What a difference two months has made for Brian Kelly and LSU. The season-opening failure against USC in Las Vegas is the only loss this season for the Tigers, who challenge fellow red-hot SEC foe Texas A&M this weekend in a matchup that determines first place in the conference. For two teams outside of the preseason top 10 who overcame rocky starts, this one’s ripe with league championship and College Football Playoff implications for the victor.
“It is going to be an opportunity for us to go out there and show we belong on this stage and have taken this program where we all thought we wanted it to go,” first-year Aggies coach Mike Elko said this week ahead of his team’s most vital game of the season up to this point.
Speaking of opportunities, unbeaten Navy gets its spotlight moment in Week 9 against Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have won six straight in the series, but this Navy team is different, fueled by dual-threat Blake Horvath at quarterback. He is responsible for 20 touchdowns this season and only has one turnover. He accounted for six scores during the Midshipmen’s victory over Memphis, one that opened eyes nationally and stamped Navy as a threat in the AAC.
MORE: Projected College Football Playoff bracket in Week 9
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College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Week 9
LSU (-115) at Texas A&M: The winner of this SEC showdown moves ahead in the league’s playoff pecking order and will be in sole possession of first place entering November. Texas A&M is one of three SEC teams included in this week’s playoff projection with LSU being one of the “first out” — unless the Tigers can win in College Station.
Iowa State (-135): The Cyclones, on a bye this week, remain in control of their postseason destiny with seven straight wins this season but were lucky to escape UCF’s upset bid last week. In comparison to BYU, our projected Big 12 champion, Iowa State has a tougher remaining schedule including a matchup with Kansas State in late November.
Tennessee (-170): If the Vols — on a bye this week — can get to 10 wins, the resume might be good enough to get in the playoff as one of the SEC’s at-large selections. However, the road trip to Georgia on Nov. 16 is treacherous, and Tennessee’s offense right now has questions. Dylan Sampson helped the Vols upend Alabama last week, a much-needed victory for Josh Heupel after losing at Arkansas two weeks prior.
Missouri (+400) at Alabama (-115): Two SEC squads on the outside looking in per this week’s playoff projection update, this one in Tuscaloosa is a must-win for both. The natives are restless at Alabama given the Crimson Tide’s fall from grace with losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee over their last three games. The Tigers came from behind to beat Auburn last week, the second time they’ve played with fire at home against SEC competition.
Kansas at Kansas State (+175): The Wildcats have to make sure they’re taking the game-by-game approach in the Big 12 since they’ll be able to determine a spot in the league’s title game or not if the victories continue. The regular-season finale at Iowa State is the biggest game of the year in the conference, especially if BYU keeps winning.
Illinois (+900) at Oregon: Four Big Ten teams were included in our latest projection projection, but the Fighting Illini were not one of them. That changes if Illinois goes on the road and upsets top-ranked Oregon. Bret Bielema’s squad is playing a physical brand of football this fall — with wins over Nebraska and Michigan already — but has not faced a team quite as athletic and fast as the Ducks.
Army (+1000): The unbeaten Black Knights are on a bye this week and hoping for Group of Five chaos if they can keep it up. Right now, Boise State and Army are the two Group of Five teams to watch, and Navy stiff-arms to the front of the pack if the Midshipmen upset Notre Dame. Army plays the Fighting Irish as well on Nov. 23.
Others in the mix: SMU (+250), UNLV (+600), Pittsburgh (+1100) and Navy (+1700) are four teams we’ll be following this week. One-loss SMU — one of four unbeatens in ACC play — travels to Duke, while UNLV hosts Boise State on Friday night. Pittsburgh hosts Syracuse on Thursday and Navy hopes to stay unblemished against Notre Dame in a vital matchup toward the Midshipmen’s playoff hopes.
Ole Miss (+190) and Tulane (+700) are still in the conversation, too. The Rebels host Georgia in a couple of weeks, and the best they can finish is 10-2, which would warrant inclusion in the at-large discussion. Tulane’s losses have come against Kansas State and Oklahoma, so the Green Wave are very much in play for a conference title in the AAC.
About the expanded CFP
The first College Football Playoff Rankings from the selection committee will be released on Nov. 5, then every Tuesday night through Dec. 3 leading up to Selection Sunday (Dec. 8). The top-ranked team in the first CFP Rankings has gone on to win the national championship only twice since 2014.
In the first season of the 12-team playoff format, the four highest-ranked conference champions will be seeded 1-4 and receive first-round byes in December. Remaining teams, including the fifth conference champion, will be seeded 5-12 based on the selection committee’s opinion.
First-round games on campus start Dec. 20 with CFP quarterfinals at bowl sites beginning Dec. 31. The semifinals at the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be played Jan. 9 and 10, respectively. The national championship is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
