It’s pretty crazy to see the calendar gearing up to flip to November. Unlike the season’s opening month, where we — along with the rest of the public — took our lumps from the sportsbooks, October has been a strong rebound for our little betting window on the internet. Heading into the final slate for October, I’m sporting a 24-19 ATS record overall and an 11-4 ATS mark on my locks of the week. Of course, I may be jinxing myself in touting those marks, but it’s good to pat yourself on the back every once in a blue moon, right?
In any event, I’ll look to keep the positive momentum going as we rocket toward the final full slate of October, beginning, as always, with my five locks of the week.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 18-17
ATS: 48-56-3
ML: 64-43
All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.
Vikings at Rams
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The recent reports surrounding a possible trade of Cooper Kupp suggest that the Rams are gearing up to wave the white flag on the season. Meanwhile, on a short week, they are facing a highly motivated Vikings team that is looking to rebound after suffering its first loss of the season to its division rival Lions. That alone is a recipe for disaster for Los Angeles. As we look further at the matchup, this is a scenario where the Minnesota offense could thrive. The Rams are allowing 5.8 yards per play this season, which ranks 27th in the league. While this is a road matchup for the Vikings, Sam Darnold has fared well away from U.S. Bank Stadium this season, owning a 2-0 ATS record on the road.
Projected score: Vikings 27, Rams 20
The pick: Vikings -3.5
Falcons at Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Buccaneers were demoralized by injuries on Monday and now have to gear up on a short week for a pivotal divisional matchup with the Falcons. Losing both Chris Godwin (ankle) and Mike Evans (hamstring) drastically lowers the ceiling of what Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense can do. Couple their absence with the fact that they’ve struggled as a favorite against good teams (1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams .500 or better), and this is a strong play for the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Bucs pass defense has left little to be desired so far this season, allowing 254 yards through the air per game (29th in the NFL). With a matchup like that, this is a great spot to ladder Drake London’s receiving yards total as well, particularly with some good value at DraftKings. The Bucs are allowing the sixth-most receiving yards to wideouts this year.
Projected score: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Falcons +2.5
Packers at Jaguars
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Jaguars impressed in their final game in London last week, but how much of that was them turning a corner and how much of it was their opponent? I think this is still a flawed team and the oddsmakers think so too making them a notable underdog at home. The Packers are a far superior team with Super Bowl aspirations and should clear this game by a touchdown, if not more. This season, the Jaguars are surrendering 273.9 passing yards per game (second-most in the NFL) and now have to slow down Jordan Love and the Packers passing attack? Doesn’t seem likely. Dating to last season, the Jags are 0-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Projected score: Packers 30, Jaguars 23
The pick: Packers -4.5
Titans at Lions
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Titans just traded away DeAndre Hopkins, officially signaling that they are focusing on a greater plan than simply trying to win games in 2024. Even with Hopkins, the Titans were averaging 4.3 yards per play this season, which is second worst in the NFL. Now, they get a Lions team that hasn’t been shy at running up the score in recent weeks, so the double-digit spread doesn’t scare me off too much here. Detroit is 9-1 ATS over its last 10 regular-season games and is riding a 4-0 ATS winning streak coming into this matchup.
Projected score: Lions 30, Titans 17
The pick: Lions -10.5
Bears at Commanders
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Jayden Daniels’s status for this game is still up in the air after suffering a rib injury early in the team’s Week 7 matchup against the Panthers, but it didn’t seem too serious. From an entertainment standpoint, I hope he plays so we see him square off against No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. That said, his status doesn’t impact how I feel about this matchup too much, as I have the Bears covering as road favorites. They have the rest advantage coming off of the Week 7 bye, and Matt Eberflus is 2-0 ATS with Chicago coming off the bye in his career.
Caleb Williams — who is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season — has also come on strong, throwing nine touchdowns and just three interceptions in his last four games. That ascent against a lackluster Washington secondary sets up another nice outing for the top pick. Oh, and did we mention that Chicago’s defense is allowing just 5 yards per play (third-best mark in the NFL) and holding opponents to a 43.7% touchdown rate in the red zone (fifth-best) this season? They have a very well-rounded team and should come out of the bye with another win.
Projected score: Bears 26, Commanders 23
The pick: Bears -2.5
Rest of the bunch
Eagles at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 27, Eagles 23
The pick: Bengals -2.5
Ravens at Browns
Projected score: Ravens 30, Browns 20
The pick: Ravens -9.5
Cardinals at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Cardinals 21
The pick: Dolphins -3.5
Jets at Patriots
Projected score: Jets 27, Patriots 17
The pick: Jets -7
Colts at Texans
Projected score: Texans 30, Colts 20
The pick: Texans -6
Saints at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 24, Saints 16
The pick: Chargers -7.5
Bills at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Bills 24
The pick: Seahawks +3
Panthers at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 30, Panthers 17
The pick: Broncos -8
Chiefs at Raiders
Projected score: Chiefs 28, Raiders 17
The pick: Chiefs -10
Cowboys at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Cowboys 23
The pick: Cowboys +4.5
Giants at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 26, Giants 17
The pick: Steelers -6
