Is a veteran reliever the key to the still gummed-up market for free-agent infielders? That may be the case, peculiar as it sounds. Let us explain.
The Chicago Cubs have reportedly agreed to acquire high-leverage bullpenner Ryan Pressly from the Houston Astros in exchange for right-hander Juan Bello. The Astros are including $5.5 million cash in the deal to defray part of Pressly’s $14 million commitment for 2025, the final year of his contract. The question in Houston right about now is whether the club will put those savings back into the roster.
That, tidily enough, brings us to Astros lifer Alex Bregman, who remains on the free-agent market. Bregman is of interest to the Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, and perhaps Toronto Blue Jays. However, it’s the incumbent Astros who are of increasing note on the Bregman front. Bregman seemed to be bound elsewhere after turning down a reported $156 million extension offer from Houston. A parting seemed even more likely after the Astros signed Christian Walker to man first base and then acquired Isaac Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker trade with Chicago. That gave Houston a full infield and seemed to mark an end to Bregman’s time in Houston. Perhaps, though, things have changed.
On Saturday, prior to news of the Pressly trade (and likely before the agreement was finalized), Astros general manager Dana Brown said this of a possible Bregman reunion, which as noted not so long ago seemed impossible:
“I would say [the door is] cracked. The fact that he’s still available, it just makes it interesting. Like ‘man, this guy is such a good player, he’s done so many wonderful things here.’ We’ll stick with the cracked door and see where our conversations lead.”
And what of the crowded infield situation in Houston? Franchise legend Jose Altuve is here to help. Here’s this from the The Athletic:
“Altuve is willing to do anything to keep Bregman, even leave his middle-infield position. The face of Houston’s franchise acknowledged on Saturday he is willing to move off of second base — and maybe into the outfield — to accommodate a reunion with Bregman.”
Altuve would be poised to shift to left field, which would allow Paredes to play second base and Bregman to be installed back at third base. At this point and given the late hour of the offseason, a Bregman return to Houston seems like the most likely outcome. That, then, brings us to Nolan Arenado.
The St. Louis Cardinals are in the midst of a self-described “reset,” in which they’re focused on building out the neglected player-development apparatus in the minors and creating role space for younger players in the majors. Already they’ve permitted Paul Goldschmidt to depart via free agency, and they’re declined club options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Keynan Middleton. Of their veterans with no-trade clauses – Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Miles Mikolas, and Arenado – only Arenado has expressed a willingness to be dealt at this time. Earlier in the offseason, the Cardinals and Astros were in agreement on a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to Houston, but he blocked it via that full no-trade provision in his contract.
So where does that leave Arenado? If Bregman does indeed return to Houston, then that creates an opportunity in Boston. Arenado is reportedly willing to approve a deal to the Red Sox, and the Red Sox for their part are reported to prefer a shorter commitment than the one Bregman will likely command. Arenado, meantime, is under contract through 2027, which will probably be about half as long as whatever contract Bregman eventually signs. On the money front, Arenado is owed $74 million over those three seasons. However, his former team the Colorado Rockies are on the hook for $10 million of that tally, and the Cardinals in their previous talks with the Astros were reportedly willing to pay down $15-20 million of what Arenado is owed.
On another level, Arenado’s pull-heavy approach at the plate would be a good theoretical fit for Fenway and the Green Monster and might help him stave off what appears to be offensive decline. Arenado remains a standout fielder at third base and for Boston would constitute a significant defensive upgrade over Rafael Devers. Devers through his agent scoffed at the idea of a shift across the diamond to first base, and initially the Red Sox pushed back against reports that they were pondering such a discussion. However, here’s what manager Alex Cora said about the Devers situation at Fenway Fest earlier in January (via MassLive):
“If we have to have conversations about positions, we’ll have those conversations. I know there’s a lot of talk about third basemen or second basemen. Before we get to that point, we’ll talk to Raffy. That’s the way it is. That’s the way I operate. I’ve seen situations around the league where they’re very late on that front. The player doesn’t like it and takes it personal. But I think we’ll do it the right way. But right now, there’s no conversations. We haven’t talked to Raffy about moving positions. Raffy Devers is our third baseman.”
There are different ways to parse this, but Cora’s words certainly seem to imply a willingness to talk to Devers about a position change should external circumstances demand. There was talk that Bregman would man second for Boston, but that’s likely not a possibility for Arenado, which would necessitate a glove-for-mitt change for Devers. The Red Sox are already the best theoretical fit for Arenado given the complications of trading him out of St. Louis, and that’s especially the case if Bregman goes back to Houston.
A final, albeit less direct consequence of the above has to do with Pete Alonso. The free-agent slugger has encountered a soft market thus far, which has put a return to the New York Mets, where he’s spent his entire professional career to date, back in play. To be sure, the two sides do not seem particularly close to an agreement, but they’re talking. As well, an Alonso-Mets reunion seems more possible now than it has in a long time. What might make it more possible? The two names above finally finding landing spots.
The Mets have been linked to Bregman this winter, albeit not as strongly as the leading contenders. A signing of Bregman would allow the Mets to move Mark Vientos off third base, where he’s quite stretched defensively, and installed at first base. A Mets trade for Arenado, which, again, doesn’t seem likely, would achieve the same – i.e., a move for Vientos and a new presence at third base. Both of those hypotheticals likely eliminate the possibility of an Alonso return, which in turn means the exits of Bregman and Arenado from their respective markets make an Alonso return to Queens perhaps more likely. Sure, the Mets could go ahead and shift Vientos to first and see if Brett Baty can finally level up with the bat and pin down the hot corner, but that’s a risky proposition for a team that’s heavily invested in a deep playoff run after inking Juan Soto.
This late in the winter, the standing remnants of the free-agent and trade markets can be likened to an eight-beers-deep match of Jenga. The removal of even the most innocuous seeming piece – we’ll call that piece “Ryan Pressly” – can reverberate through the entire structure. That might just be the case here insofar as names like Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, and Pete Alonso are concerned. As always, all hail the load-bearing reliever.
