams will be best (and worst) on defense this season? Projecting where all 30 squads will finish

When we published our rankings of all 30 offenses heading into the 2024-25 season, we covered last season’s sizable mid-season scoring decline. Right around the All-Star break, officials drastically cut down on the number of whistles they granted, which in turn created a far more physical brand of basketball down the stretch. While each new season comes with new rules and points of emphasis, the broad strokes of those changes are likely here to stay. Fans liked last season’s changes.

Does that mean we’re heading for a defensive renaissance? Well… not exactly. Even after the changes, data from NBA.com had the average team scoring around 113.3 points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break. That would still be among the most explosive scoring seasons in NBA history, so offense hasn’t exactly disappeared. Teams just have to design their offenses with these changes in mind. Players who rely on foul-grifting need to find new ways to score. Conversely, defenses that struggled to keep foul rates down suddenly have a new license to play aggressively.

That will factor into how we rank all 30 defenses going into the 2024-25 season. As a reminder, these are not rankings of optimized defensive quality. Some of these teams will be better or worse at playing playoff defense than they are regular season defense. Some of them are better equipped to handle injuries. These rankings are meant to project which teams will sit atop the leaderboard for fewest points allowed per 100 possessions at the end of the regular season while factoring in everything we know about the rosters at this moment and the rule changes that came last winter. 

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

2023-24 defensive rating: 111 points per 100 possessions
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 4

The Thunder are No. 1 with a bullet. They have a chance to be historic defensively. The No. 4 defense in the NBA lost its worst player (Josh Giddey) and added the No. 2 (Isaiah Hartenstein) and No. 5 (Alex Caruso) ranked defenders in the NBA by D-EPM last season. Hartenstein, it was revealed Thursday, will miss the first 5-6 weeks of the season with a hand fracture, but OKC’s offseason should make plain just how much talent this team has now. They have two elite rim protectors in Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren. They have three elite perimeter defenders in Caruso, Lu Dort and Cason Wallace. They have last season’s leader in total steals in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The closest thing they have to a negative is Isaiah Joe. The Thunder are basically flawless defensively, and if any weaknesses arise, they have more than enough ammo to fix them on the trade market. The race starts at No. 2.

2. Minnesota Timberwolves

2023-24 defensive rating: 108.4
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 1

Last year’s Timberwolves might have been able to mount a case against the Thunder. They’re just a hair worse this season. Karl-Anthony Towns isn’t exactly a stopper, but his size alone was meaningful. Julius Randle is three inches shorter in height and four in wingspan. Kyle Anderson is still a plus defender and offered a bit of switchability when Minnesota needed it. The Timberwolves are still going to be great defensively. Having Rudy Gobert and three high-end point-of-attack defenders in Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker clinches that. But they’ve gone from special to merely very, very good.

3. Memphis Grizzlies

2023-24 defensive rating: 113.7
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 12

The Grizzlies used 33 different players last season and somehow managed an above-average defensive ranking. This is institutional for them. They never dipped below No. 7 in the three seasons prior to last. As long as they have Taylor Jenkins and Jaren Jackson Jr. they are going to be great defensively. Jackson’s historic 2022-23 season seems to have been forgotten almost entirely. Here’s a reminder: he posted a block rate of 9.6%. Rudy Gobert has never gone above 7.4%. Jackson played last season without the sort of burly center he’s used to having support him. Zach Edey solves that problem. His mobility might be an issue in the playoffs but the regular season is about strengths and Edey has plenty, both literally and figuratively. Marcus Smart somehow isn’t the best Defensive Player of the Year on his own roster anymore. Scotty Pippen Jr. will be among the per-minute steals leaders. Don’t overthink this one. Memphis is always great on defense. They will be again. 

