After many weeks of banger matchups, things settle down in Week 8, which is without a single ranked matchup on the schedule. But sometimes the quietest-looking Satrudays are the sneakiest. Oddly enough, though, there are a handful of matchups on the list featuring ranked underdogs against unranked opponents.
Each week, potential upsets are picked based on favorable matchups, context (i.e. location, rivalries, look-ahead games) or just good ol’ fashion gut feel. For maximum effect, a spread of at least three points is required for consideration – the bigger, the better.
Week 7 picks were right on the money with Oklahoma State beating Texas and UTEP topping Louisiana Tech; plus, Texas State and Vanderbilt covered. If not for some late heroics in those those games, there could have been two more upsets.
Important disclaimer: “upset” is defined first and foremost by the odds, not rankings.
LSU at No. 12 Ole Miss
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Oxford, Mississippi
Latest Odds: Ole Miss Rebels -9
Lest anyone forgets, Ed Orgeron is the greatest interim coach in the history of college football. OK — that might be an exaggeration, but Coach O does have a 12-4 record as an interim at USC and LSU. However you want to dissect his tenure with the Tigers — Orgeron was fired last Sunday despite beating Florida at home, but will coach the remainder of the season — he seems to do his best when his back is against the wall. This situation is a little different, but the Tigers are playing with nothing to lose and showed what they could accomplish against the Gators. Ole Miss looked shaky against Tennessee and still has significant defensive issues – can LSU take advantage? ATS: LSU, SU: Ole Miss
No. 8 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Ames, Iowa
Latest Odds: Iowa State Cyclones -7
Can a team be both deeply overrated and deeply underrated at the same time? That’s what it feels like seeing Oklahoma State as the No. 8 team as a touchdown underdog at Iowa State. The Cowboys beat three consecutive ranked teams to reach the AP top 10, including the same Baylor squad that beat Iowa State. Running back Jaylen Warren has emerged as one of the best in the Big 12 to complement an elite defense. Iowa State’s defense is elite as well, but the offense has been equally a slog despite having key production back. Oklahoma State has found ways to win ugly games all year. ISU has consistently struggled in those spots. ATS: Oklahoma State, SU: Oklahoma State
Wisconsin at No. 25 Purdue
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET | Where: West Lafayette, Indiana
Latest Odds: Wisconsin Badgers -3
Purdue entered the rankings for the first time since 2007, snapping the longest unranked streak in college football among Power Five teams. Still, it wasn’t enough for the Boilermakers to earn some respect from bookmakers. At 4-2, Purdue sits as a field goal underdog to 3-3 Wisconsin despite pulling off its ninth upset over a No. 2 in program history the week before (24-7 over Iowa). Purdue’s defense notched four interceptions against QB Spencer Petras and Wisconsin starter Graham Mertz has been even worse with two touchdowns to seven interceptions in six games. Yes, Wisconsin has one of the best defenses in college football, but wide receiver David Bell should still be considered a cheat code after what he did against Iowa. ATS: Purdue, SU: Purdue
No. 22 San Diego State at Air Force
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Colorado Springs, Colorado
Latest Odds: Air Force Falcons -3.5
The Aztecs needed double-overtime to beat defending MWC champs San Jose State, but they’re 6-0 all the same with a win against Utah that looks better every week. Air Force has back-to-back impressive wins against Boise State and Wyoming, but SDSU still boasts the sixth-most efficient defense in college football, according to SP+. Coach Brady Hoke’s signature defensive line unit should be prepared to deal with Air Force’s option attack. ATS: San Diego State, SU: San Diego State
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 8, and which top-10 team will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,700 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.
