The Eagles RB’s are a best bet against the Bucs and why the Dodgers are the pick to head to the NLCS

The Green Bay Packers have tormented me for nearly my entire life. This is a franchise that won the first Super Bowl and was one of the NFL‘s premier franchises during the Vince Lombardi era, but it was mostly a joke when I was very young. While I was too young to remember a whole lot from the time, my first memory of hating the Packers was when Don Majkowski threw a game-winning touchdown against the Bears after crossing the line of scrimmage. It should not have counted, but it did, and that day my Packers hate was born.

And it was terrible timing. Shortly after “The Majik Man,” Green Bay traded for some guy named Brett Favre, and he’d go on to torment me for 15 years. Finally, when Favre moved on, I foolishly believed the Packers might fall back to earth, but Favre was replaced by Aaron Rodgers, who has been even meaner to me than Favre ever was.

So you’ll have to excuse me if I’m not upset to hear that the Chicago Bears are the one franchise that Aaron Rodgers would never play for. I don’t want you here anyway, Aaron. Not because I think you suck or you’re washed up, but because I cherish the hatred (and begrudging respect) I hold for you in my heart, and I never want to have to wish you well.

I mean, unless you’re playing somebody else and I’ve bet on you. Speaking of bets, I have plenty for you to make tonight, but before we get to them, let’s catch up on our daily reading.

• The Cardinals have fired manager Mike Shildt.
• Aaron Boone has not been fired, but he’s let go of a lot of his staff.
• Spencer Rattler is an early case study of the NIL era in college sports.
• We ranked every college basketball team in the country. Here’s the top 68.

To the picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Buccaneers at Eagles, 8:20 p.m. | TV: Fox

The Pick: Miles Sanders Over 3.5 receptions (+115): I don’t like anything about the spread or total in this game, and that’s fine because we have a bit of a perfect storm brewing. You see, the Eagles do not run the football. Philadelphia has run the ball on only 36.9% of its plays through the first five weeks of the season, which ranks 23rd in the league. Overall, Eagles running backs have 69 carries this season, which is the fewest in the league. Nobody runs the ball against Tampa Bay, so I don’t anticipate the Eagles changing offensive philosophies today.

Instead, Philly will do what it’s been doing all season long: throwing short passes. Jalen Hurts is averaging only 7.55 air yards per attempt this season (that ranks 24th among qualified passers), and 50 of the 182 passes Hurts has thrown have been behind the line of scrimmage. Many of those passes have been to Miles Sanders, as he’s caught 16 passes through the first five games.

Jonathan Coachman is joined by Mike McClure, Matt Severance, Zack Cimini and Allan Bell to dish out Thursday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.  

As I said earlier, nobody tries to run on Tampa because its run defense is its strength on defense. Instead, they throw short passes, and most of those passes ago to running backs. Opponents have targeted running backs 42 times against Tampa, the most against any team in the league. All 42 have been completed. Expect the passing game to be how Philly continues to get Sanders involved in its offense tonight.

Key Trend: Tampa has allowed more completions to running backs than any other team in the league.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: If you’d like a more traditional play, SportsLine’s Emory Hunt has an ATS pick available tonight, and he’s 34-18-1 in his last 43 picks involving the Eagles.

💰The Picks

⚾ MLB

Dodgers at Giants, 9:07 p.m | TV: TBS

The Pick: Dodgers (+101) — You have to be ready for anything when it comes to playoff baseball, and today is a great example. I had a pick ready to go and was in the middle of writing it up when those dastardly Dodgers decided to change starting pitchers! Julio Urias had been slated to start, but now it’s Corey Knebel. The good news (for me) is that while this seems like a drastic change, it doesn’t change much. Corey Knebel isn’t going to pitch deep into the game. He’s a reliever who moonlights as an opener. He’s started four games this season and hasn’t pitched more than two innings in either one.

The Dodgers are sending Knebel out there so San Francisco can’t load the top of its lineup with righty hitters to attack Urias. Urias will follow Knebel after an inning or two, and things will return to normal, and normal in this series is two fabulous teams playing a coin-flip game.

I have genuinely enjoyed watching this series because these are two fantastic teams that should not have been forced to play this early in the playoffs if for no other reason than we should’ve had the possibility of seven games. They’re that evenly matched, and that’s why I’m taking the Dodgers. Yes, my numbers tell me there’s value to be found on them, but if it were the Giants at +101, I’d be taking them instead.

Key Trend: The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.

🏈 College Football

Georgia Southern at South Alabama, 7:30 p.m | TV: ESPNU

The Pick: Over 49.5 (-110) — I do not have much faith in either of these defenses. Georgia Southern comes into tonight’s game ranked 100th nationally in defensive success rate, 107th in points allowed per drive, and 119th in yards per play allowed. The Eagles have allowed 32.7 points per game, and haven’t held an opponent below 25 points, and have allowed an average of 4.3 touchdowns per game.

South Alabama’s numbers are much better, but the Jaguars have posted those numbers against a soft schedule. What concerns me is that in the last two weeks, the Jaguars have faced two potent rushing offenses, and they’ve been picked apart. Louisiana rushed for 225 yards on the Jags two weeks ago, averaging 6.8 yards per carry, and last week Texas State rushed for 212 yards. Georgia Southern’s offense is built on running the ball, and the Eagles rank 21st nationally in yards per carry. In other words, this is a game between two teams who aren’t great, but their strengths match up well with the other team’s weaknesses, which often leads to higher-scoring affairs.

Key Trend: The over is 15-7 in Georgia Southern’s last 22 games as a road dog.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is a blistering 88-59 this season, returning more than $1,500. In addition, Hartstein has an amazing 36-18 record on his last 54 picks involving Los Angeles, and he has a pick available for tonight’s Game Five.

 🏈 Thursday Night Football Same Game Parlay

Like I said earlier, I don’t like anything about the spread or total tonight, but I do have a couple other props I’m fond of, so why not put together a parlay? It pays +360.

• Tom Brady Over 2.5 TD (-130)
• Jalen Hurts Under 285.5 yards passing (-115)
• Mike Evans to score a TD (-112)
  
  

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