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

2023-24 defensive rating: 112.1
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 7

The Jarrett Allen-Evan Mobley duo has never ranked lower than seventh on defense. They fell to seventh last season largely because of Mobley’s 32-game absence. Nothing is more important to regular-season defensive rankings than rim protection, and Cleveland is one of the very few teams to have multiple big men who can do so at an elite level. Isaac Okoro gets overlooked because of his inconsistency on offense, but he’s grown into a very strong perimeter defender. Dean Wade is there as well when he manages to stay healthy. Having two small guards in the backcourt matters quite a bit in the playoffs. It has never been a problem for Cleveland in the regular season. The Cavaliers ranked No. 1 in 2023. Oklahoma City has that slot locked up, but Cleveland can compete with anyone else defensively.

5. Orlando Magic

2023-24 defensive rating: 110.8
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 3

Jonathan Isaac was the best per-minute defender in the NBA last season. Better than Gobert. Better than Victor Wembanyama. Better than anyone. Orlando’s defensive rating with Isaac on the floor last season was lower than any team has posted over a full season since the 2015-16 San Antonio Spurs. He genuinely is that good. He is also one of the biggest injury risks in the NBA. He played 58 games last season and 45 in the four seasons prior. All of this rests on how much Isaac Orlando gets. Yes, Jalen Suggs is All-Defense-caliber in his own right. Yes, Jamahl Mosley has done a wonderful job of getting his best players, including Paolo Banchero, to buy into a defense-first culture. The Magic were a good defense without Isaac. They’d rank in the top 10 if he retired tomorrow. But their top-five upside rests with him, and Orlando loses two spots compared to last season just because of how unlikely it feels that they get another 58 games out of him.

6. Boston Celtics

2023-24 defensive rating: 110.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 2

The Celtics are probably the only team in the NBA that could truly challenge Oklahoma City’s defense in a playoff setting. They’re probably taking a slight step back in the regular season, though, and that comes down to rim protection. Their starting center is hurt and their backup center is 38 years old. Fast forward to April when Kristaps Porzingis is presumably healthy and Al Horford can afford to go all out and Boston’s defense is as impenetrable as it looked last spring. For now, you’re asking a lot out of such a thin front-court to stay in the top five. Jayson Tatum is among the more underrated secondary rim protectors in the NBA, but he’s not a full-time center. Derrick White and Jrue Holiday were last season’s best backcourt duo by far. They’re also 64 combined years old and coming off of a season in which they played 144 combined regular-season games, four playoff rounds and the Olympics. The Celtics already have a historic regular season under their belts. Champions tend to take their foot off of the gas a bit in ensuing regular seasons. Boston is so talented that its defense will still rank very high, but a repeat of last year’s No. 2 finish seems a tad ambitious.

7. Miami Heat

2023-24 defensive rating: 111.5
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 5

The Heat are the Eastern Conference equivalent to the Grizzlies. Their ranking is institutional. They haven’t finished outside of the top 10 since 2020. They have Erik Spoelstra and Bam Adebayo. That’s enough to be very good. But Miami falls out of the top five because the rest of the roster is starting to tilt more toward offense. Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are rock-solid defensively. Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson obviously are not. Terry Rozier, Nikola Jovic and Jaime Jaquez fall into the category of defensively viable but not exactly plusses. The stellar preseason from rookie Kel’el Ware could be a sign of what’s to come in Miami, and if he turns into a second high-end rim protector, Miami jumps up to the Cleveland range. But Ware is a rookie, and rookies are very rarely consistently good on defense. Even Adebayo played less than 20 minutes per game in his first season. Ware might lift Miami to a lot of high rankings down the line. For now, Miami falls out of the top five.

8. Philadelphia 76ers

2023-24 defensive rating: 113
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 11

Joel Embiid isn’t quite as exciting defensively as Jackson or Adebayo, but Philadelphia broadly checks the same “rock solid at coach and center” box that Miami and Memphis do. If Philadelphia could rank 11th last season getting only 39 games out of Joel Embiid, they should finish in the top 10 this season with a better roster around him in what will hopefully be a healthier season. Nick Nurse has a real claim for the title of best defensive coach in the NBA, and if he isn’t the best, he’s at least the most creative. Having a coach capable of stealing games with unusual tactics means quite a bit during the regular season slog. There’s a reason Miami runs so much zone, after all. Paul George isn’t the stopper he used to be, but he’s still an excellent help defender who can take the hardest matchups in smaller doses. Pretty much everyone they added this offseason defends. They’ll likely seek out another forward at the trade deadline with KJ Martin’s contract and a bevy of first-round picks at their disposal.

