The AFC East champion Buffalo Bills (10-3) likely saw their chance of finishing as the No. 1 seed in the conference disappear with their road loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 14. Buffalo is two games behind the AFC West title-winning Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) and now finds itself in a dogfight for the second seed with the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3), who have won seven of their last eight contests to take a two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) for first place in the AFC North.
Buffalo and Pittsburgh both take to the road for matchups against NFC powerhouses in Week 15, and their opponents are in a battle for the top seed in their conference. On Sunday, the Bills visit the Detroit Lions (12-1), who currently reside in the top spot and are just one game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings (11-2) in the NFC North, while the Steelers face the intrastate-rival Philadelphia Eagles (11-2), who are closing in on their second NFC East title in three seasons.
The Bills (4.54) currently own the tiebreaker with the Steelers (.408) based on strength of victory, but after their showdown with Detroit, they conclude the regular season with games against the New England Patriots (two) and New York Jets, both of whom enter Week 15 with 3-10 records. Pittsburgh has a much tougher road, as it follows the matchup versus Philadelphia with tussles against Baltimore, Kansas City and the division-rival Cincinnati Bengals (5-8).
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Buffalo is on track to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a 59.8% chance. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says the Steelers get the spot just 14.5% of the time.
The Bills will remain heavy favorites with three of the four potential outcomes of the two titanic Week 15 contests, while Pittsburgh can only turn the tables with a victory at Philadelphia and a loss by Buffalo. Josh Allen and company currently have a 17.1% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the model, and improve their outlook with a win against the Lions but would see it dip to 13.4% with a loss and a triumph by the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is at 4.8% to capture the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the moment, and the model says its prospects increase most (7.7%) with a win against the Eagles and a loss by the Bills. A victory on Sunday also would secure a playoff berth for the Steelers.
|
BUFFALO |
NO. 2 SEED |
|
|
Current |
59.8% |
17.1% |
|
Bills win, Steelers win |
52.5% |
18.7% |
|
Bills loss, Steelers loss |
68.6% |
16.1% |
|
Bills loss, Steelers win |
32.2% |
13.4% |
|
Bills win, Steelers loss |
56.8% |
18.9% |
|
PITTSBURGH |
NO. 2 SEED |
SUPER BOWL |
|
Current |
14.5% |
4.8% |
|
Steelers win, Bills win |
21.7% |
5.7% |
|
Steelers loss, Bills loss |
11.1% |
4.8% |
|
Steelers win, Bills loss |
51.2% |
7.7% |
|
Steelers loss, Bills win |
6.7% |
4.7% |
The model also believes the Buffalo-Detroit showdown on Sunday will be a preview of Super Bowl LIX, as it says the Bills facing the Lions is the most likely matchup to take place at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans at 11.36%.
Detroit enters Week 15 with a 78.8% chance to finish with the top seed in the NFC, while Philadelphia’s prospects are at 15.2%. According to the model, the only outcome that reduces the Lions’ prospects is a loss to Buffalo and a victory by the Eagles. In that event, the team finishes atop the conference in just 29% of the simulations.
The model says Philadelphia’s best outlook for the No. 1 seed in the conference is with a win over Pittsburgh and a Detroit defeat, as it would be at 65.8% with that scenario. Currently, the Lions’ chances for their first Super Bowl championship are at 19.8%, while Philadelphia’s are 11.2%. Neither team’s prospects drastically change regardless of Sunday’s results.
|
DETROIT |
NO. 1 SEED |
SUPER BOWL |
|
Current |
78.8% |
19.8% |
|
Lions win, Eagles win |
85.3% |
20.7% |
|
Lions loss, Eagles loss |
78.4% |
20.2% |
|
Lions loss, Eagles win |
29% |
15.1% |
|
Lions win, Eagles loss |
90.3% |
21.7% |
|
PHILADELPHIA |
NO. 1 SEED |
SUPER BOWL |
|
Current |
15.2% |
11.2% |
|
Eagles win, Lions win |
11% |
10.7% |
|
Eagles loss, Lions loss |
9.4% |
10.4% |
|
Eagles win, Lions loss |
65.8% |
15.1% |
|
Eagles loss, Lions win |
2.5% |
10% |
Should Detroit and Philadelphia both lose on Sunday, Minnesota would make it a three-team race for the top seed in the NFC with a victory over the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo has won each of its last four meetings with the Lions, including the last two in Detroit. In Week 12 of the 2022 season, Allen threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as the Bills pulled out a 28-25 victory.
Since dropping a 20-14 decision in 1965, Philadelphia has won 10 consecutive home encounters with the Steelers. The clubs also last met in 2022, when the Jalen Hurts threw four TD passes – including three to A.J. Brown – as the Eagles cruised to a 35-13 triumph in the City of Brotherly Love in Week 8.
The model is calling for the Buffalo-Detroit and Pittsburgh-Philadelphia contests both to be close, but neither is a game with an A-grade pick based on simulations for the 15th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 15 NFL picks at SportsLine.
