It’s Christmas, and while I’m not Santa Claus, that will not stop me from making a list and checking it twice, all to find out who’s naughty or nice.
Eight teams remain in the College Football Playoff, and none are perfect. As far as fans are concerned, that’s a good thing. It leads to more uncertainty about how the final three rounds will play out, which is what every college football fan should want.
So think of this naughty and nice list as a way of describing why teams could win it all or what could cause them to come up short in their goal of winning the national championship.
1. Oregon
Nice: Balanced offense
Oregon is good at everything and can beat you in multiple ways. It runs the ball on 51.5% of its plays, which ranks 65th nationally but only sixth among the eight remaining teams (a reminder to run the dang ball). What matters more than how often the Ducks run is how effective they are at it. The offense ranks ninth nationally in EPA per dropback and 17th in EPA per rush. Even more impressive, they’re seventh in passing success rate and fourth in rushing success rate. As a whole, this offense isn’t super explosive, but it’s just so good at staying ahead of schedule and doing it on the ground and in the air.
Naughty: The front seven
Listen, Oregon’s front seven, compared to almost every other team in the country, is phenomenal. However, compared to some of its playoff brethren, this isn’t an elite unit. While the overall numbers are outstanding, there are legitimate concerns. On the season, Oregon’s defense is allowing only 1.56 points per possession (19th nationally) with a success rate of 62.6% (15th). The problem is those numbers fall off a cliff in Oregon’s three games against playoff competition. The Ducks have already played Boise State, Ohio State and Penn State, and in those games, they allowed 2.68 points per drive and had a success rate of 55.8%. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 192 yards against this defense. Ohio State went for 467 yards, which was six fewer than it had against Tennessee in the first round. Penn State rushed for 292 yards and 8.34 yards per attempt. Further complicating matters, Oregon’s pressure-to-blitz ratio — can you get pressure without blitzing, essentially — of 1.54 ranks ninth nationally, but in those same three games, it plummeted to 0.92.
2. Georgia
Nice: Getting home with four
The Bulldogs have been a frustrating team all season because it rarely feels like they’re playing at their best level. But the one thing they’ve been consistently good at this season is generating a pass rush without bringing extra rushers. Georgia’s defense has a 35.7% pressure rate and an 8.2% sack rate (both 25th), but while those aren’t elite numbers, their pressure-to-blitz ratio of 1.48 ranks ninth nationally and third among remaining CFP teams. The problem is when Georgia doesn’t get home. The -0.05 EPA per dropback allowed on defense ranks 56th.
Naughty: Lack of big plays
The Georgia offense has dealt with myriad injuries this year, which has limited what they’re able to do offensively, and the latest injury to QB Carson Beck will not help. So, chances are the least explosive offense remaining in the field won’t improve. Georgia ranks 73rd in overall explosive play rate (12.3%) and an astounding 114th in explosive rush rate (7.8%). The Dawgs do rank 46th in passing explosiveness (16.0%), but will that improve with Gunner Stockton?
3. Boise State
Nice: Ashton Jeanty
Listen, no team gets this far as the byproduct of one player, but the playoff team that comes closest is Boise State. And I don’t mean that as a diss on the Broncos. I mean it as a compliment to Ashton Jeanty, who finished second in Heisman Trophy voting and has been a revelation all season long. Jeanty has rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns this year, and that includes 192 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon. If the Broncos make a Cinderella run, it’ll be because Jeanty is pulling that carriage.
Naughty: Tackling
Boise State’s overall defensive numbers aren’t bad. The Broncos rank 38th in points per possession (1.78) and 30th in success rate (61.3%) but are only 77th in explosive play rate allowed (12.19%). How is that possible? Well, they miss a lot of tackles. According to TruMedia, the Broncos have a missed tackle rate of 20%, which ranks 134th in the country. That’s dead last.
4. Arizona State
Nice: Winning close games
While most coaches would prefer winning games comfortably, there’s value in being battle-tested. Winning close games gives teams confidence late when the pressure is on, and no team in the country did a better job of that than Arizona State. The Sun Devils were 6-1 in one-score games this season, and those six wins trailed only the seven Syracuse picked up. For comparison’s sake, the Texas team the Sun Devils will face this year played only two one-score games. If the Sun Devils keep it close going into the fourth quarter, their experience managing similar situations could prove crucial.