9. Los Angeles Clippers

2023-24 defensive rating: 114.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 16

We covered an enormous Clippers drop in the offensive rankings, now we’re coming back around on the other side. The Clippers are a defense-first team now. James Harden is still firmly a negative in that respect and Kawhi Leonard’s health will always be a concern, but the Clippers went out of their way this offseason to reorient the roster around cheaper, defensive-minded wings. Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn are legitimate man-to-man stoppers with significant positional versatility. Nic Batum is going to open up switch everything lineups for the bench, but Ivica Zubac is a sorely underrated rim protector when he’s in the game. Ty Lue, like Nurse, is willing to mix things up and try unusual coverages to swing games. His tendency to lean on offense-first players over defenders in lineup choices might be an issue, but this roster doesn’t give him much of a choice. If the Clippers are going to win, it’s going to have to be with defense. 

10. New Orleans Pelicans

2023-24 defensive rating: 111.9
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 6

Herb Jones alone is almost enough to make the Pelicans a great defense. He did it a year ago, and he’s perhaps the most versatile defender in all of basketball. The hope is that Dejounte Murray can revert to his San Antonio form defensively outside of the defensive dead zone that is Atlanta, and well, that’s not an unreasonable hope. Murray played out of position on a roster with little help as a Hawk. Jose Alvarado gets all of the steals. The Pelicans are so deep on the wings, and therefore so switchable, that they’ll be able to hold up against pretty much any offense that doesn’t have a star big man. Unfortunately, a good number of teams do have star big men, and that makes things harder for a Pelicans team that, beyond Daniel Theis, is pretty much ignoring the center position. They can finagle enough regular-season rim protection and point-of-attack excellence to hold up in pick-and-roll, but the real scoring big men are going to have a field day here. The Pelicans may land a center before the season ends. If they do, they’ll rise up these rankings. For now, it’s too glaring a hole to wind up any higher than this.

11. New York Knicks

2023-24 defensive rating: 112.4
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 9

Tom Thibodeau teams always defend, but this roster deviates from his norms. He’s used to having elite rim protection. He doesn’t with Karl-Anthony Towns at center. Two-big lineups with Mitchell Robinson will look more like his norm late in the season, but it’s unclear how much the Knicks will even use those looks when they’re available. The Knicks have a chance to be the best offense in the league with Towns as the lone big man. He and Jalen Brunson are average at best on defense. The wings will carry the load early, though pigeonholing OG Anunoby as anything seems a bit restricting. He’ll likely be the primary Joel Embiid matchup at points this season, for example, but having Mikal Bridges next to him and Josh Hart and Deuce McBride waiting in reserve ensures that nobody will ever need to handle a difficult assignment alone for 48 minutes. The defense doesn’t have to be great for the Knicks to win it all. Offense will lead the way here, at least at first. But come on. No Thibodeau team with this much talent is falling further than this.

12. Houston Rockets

2023-24 defensive rating: 112.8
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 10

The Rockets did about as well defensively last season as a team can do without a defensive negative at center. Alperen Sengun is here to lead the offense. The defense falls on everyone else. Fortunately, Houston has plenty of capable defenders. Dillon Brooks is a former All-Defense pick. Fred VanVleet should’ve gotten one by now. Amen Thompson is going to get there soon. Tari Eason has a shot as well. Jabari Smith has all of the tools. There’s not one Defensive Player of the Year-caliber star leading the way here. Just a whole bunch of versatile and reliable defenders with a coach who demands the best out of them. That’s how you build a unit around a center like Sengun.

