It’s officially time to welcome the Indiana Hoosiers to the masquerade. Unbeaten through seven games following their 49-point bludgeoning of Nebraska, Curt Cignetti’s team debuts this week as a worthy inclusion in the latest College Football Playoff projection ahead of next month’s initial rankings reveal.
Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke isn’t expected to play in Saturday’s home game against Washington with an injury, but backup Tayven Jackson is more than capable of keeping this train on the tracks after tossing two touchdowns in the second half of the Hoosiers’ destruction of the Huskers. Indiana is still a 6.5-point favorite vs. Washington, even without Rourke.
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Cignetti dared to dream big in Bloomington and his Year 1 plan through the transfer portal and relentless aggression offensively are primary factors in Indiana’s national rise. The Hoosiers, who have pivotal upcoming matchups with Michigan and Ohio State down the stretch, are one of four Big Ten teams in our Week 9 projection.
Joining Indiana with notable momentum is Georgia. The Bulldogs are the new SEC favorite after pounding the Texas offensive line over the weekend and quieting one of the nation’s most explosive attacks. A 23-point first half lead on the road was the best Georgia has looked this season, and that’s with quarterback Carson Beck throwing it to the other team after an admittedly “off” outing.
Texas A&M and LSU are the only SEC teams without a conference loss and they’ll meet Saturday in College Station. The winner owns sole possession of first place in the league standings entering the final month of the season and jumps to near-lock status as a probable playoff participant.
Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets. The Bulldogs are the favorites at +350 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders to win the CFP are Ohio State at +450, Texas at +475 and Oregon at +500, according to latest odds at Caesars. But in our projected bracket, we actually have Oregon at No. 1. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.
Projected CFP Rankings
1. Oregon
Big Ten champion
Dan Lanning’s stock is at an all-time high and will continue to climb with more wins for the nation’s new No. 1 team. The Ducks are the best team in the Big Ten with college football’s top win and showed no signs of slowing down post-Ohio State during their shutout win at Purdue. The Ducks host No. 20 Illinois this Saturday on CBS (3:30 p.m. ET).
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +500
2. Georgia
SEC champion
Nobody believed in us. Kirby Smart actually said that after the Bulldogs’ 30-15 stomping of Texas. Georgia has lost one regular-season game in four years, but managed to thrive with the underdog label on the road against the Longhorns. Jalon Walker, Mykel Williams and the rest of Georgia’s defense played with a swagger we haven’t seen much this fall. Should that continue, the Bulldogs will get to Atlanta and win a conference championship.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +350
3. Clemson
ACC champion
Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik said he left a few throws on the field following Clemson’s 48-31 win over Virginia, but still managed to finish with 308 yards passing and three scores. With the help of an overhauled group of first-year pass-catchers, a veteran tight end and a much-improved Antonio Williams, the Tigers are scoring points at will and appear to have fewer questions than unbeaten Miami in the ACC.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1600
4. BYU
Big 12 champion
Hit repeat on BYU’s playlist and let it spin. The Cougars keep winning and they’re doing it in different. Last week’s comeback win against Oklahoma State featured a 35-yard touchdown with 10 seconds left. A loss to the Cowboys would’ve created chaos in the Big 12 behind Iowa State as the league’s lone unbeaten, but it didn’t happen. BYU is a narrow favorite this weekend in Orlando against UCF.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +17500
5. Texas
Did Steve Sarkisian press panic too early against Georgia? People are asking. His decision to yank Quinn Ewers for Arch Manning in the second quarter for a change-of-pace possession brought into question the length of leash Sarkisian actually has on his starting quarterback, even though Ewers returned in the second half and threw two touchdowns. The Longhorns fell from No. 1 to No. 5 in the AP Poll after their first setback. They’ll try to redeem themselves on the road Saturday against ranked Vanderbilt.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +475
6. Ohio State