Naughty: Red-zone defense
All that said, it’ll be hard to keep it close if the Sun Devils don’t tighten up in the red zone! Now, the good news is that this defense does a decent job of stopping drives before they get there, but when they do, success is fleeting. The 4.58 points allowed per red zone possession ranks 101st nationally, but what’s odd is that this defense does well in goal-to-go situations. Seriously, teams only score touchdowns 63.6% of the time when they have goal-to-go against the Sun Devils, which is the 18th lowest rate in the country. If only they could figure out what to do between the 20 and 10-yard lines!
5. Texas
Nice: Defensive line
I’ve caught a lot of sideways glares from Georgia fans for saying it, but Texas is the new Georgia when it comes to defensive linemen. Last year’s Longhorns line featured Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, and I was worried about how the Longhorns would replace them heading into the SEC. Well, this year’s line might be better. Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins have been phenomenal on the interior, while Trey Moore and Barryn Sorrell have handled the edge. Sprinkle in some Colin Simmons, Jermayne Lole, Ethan Burke and Bill Norton, and you have a deep, talented rotation up front. It’s an elite defense, and it all starts up front for the Longhorns.
Naughty: Ball security
Considering how important turnovers are in the sport, it’s surprising to see the Longhorns perform so well this year despite their problems taking care of the ball. Texas’ turnover rate of 13.1% on offense ranks 100th nationally, and their 23 total turnovers on offense rank 124th. The reason it hasn’t cratered their season is the Texas defense bails the offense out repeatedly. Texas’ point-off turnover margin per game is 2.71, which ranks 33rd nationally.
6. Penn State
Nice: First-down offense
Overall, Penn State’s offense is more very good than great, and a big reason why is the lack of big-time playmakers at the receiver position. Penn State overcomes this by being absolutely incredible on first down. The Nittany Lions rank first nationally in success rate on first down (51.4%) and EPA per snap (0.24). The 7.4 yards per play (5th) they pick up on first down keeps this offense on schedule and keeps them from being in third-and-long spots, which is where the lack of playmakers at WR would hurt most.
Naughty: Defensive penalties
As a whole, the Penn State defense ranks 10th in success rate (63.0%) and 9th in points allowed per drive (1.43), but imagine how good they’d be if they didn’t commit so many penalties! The Nittany Lions defense has been called for 36 penalties this season, ranking 116th. Those penalties have cost them 8.63 yards per (90th) and -27.03 in EPA (115th).
7. Notre Dame
Nice: Winning the turnover battle
Turnovers are a great thing to force on defense, but it’s even better when the offense helps out and turns them into points (or if the defense does so itself). In that aspect, it’s a true team effort by the Fighting Irish. Notre Dame’s +16 turnover margin ranks second nationally, but their points off turnover margin per game is +7.69. To put that in perspective, only one other team in the country is at +7 or higher (Colorado), and only nine teams are above 5.0. None of those teams remain in the CFP. Arizona State is the closest to Notre Dame at +3.54, which ranks 18th.
Naughty: Third-and-long offense
If you’ve paid attention to Notre Dame, this won’t come as a surprise. This is very much a rushing offense with a quarterback in Riley Leonard who is far more effective as a rusher than he is a dropback passer. When in situations where Leonard needs to drop back to pass and defenses know it, the Irish struggle mightily. Notre Dame’s 15.2% conversion rate on third-and-long (7 yards or more) ranks 129th nationally. The good news? Only 46.48% of Notre Dame’s third downs qualify as long, but while that ranks 52nd nationally, it ranks seventh of the eight teams remaining in the field.
8. Ohio State
Nice: Second-half adjustments
If you’re going to get to Ohio State, you better do it early, because if you let Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles tinker at halftime, you’re screwed. Ohio State’s point margin per game in the second half this season is 13.00, which ranks third nationally and is the best of our remaining playoff teams. And that number is skewed a bit because it’s 10.00 in the third quarter alone (first nationally). By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, the Buckeyes have usually called off the dogs.
Naughty: Special teams
Ohio State fans might not realize it because it has improved overall, but while Ohio State’s special teams have been better, they have not been good. After ranking 112th last season in special teams EPA, the Buckeyes have climbed all the way up to 100th this year. But, hey, it’s not like special teams miscues have cost this team in the postseason before!