13. Dallas Mavericks

2023-24 defensive rating: 114.9
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 18

The Mavericks ranked No. 1 on the offense list. With their No. 13 defense ranking, they’re at a cumulative 14 among the two. I expect their overall number to fall somewhere in that range, but it’s up to them to decide how much they want to emphasize either end of the court. If they decide to start Klay Thompson in the Derrick Jones Jr. slot, they’re going to be unstoppable on offense and average on defense. If they start Naji Marshall and bring Thompson off of the bench, they’ll look more like last year’s team: a defensive menace that gets its offense out of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving without focusing too heavily on maximizing efficiency at all costs. The former appears more likely for a variety of reasons, and that puts an enormous burden on Dereck Lively to lift the starters with his elite rim protection and burgeoning versatility. If the playoffs are any indication, he’s ready to do so. There aren’t stars behind him on this defense (though Marshall is an under-appreciated gem), but the collective basketball IQ and athleticism here is considerable. Irving defends when he needs to. Thompson is still useful on bigger players. P.J. Washington improved by leaps and bounds as a Maverick. Dallas has indicated it wants to win with offense this season, and that leaves the defense in the middle of the pack. But the tools for a better ranking are there if Dallas needs them.

14. San Antonio Spurs

2023-24 defensive rating: 115.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 21

How high can you rank a team based on a single player? Victor Wembanyama was so good defensively as a rookie that most sports books have his implied odds of winning Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore well north of 60%. We’re in uncharted waters here, and the notion of a great rim protector lifting up an otherwise unspectacular defense is hardly unheard of. Rudy Gobert did it frequently in Utah, and Wembanyama might already be better than Gobert was at his peak. You could credibly argue that Wembanyama and San Antonio’s cumulative athleticism alone might be enough for a top-five ranking. That just feels a bit too ambitious given how limited the rest of this team is. The majority of the roster is still on rookie contracts and young players tend to struggle defensively. The veterans all come with other defects. Chris Paul turns 40 this season. He just doesn’t have much left physically. Harrison Barnes didn’t last season either even though he’s quite a bit younger. Zach Collins has major long-term health question marks. Wembanyama rated as the NBA’s seventh-best defender last season by EPM. There isn’t another player on this roster that rated in the top 110. By all means, get as excited about Wembanyama individually as you want. He could win 10 Defensive Player of the Year trophies. Stephon Castle and Jeremy Sochan have enormous defensive potential. This year? The Spurs are probably around average. If it’s any consolation, they probably aren’t going to be average again for a long time afterward.

15. Denver Nuggets

2023-24 defensive rating: 112.3
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 8

We’ve long since graduated beyond the “Nikola Jokic is a defensive liability” discourse, but that doesn’t mean he’s nearly the defensive force many metrics suggest he is. He has specific utilities. He’s a world-class rebounder with great hands that knows exactly where to be. He isn’t a rim protector, and without one, Denver is probably going to slip. Losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hurts. He was nearly All-Defense-caliber a year ago, and while Jokic may not be a liability, Denver starts three decidedly offense-centric players with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. factored in. Christian Braun is a downgrade from Caldwell-Pope, and losing him to the starting lineup hurts the bench. Peyton Watson is more than ready for a bigger role. He might already be the best defender on the team. But Michael Malone is extremely hesitant to trust young players, and Watson fell out of the playoff rotation a year ago. His shot is going to be an issue as well with Russell Westbrook in tow. Denver is going to have to make hard choices to balance its lineups, and shooting is such an issue right now that the better defensive players may not get as many minutes as they otherwise should. Add all of that together and Denver should still survive on defense, but won’t thrive.

