B1G Time: Ryan Day being rewarded for offseason changes as Ohio State nears return to Big Ten title game

Ryan Day had a lot of self-reflection to do following the 2023 season. Ohio State had not only lost its third straight to rival Michigan, but Day then had to watch the Wolverines go on to win the national title. Despite all the success he’d had during his time in Columbus, Ohio, moments like that will make you question everything. That’s precisely what Day did, and to his credit, he recognized the changes that had to be made and made them.

He’s being rewarded for all of it.

The Buckeyes crushed Indiana at Ohio Stadium on Saturday. Yes, they scored a touchdown in the final minutes, which felt like running it up, but it didn’t skew the scoreline overall. I’d argue the 23-point margin at the end of the game wasn’t an accurate reflection of the game itself — it felt like Ohio State won by 30 or more.

The defense controlled the game, but the primary takeaway from me was how Ohio State’s offense fared and how the decisions Day made following last season have paid off. Day made the decision to replace Kyle McCord with Will Howard. He gave up play-calling duties and brought in Chip Kelly, luring him away from a head coaching gig. It’s hard to argue with the results. Just look at how the 2024 Ohio State offense compares to what we saw in 2023.

Kelly deserves plenty of credit for his ability to put this offense in the right spot at the right time, as well as his ability to maneuver around an offensive line that’s been forced to play musical chairs every week as injury after injury is accrued. Still, for me, the biggest difference maker has been Howard.

I was openly skeptical about the decision to move on from McCord for Howard because I didn’t feel as if Ohio State’s shortcomings last season were McCord’s fault. He felt like a scapegoat to me, and I wasn’t sure if Howard was a significant improvement.

He has been. I don’t think Ohio State is 10-1 and a win over Michigan away from a rematch with Oregon if it still has McCord. One of Ohio State’s bigger problems last year was finishing drives in the red zone. While it experienced more of those problems against Indiana, it wasn’t because of Howard. Over the long run, his ability as a runner has opened up more avenues in that part of the field and made life easier for everyone (as does having Jeremiah Smith, but I digress).

The Buckeyes improving from 4.5 points per red zone possession last season to 5.32 this year is a huge step forward. That 4.50 mark ranked 49th nationally last season. This year’s mark ranks second (0.01 points behind Indiana). Coaches can spend hours studying film and figuring out ways to scheme guys open or take things away on defense, but sometimes football is just as simple as “touchdowns are better than field goals.”

While the red zone performance has been a big boost, it’s not the only area where Howard has improved. He’s been better than McCord was in every facet of the game. Howard’s arm isn’t as strong as McCord’s, and as a result, Ohio State’s been throwing shorter passes, but Howard’s decision-making, combined with Kelly’s ability to get guys open and create room to run, have led to a far more efficient and far more explosive Ohio State passing attack.

The result is an Ohio State team that might be the most complete team in the country. That wouldn’t have been the case if Ryan Day had decided to run it back offensively this season.

All that’s left to do now is beat Michigan. Do that, and everything else the Buckeyes strive for will be there for the taking.

About that late touchdown, though

As somebody who picked the under 52.5 in The Six Pack last week, I certainly didn’t appreciate it, even if I understood it. However, I wonder if I was the person who had the biggest problem with it. Considering all The Discourse coming out of the southeast about Indiana’s College Football Playoff case, I can’t help but believe some folks at the Big Ten offices in Rosemont, Illinois, didn’t appreciate Ohio State tacking on a touchdown at the end.

Regardless of how the game actually looked (Ohio State domination), a 16-point loss on Indiana’s resume looks far more palatable in the eyes of the selection committee than the 23-point loss might. This is not Ryan Day’s problem, nor should it be his concern, but for commissioner Tony Petitti and the Big Ten, who certainly want to get four Big Ten schools into the field, it probably caused some consternation.

The good news is Alabama and Ole Miss may have made it all a moot point with their losses.

Let’s not forget this late touchdown, either

If I’m being honest, I think Rutgers fans being angry with Greg Schiano about calling a timeout to ice Illinois’ kicker on the 58-yard field goal attempt (forgive the error in the tweet) that preceded Pat Bryant’s walk-off touchdown are conflating the result with the process. Plenty of coaches call a timeout in that spot.

If you’re going to be mad at Schiano, be mad at him for allowing his team to run single-coverage on Bryant in that spot. Illinois’ other receiver, Zackhari Franklin, was banged up earlier in the game and hadn’t seen the field in a while. Luke Altmyer had been force-feeding Bryant since the injury, so not doubling him in this situation feels like a much bigger mistake than calling the timeout.

Regardless, it’s an incredible result for Illinois, as this miracle win improved the Illini to 8-3 on the season and made Bret Bielema the first Illini coach to win at least eight games in two different seasons since Ron Turner did it in 1999 and 2001. While Illini fans no doubt appreciate it, I’m sure they wouldn’t mind more wins coming in less dramatic fashion.

The Illini have certainly made a habit out of pulling off miracles late in games.

It began last year and has carried into this season. So much so that Altmyer is responsible for four touchdowns in the fourth quarter in Big Ten games this season with the Illini down one score. Minnesota’s Max Brosmer has three, Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis has two and the rest of the league combined has nine.

Speaking of one-score games …

Big Ten Visual of the Week

There have been 29 one-score games in Big Ten conference play this season, and USC has been part of nearly a quarter of them (7). It’s easy to overlook how cruel this sport can be at times and how much luck can play a part in determining the outcome of a game and a season.

It’s no secret that the Big Ten is extremely top-heavy this year, and outside that top four, there are a lot of similar teams. One-score games and points off turnover margin are something I like to track when it comes to figuring out which teams that did well the prior season could regress in the next, and vice versa.

As of right now, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and UCLA are all tied with the most one-score wins (three), but what’s more telling is how many of their overall wins they account for. All three of UCLA’s wins have been by one score, while Michigan and Minnesota are at three of four and Illinois is at three of five.

On the other side of the ledger, USC’s five one-score losses are more than anybody else in the Big Ten, and they account for all of USC’s five losses. Meanwhile, Purdue is 0-8, but only three of those losses have been by one score. 

A well-placed net

Playoff Hopeful Week 13 Rooting Interests

This column is published before the selection committee releases their imaginary rankings for the week, but regardless of where each of these teams stand, it’s not difficult to figure out what each fan base should hope for.

Going with my gut

Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly.

All Big Ten college football betting odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game.

Michigan at Ohio State: A part of me looks at a 21-point spread in this game and thinks there’s simply no way on Earth I can pass up three touchdowns in this rivalry. Then there’s the other part of me that remembers watching Michigan all season, and it suddenly seems as though I can easily pass them up. And that’s what I’m going to do. Ohio State needs to win to get to Indianapolis, and you know the Buckeyes will take the chance to run up the score if they get the chance after how things went down the last three years. Ohio State -21

Minnesota at Wisconsin — Wisconsin -2
Nebraska at Iowa — Nebraska +5.5
Illinois at Northwestern — Illinois -7.5
Maryland at Penn State — Penn State -25
Notre Dame at USC — USC +7.5
Rutgers at Michigan State — Michigan State -1.5
Fresno State at UCLA — UCLA -9.5
Purdue at Indiana — Indiana -29.5
Washington at Oregon — Washington +19.5

Last Week: 4-3
Season: 62-52-1