Even if the Buckeyes were to win every remaining regular season game then lose for a second time to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, they’re still going to be one of the top-seeded at-large selections. Part of the reason for that is the Buckeyes’ resume would include victories over then-unbeaten Penn State and Indiana as long as the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers keep it up. There’s a ton of ‘what-ifs’ in this scenario for Ohio State, who just needs to get to 11 wins.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +425
7. Miami
Three consecutive one-possession wins for the Hurricanes gives pause on ranking Miami any higher in Week 9 despite its unblemished record. Other than Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, there’s not a player in the country who means more to his team’s success than Cam Ward, college football’s passing leader. He was dynamic again at Louisville, including a toss to the back of the end zone in the first half that left NFL scouts salivating.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1800
8. Penn State
Penn State’s overtime win at USC should not be understated — the Nittany Lions responded to a two-touchdown halftime deficit with successful late-game execution before prevailing in the extra session. The next two games — at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State — are pivotal.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1300
9. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish will be tested on Saturday against unbeaten Navy, the first of two games against service academies currently ranked inside the Top 25 for Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman’s team is ahead of Texas A&M in these updated playoff projections due to the Fighting Irish’s win at Kyle Field to open the season.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +4000
10. Indiana
The buzz is real for the Hoosiers. Nebraska was a barometer game for the program and Indiana aced their test. This team poses problems for the opposition offensively with pace and explosive plays. The path to getting an at-large playoff bid is 11 wins for the Hoosiers.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +5000
11. Texas A&M
The Aggies are one of a handful of SEC teams behind Georgia and Texas in the league’s perceived pecking order still in control of their playing destiny through Week 8. Texas A&M will be the league’s only unbeaten team after two months of action if the Aggies take care of business at home against LSU. The Tigers are just as hot and, like Texas A&M, haven’t lost since opening weekend.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +3500
12. Boise State
Friday’s showdown at UNLV for the Broncos is their most important matchup left on the schedule. A win in Las Vegas means Boise State fans can start clearing their calendars for December and the start of the playoff. The UNLV defense would love to spoil Jeanty’s Heisman parade with its best performance in the trenches. This should be fun to watch in the Mountain West.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +15000
Projected CFP first-round games
- (12) Boise State at (5) Texas — Winner plays (4) BYU
- (11) Texas A&M at (6) Ohio State — Winner plays (3) Clemson
- (10) Indiana at (7) Miami — Winner plays (2) Georgia
- (9) Notre Dame at (8) Penn State — Winner plays (1) Oregon
Opening-round matchups at campus sites based on this Week 9 projection features Boise State at Texas, Indiana at Miami, Notre Dame at Penn State and Texas A&M at Ohio State. That’s two first-round home games for the Big Ten, one for the ACC and one for the SEC runner-up.
Winners of those four games would move on to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals at bowl sites including the Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the highest-ranked SEC or Big 12 team in the quarters, so second-seeded Alabama would be playing in New Orleans.
Logjam of SEC elites on the bubble
Tennessee isn’t worried about heavy fines after its fans rushed the field following the Vols’ second win in three years over Alabama. The victory keeps season-long goals out front for Tennessee and the Vols will be favored in every remaining game except Georgia. Like one-loss LSU and Missouri, Tennessee is very much in the conversation for one of the at-large berths. All will be decided in the coming weeks for the nine SEC teams ranked in the latest AP Top 25. Alabama’s not out of it either, but Kalen DeBoer’s team is fading quickly.
Where’s the love for unbeaten Iowa State?
I love a story like the Cyclones, and who wouldn’t? But projecting multiple Big 12 teams in the playoff is a stretch right now given how many teams in the conference have multiple losses and the lack of overall quality outside of unbeatens Iowa State and BYU. The Cyclones have a tougher schedule moving forward, which is mainly why the Cougars are picked to win the conference at this point and not Matt Campbell’s team. Iowa State plays Texas Tech, at Kansas, Cincinnati, at Utah and Kansas State in November — all teams likely heading to bowl games, except the Jayhawks. Of course, the winner of the conference championship game gets in anyway.