16. Golden State Warriors

2023-24 defensive rating: 114.5
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 15

It’s really, really hard to imagine a Draymond Green defense being worse than average. It’s never happened outside of the 2019-20 tanking season. It turns out having the NBA’s smartest defender is pretty valuable. It’s just not clear what else Golden State really has defensively anymore. These aren’t the “switch everything” Warriors of the dynasty years with Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Kevin Durant to throw at any problem. Gary Payton II is the only other top defender on the roster, but how much is he really going to play? Stephen Curry and Brandin Podziemski represent the present and future of Golden State’s backcourt, and De’Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield were paid plenty of money to jump aboard. Melton is a good defender when healthy, but back injuries are terrifying. What version of Andrew Wiggins are we getting? Does Kevon Looney have anything left in the tank? How ugly could contract negotiations with Jonathan Kuminga get, and could that spill over onto the court? It would be an oversimplification to suggest Golden State has no rim protector. Green does that because he does everything. But there isn’t a player on this roster, excluding two-ways, taller than 6-9. This is a small front court that got killed at the point of attack last season. Green can’t be a superhero forever.

17. Los Angeles Lakers

2023-24 defensive rating: 114.8
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 17

If Wembanyama and Green didn’t give it away, we’ve reached the “one incredible player” portion of the list. Anthony Davis? Great. No notes. Keep doing what you’re doing, big fella, even if the trophies won’t follow. There’s just nothing else here to get attached to. At least the Warriors have a Payton-level point-of-attack defender, even if they don’t use him much. The Laker equivalent would be Jarred Vanderbilt, who is still recovering from the injury that ruined last season for him. The starting lineup leans fully into the offense. Neither D’Angelo Russell nor Austin Reaves can defend primary ball-handlers. One of them will have to. There isn’t a worthwhile traditional center to be found on this roster, and the no-Davis minutes are going to be a slog. LeBron James is about to turn 40. His basketball IQ isn’t going anywhere but sooner or later everything else will. Davis and James missed 17 combined games last season, but averaged more than 60 in the three prior seasons. They’ll survive the Davis minutes defensively because Davis really is that good. If your hope for doing much more than that is a Max Christie breakout season or an offense capable of surviving Vanderbilt’s presence, you’re looking at a middle-of-the-pack defense at best.

18. Milwaukee Bucks

2023-24 defensive rating: 115
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 19

And here we conclude the “one great trait” portion of the list. Between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, the Bucks are still going to be good near the basket. But the numbers suggest they were already slipping in that regard. The Bucks used to be impenetrable near the basket. In 2019 they allowed opponents to make only 55.2% of their shots in the restricted area. That was more than four percentage points better than any other defense. Last year, that figure was 66%, 14th in the league, and they tied for the ninth-fewest restricted area attempts allowed. If the Bucks are just good near the basket and not as great as they’ve been at their peak, it’s hard to see this defense being all that effective given the point-of-attack disaster we witnessed last season. Gary Trent Jr. is an upgrade over Malik Beasley but he’s never been up for the sort of “defend the best opposing guard all night” duties he just inherited. Damian Lillard was a bad defender at his peak and he’s worse now. Khris Middleton has lost a step or five through these recent injuries. Milwaukee’s path to contention is on offense. Short of Antetokounmpo turning back time to 2020, the defense just needs to hold on.

19. Toronto Raptors

2023-24 defensive rating: 118.1
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 26

This is your standard issue promising younger defense. There’s plenty of athleticism and energy. Scottie Barnes is already a good defender and Immanuel Quickley has gotten there in smaller doses. Jakob Poeltl brings unglamorous, above-average rim protection. The ingredients for a decent enough defense are here. But so much of defensive success comes down to habit building and continuity. The Raptors aren’t there yet. They’re still figuring out what that team is, and that’s going to mean playing younger, offense-centric players like Gradey Dick meaningful minutes. The Raptors are on the right track, but it’ll be another year or two before they’re fully-formed defensively.

