The 11 programs that tasted the College Football Playoff but came up short in 2024 are already yearning for a return trip. For some — such as Oregon and Georgia — merely getting to the CFP won’t be enough to satisfy championship-thirsty fan bases.
Both the Ducks and the Bulldogs met quick exits in the quarterfinals after they earned first-round byes as conference champions. Oregon ran into a buzzsaw in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State, and Georgia struggled in a Sugar Bowl loss to Notre Dame.
Other big-name programs, such as Clemson and Tennessee, will also be yearning for more playoff success after one-game stays in the bracket. Everyone will look to replicate Ohio State’s run this season after the Buckeyes handled a challenging bracket draw with impressive strength in downing Tennessee, Oregon, Texas and Notre Dame on the way to the title.
As for the 11 CFP teams that didn’t hoist the trophy, here’s a ranking of the teams most likely to win the CFP National Championship next season.
11. Boise State
Boise State is a perennial winner and capable of returning to the CFP in 2025. But 2024 showed the gap between the Broncos and the true title contenders in the bracket. While they stayed competitive with Penn State into the second half of a quarterfinal loss, the talent disparity was evident. Unofurtunately, it’s hard to envision the Broncos improving after losing star running back Ashton Jeanty.
10. Indiana
A tougher 2025 schedule will be among the top hindrances to Indiana’s hopes of building on a blockbuster debut for coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers host Illinois and travel to both Oregon and Penn State. A home date with Wisconsin and a road trip to Iowa are also part of a tougher draw than the favorable slate the Hoosiers enjoyed in 2024. With quarterback Kurtis Rourke gone, winning 8-9 games may be a more realistic ambition for IU in 2025.
9. SMU
Consecutive 11-win seasons are evidence of SMU’s positive trajectory under coach Rhett Lashlee, and the return of quarterback Kevin Jennings will help ensure the Mustangs are back in the ACC title conversation. But a 38-10 loss at Penn State in the CFP’s first round revealed a steep climb to national title contender status for the Mustangs.
8. Arizona State
Arizona State must replace star running back Cam Skattebo, who helped the Sun Devils push Texas to the brink in a CFP semifinal game. That will likely mean more reliance on quarterback Sam Leavitt as he looks to build on a breakout redshirt freshman season. With Leavitt around, the Sun Devils should be Big 12 contenders again. However, getting into the national title conversation is going to require another level-up in talent from coach Kenny Dillingham’s rising program.
7. Tennessee
The retention of coveted defensive coordinator Tim Banks and the potential for improvement in quarterback Nico Iamaleava will give Tennessee a shot at returning to the CFP. But it’s hard to see how the Volunteers will be demonstrably better in 2025 after losing stars like running back Dylan Sampson and defensive end James Pearce Jr. to the NFL Draft. Of course, a more favorable draw could make all the difference for the Vols, who were sent to an execution at Ohio State in the first round.
6. Clemson
Clemson has slipped from its peak under coach Dabo Swinney, but the Tigers boast some interesting ingredients in 2025. With a veteran quarterback in Cade Klubnik, a rockstar defensive coordinator hire in Tom Allen from Penn State and a few transfers (yes, really!) in the mix, Clemson could be a threat in the CFP. If nothing else, a defense stocked with talent led by Allen should be among the nation’s best. Remember, Swinney does have two rings.
5. Notre Dame
Notre Dame must replace quarterback Riley Leonard and defensive coordinator Al Golden. But the Fighting Irish continue stacking quality recruiting classes under coach Marcus Freeman and are expected to return an elite running back tandem in Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. It will take another good coaching job from Freeman to take a team with a first-year starting quarterback and significant defensive attrition back to the championship game.
4. Oregon
One big difference between Oregon in 2025 and Lanning’s first three teams will be the absence of a proven veteran at quarterback with UCLA transfer Dante Moore expected to take over. But if the Ducks are going to contend for a national title, Moore will have to be significantly better for Oregon than he was as a freshman for the Bruins in 2023.
3. Georgia
After going 42-2 from 2021-23, Georgia’s dominance waned in 2024, and there’s not just one thing to pin it on. The offense dealt with crippling turnover woes and inconsistent receiver play, while the defense didn’t impose its will at the line scrimmage like it had in previous years. Given how much talent the Bulldogs have amassed, they’ll have a chance. But coach Kirby Smart has a lot to clean up if UGA is going retake its place atop college football.
2. Penn State
There’s only one real question with Penn State, but it’s a big one: Who is Drew Allar going to throw the football to in 2025? If the Nittany Lions can answer that, they will absolutely be national title contenders. Poaching defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from Ohio State and retaining several draft-eligible stars shows this program is serious about winning a championship.
1. Texas
It’s Arch Manning’s time to shine, as the top-ranked quarterback prospect from the Class of 2023 will take over at QB for the Longhorns in 2025. Texas is replacing four of five offensive line starters and its two leading pass-catchers. But coach Steve Sarkisian has recruited strongly enough to withstand those losses and build on back-to-back College Football Playoff semifinal appearances. Manning’s mobility raises the team’s ceiling to true national title contenders.
