We are mere days away from when Kris Kringle jumps into his sleigh, gets Rudolph in gear and flies across the globe to deliver gifts for the Christmas holiday. Hopefully, the big man with the white beard has installed some streaming capabilities to that sleigh because the NFL is ramping up. This season, the league has an array of games leading up to the holiday, which includes a doubleheader on Christmas Day.
While this is Santa’s busy season, it’s also crunch time across the NFL, with playoff spots being solidified. Already, four teams in the AFC have stamped their tickets, and three are locked in over in the NFC. Those spots are filling up fast, but there is still a glimmer of hope for some teams that have already been cast aside by the public, albeit not mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Those are the clubs that we’ll focus on here because we got a peak at their Christmas list. All of them have the same thing atop their wish lists: a playoff berth. Below, we’ll look at the teams .500 or below that are still technically in contention for a playoff spot and highlight the Christmas miracle they’ll need to get into the postseason.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
- Need to win out
- Need Chargers to go 1-2 down stretch
*wild-card spot only option
Indy’s path to an AFC South title was closed off last week, with the Houston Texans clinching the division following their win and the Colts’ loss to Denver. With that avenue closed, the Colts now need to sneak in as a wild-card club. At 6-8, they come into Week 16 two games behind the Los Angeles Chargers for the No. 7 seed. If Indy wins out and the Chargers go 1-2 down the stretch, they’d both finish the season at 9-8. In that scenario, Indy would win the tiebreaker, thanks to what would be a superior conference record (7-5 vs. 6-6). The Colts also hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Dolphins, who are next on this list.
Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Need to win out
- Need Colts to go 2-1 down stretch
- Need Chargers to go 1-2 down stretch (OR) Broncos to go 0-3 down stretch
*wild-card spot only option
Similar to Indy, any path forward to the playoffs for the Dolphins includes them winning their final three games. This week, they wrap up their final game at home against the 49ers before a two-game road trip to end the season against the Browns in Cleveland (Week 17) and then the Jets in New York (Week 18). Those are must-win games in order to keep the playoff dream alive. After that, the South Florida Sun Sentinel relays that the Colts must lose at least one more game. Then, the Chargers need to drop two or their final three games, or the Broncos lose out down the stretch.
Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
- Need to win out
- Need Colts and Dolphins to go 2-1 down stretch
- Need Broncos or Chargers to go 0-3 down stretch
*wild-card spot only option
Despite having the same records as both the Colts and Dolphins, Cincinnati’s path is made much more difficult due to its poor conference record (3-6), which is one of the tiebreakers. Like the teams above them, the Bengals must win out to get to 9-8 on the season. They’d need to couple that with both the Colts and Dolphins losing at least one more game, which would see Cincy leapfrog them in the standings. Then, the Bengals would need either the Broncos or Chargers to lose out (h/t Cincinnati.com).
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
- Need to win out
- Need Buccaneers to go 2-1 down stretch (to win NFC South)
- Need Commanders and Seahawks to go 1-2 down stretch (for wild-card spot)
Out of all these teams that we’re discussing, the Falcons have the easiest path, and using the term “Christmas miracle” is admittedly a stretch in the scenario, but they met the criteria to be on this list. Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers, so if the Falcons win out and Tampa Bay loses one game down the stretch, Kirk Cousins and Co. would win the NFC South. Even if they can’t get atop the division, there’s still a path for Atlanta as a wild-card entry. For that, they’d need to win out and have both the Commanders and Seahawks go no better than 1-2 over the final three weeks.
Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
- Need to win out
- Need Rams and Seahawks to go 1-2 down stretch (to win NFC West)
- Need Commanders to go 0-3 down stretch, Seahawks to go 1-2 down stretch, Falcons to go 2-1 down stretch (for wild-card spot)
Similar to Atlanta, Arizona has a path to the playoffs both as a division winner and a wild-card team. At 7-7, they are a game behind both the Rams and Seahawks in the loss column for first place, and they currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Los Angeles (they play again in Week 17). If Arizona wins out and both the Rams and Seahawks finish the year no better than 1-2, the Cards are NFC West champions. As for the wild-card avenue, Arizona would again need to win out. From there, they’d need the Commanders to lose out, the Seahawks to finish no better than 1-2, and the Falcons to finish no better than 2-1.
San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
- Need to win out
- Need Cardinals to lose or tie vs. Panthers (Week 16) and then beat the Rams (Week 17)
- Need Rams to lose to Jets (Week 16) and Cardinals (Week 17)
- Need Seahawks to lose to Vikings (Week 16) and Bears (Week 17)
- Need Rams and Seahawks to tie in Week 18 matchup
The 49ers have been snakebitten all season, which has the defending NFC champions on the brink of elimination from playoff contention. But there’s still a chance — albeit slim — to get into the playoffs as the NFC West winner. AZ Sports highlights the one scenario above where the Niners can thread the needle down the stretch to win the division.
Yes, we’re at the stage where we need ties. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? Not during the holiday season!
Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
- Need to win out
- Need Commanders to go 0-3 down stretch
- Need Seahawks and Falcons to go 1-2 down stretch
- Need Cardinals to go 2-1 down stretch
*wild-card spot only option
The NFC East is out of reach for the Cowboys, but they are still technically alive as a wild-card entry in the NFC. If they win out to get to 9-8 and the Commanders (currently the No. 7 seed) lose out, they’d finish with the same record, and Dallas would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Then, the Seahawks and Falcons (who own the head-to-head tiebreaker) would each need to go 1-2 over the final three weeks, while the Cardinals can’t finish any better than 2-1. In this scenario, Dallas (7-5) would edge out Arizona (5-7) and Seattle (5-7) due to their superior conference record.
New Orleans Saints (5-9)
- Need to win out
- Need Buccaneers and Falcons to go 0-3 down stretch (to win NFC South)
*wild-card spot not option
Remarkably, New Orleans is still technically alive as we enter Week 16, despite being four games under .500. However, that’s more of an indictment on the NFC South at large. A wild-card path is nonexistent for the Saints, but there’s a slim chance they could end up the NFC South champions. For that, they’d need to win out and have both the Buccaneers and Falcons lose out.