20. Phoenix Suns

2023-24 defensive rating: 113.7
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 13

There’s a good deal to like here, especially for such an offense-first team. The Suns were deceptively above-average on defense last season. Mike Budenholzer teams always protect the rim and rebound. Ryan Dunn making 3-pointers in the preseason is a possible game-changer. He has transformative defensive upside, but his offense knocked him down draft boards. But the Suns really can’t rank any higher than this for the simple reason that none of their five projected starters are all that impactful defensively. Kevin Durant is the best of the five and, like Tatum, pretty underrated as a help defender near the rim. He’s not taking out a top opposing matchup for 30 minutes. Jusuf Nurkic is below-average among starting centers at the very least, and until Dunn enters the game, he’s not getting much point-of-attack help. This team has very little schematic flexibility. It’s going to play basic, drop coverage, and it doesn’t have the personnel to do so at a particularly high level.

21. Sacramento Kings

2023-24 defensive rating: 114.4
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 14

On March 1 of last season, the Kings ranked 20th on defense. They ranked No. 3 the rest of the way to land at No. 14 overall. So what happened? Well, offense-first players like Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk got hurt, clearing the way for ace defender Keon Ellis to take on a bigger role. Ellis is still here. But so are the offense-first players, who are now healthy again. Joining them is non-defender DeMar DeRozan. Domantas Sabonis rebounds so well that the Kings have survived his defensive deficiencies in the regular season, but he’s still not actually providing much when it comes to generating stops. Ellis and Keegan Murray are the only two players to get excited about here, but look at some of the names on the last few teams we’ve covered. If you’re only getting excited about one or two guys, Davis and Antetokounmpo probably take priority. 

22. Detroit Pistons

2023-24 defensive rating: 118
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 25

If Ausar Thompson didn’t share a rookie class with Wembanyama, Holmgren and Lively, we’d be talking about him as one of the best first-year defenders in recent NBA history. He is the rare perimeter player with legitimate Defensive Player of the Year upside. Unless you believe the old Ben Simmons still exists somewhere deep down in Brooklyn, no team in the bottom-eight has a player like Thompson. He is the last truly elite defender left on the list. The Pistons are young, but between Thompson, Jalen Duren, Cade Cunningham and J.B. Bickerstaff’s strong track record of building regular-season defenses, this is as low as the Pistons can go.

23. Indiana Pacers

2023-24 defensive rating: 117.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 24

The Pacers found an innovative solution to their “we don’t really employ any defensive-minded players” problem last season. Rather than trying and failing to stop everything, the Pacers dogmatically protected the 3-point line and nothing else. They allowed 2.2 fewer 3-pointers per game than any other team, but nobody gave up more shots in the restricted area. The logic was that Myles Turner is good enough on his own that he could manage the paint without help so resources could be directed towards the arc. Did it work? Well, not really. The Pacers ranked 24th in defense, and that was with a Pascal Siakam trade-induced bump. Having Siakam for the whole season helps, but Aaron Nesmith is under-qualified as a primary perimeter stopper and Turner isn’t the defender he was a few years ago. The Pacers would begrudgingly take a ranking in this range if only because the alternative, as we saw early last season, could have been dead last. They’re going to win games on offense. Defense is just what they do to kill time between fast breaks.

24. Portland Trail Blazers

2023-24 defensive rating: 116.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 23

Donovan Clingan has monstrous defensive potential. For now, he’s stuck behind Deandre Ayton. Toumani Camara was a League Pass treat last season, and Jerami Grant and Deni Avdija are both solid veterans. This is just a very young and very guard-heavy roster. Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons just give opponents a lot of offensively-inclined players to punish, and while Ayton was at one time a strong defender, he’s regressed meaningfully since his Phoenix peak. Couple in the likelihood that Portland takes an intentional step back on the in-season trade market, and this defense will finish near the bottom of the league.

25. Brooklyn Nets

2023-24 defensive rating: 115.4
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 20

In case it wasn’t clear, this is a space for Simmons skepticism, even if that doesn’t really need to be stated anymore. The rest of the roster could be decent defensively, at least at first. Nic Claxton mounted a real All-Defense case two years ago. Dorian Finney-Smith and Cam Johnson are viable two-way veterans. The issue with ranking the Nets on where they are today is that they’ve been signaling their intent to tank since June. You don’t trade for your own first-round picks back and then allow your defense to be decent. The Nets paid a hefty price for the right to tank, and it’s a right they’re going to exercise. Either they’ll be bad organically and it will be fine or they’ll over perform early in the season and the front office will correct it with trades and lineup changes and nagging injuries.

26. Utah Jazz

2023-24 defensive rating: 119.6
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 30

Walker Kessler’s journey from Team USA after his rookie season to Summer League after his second has been perplexing. Why has Kessler been in so many trade rumors this summer? That he’s on this roster is really its only saving grace defensively at the moment. Losing Kris Dunn stings quite a bit more. The problem here is that it’s unclear how much Kessler will even play. Will Utah start Lauri Markkanen at small forward so John Collins and Kessler can play together? The Kessler-Collins pairing didn’t work last season. Unless the Jazz get rim protection out of Kessler similar to his rookie season, they are going to be bad defensively this season.

27. Atlanta Hawks

2023-24 defensive rating: 118.4
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 27

Trae Young has played for four bottom-five defenses and no above-average defenses. It’s not fair to pin all of Atlanta’s defensive woes on him, but having perhaps the worst defensive player in the NBA, at least among the high-minutes crowd, certainly doesn’t help. What the Hawks do have going for them is that they have plenty of rangy, athletic wings. Dyson Daniels is a good defender. So is Jalen Johnson. Zaccharie Risacher will get there. De’Andre Hunter is fine. But Hunter is the only reliable shooter in that crowd, so playing all of those forwards together will be a challenge, and even if they can, it’s a very young group. Clint Capela is still a starting-caliber defensive center, but he’s not exactly exciting anyone anymore. Onyeka Okongwu was supposed to grow into his replacement and an elite defender. That hasn’t quite happened yet. Perhaps the Hawks get by with those wing athletes, but given Young’s track record, that seems pretty unlikely.

28. Charlotte Hornets

2023-24 defensive rating: 119.2
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 29

Mark Williams was great at the end of his rookie season and proceeded to miss most of his sophomore campaign due to injury. Tidjane Salaun projects very well defensively, but he’s got a ways to go. Charles Lee is at least coming from great defensive teams. After that, it’s a real strain to find positives on defense. This is one of the NBA’s youngest rosters, and with years of rebuilding ahead, the defense is still going to be near the bottom of the league.

29. Chicago Bulls

2023-24 defensive rating: 115.7
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 22

Do you know how hard it is to rank No. 22 in the NBA on defense with Alex Caruso on your team? If you can’t get stops when you have someone who can defend anyone in the NBA but Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid, you’re going to get a whole lot worse when you don’t have that player. Right now, Chicago’s defensive hopes are pinned to the hope that Patrick Williams lives up to his promise as a No. 4 overall pick. Chicago made a $90 million bet that he will. It hasn’t happened yet, at least not to the extent it would need to in order for the Bulls to replace Caruso. Chicago has perhaps the worst starting defensive center in the NBA in Nikola Vucevic. The point guard situation, between Josh Giddey, Zach LaVine and Coby White, isn’t much better. There’s nothing here.

30. Washington Wizards

2023-24 defensive rating: 118.9
2023-24 defensive ranking: No. 30

Let’s talk Wizards with a positive Defensive EPM last season. Deni Avdij, Daniel Gafford and Delon Wright are on other teams. Tristan Vukcevic and Ryan Rollins played 219 total minutes. End of list. The best defender on this roster today is… Kyle Kuzma? Could Bilal Couilbaly take enough of a jump in his second season to get there? Alex Sarr is going to be a mess on offense early, but perhaps he can bring a whiff of defense here? You get the idea. We ranked the Wizards as the NBA’s worst offense yesterday. Now, they are the league’s worst defense as well. They are the comfortably the NBA’s worst overall team.

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