It’s not often we get to bet on Aaron Rodgers as a heavy underdog, plus other top picks for Thursday

The strike zone is ruining baseball. Not the enforcement of it, or the size of it, but its appearance on baseball broadcasts. These days, every broadcast has the strike zone overlay over home plate. It’s one of those advancements in technology that seemed like a great idea at the time but is dumbing down the sport in record time.

During Game 2 of the World Series Tuesday night, the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros combined to throw 272 pitches. Using Statcast’s strike zone chart for the game, of those 272 pitches, 10 pitches that were pretty clearly balls were called strikes, while no pitches that were clearly strikes were called balls. In other words, home plate umpire Ron Kulpa made the right call 96.3% of the time. Guess what most of the conversation I saw on Twitter was about?

Yep, the 3.7% of the pitches he got wrong. Granted, I don’t think being correct 96.3% of the time is an above-average rate for MLB umpires, but it’s not like Kulpa was making a million mistakes. Yet, now that a viewer can judge every pitch at home with the benefit of a strike zone display, it’s what gets the most attention. There are Twitter accounts that exist for the sole purpose of telling you an umpire missed a call.

There was a time earlier this season when a national broadcast I was watching didn’t have the strike zone overlay. I don’t think it was intentional as much as they were having problems getting the graphic up. And you know what? It was one of the most enjoyable broadcasts of a MLB game I’d seen. You were able to just focus on the flow of the baseball game taking place rather than dissecting whether each and every pitch was called correctly.

I wish it would become the norm again.

• The Raiders reached a contract settlement with Jon Gruden.
• The Jazz are atop the latest edition of NBA Power Rankings.
• Bowl games would prefer not to be killed off by an expanded College Football Playoff.
• Ranking soccer legends who returned to their clubs as managers.

All right, I’m going to try getting 96.3% of my bets right from now on and see if the only ones I hear about are the 3.7% I get wrong.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏈 Packers at Cardinals, 8:20 p.m. | TV: FOX

The Pick: Packers +6.5 (-110): It is not often we get the chance to bet on Aaron Rodgers as this considerable an underdog, but I’m happy to trust the plucky up-and-comer tonight. Yes, the Arizona Cardinals are undefeated, and yes, the Packers will be without Davante Adams. I don’t care. This is not the first time that Davante Adams has had to miss a game. He missed two last season and four in 2019. The Packers went 6-0 in those games without him as Rodgers threw for 1,865 yards, 17 touchdowns and one interception. Davante Adams is awesome, but Aaron Rodgers isn’t reliant on any one receiver.

Now, when this line opened initially, the Cardinals were three-point favorites. Then the news that Adams was placed on the COVID list moved the line to where it is now. I love Adams, but he’s not worth 3.5 points by himself, and, as I just documented, Rodgers and the Packers have been just fine without him before. They’ll also be without Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, but MVS has been out most of the season, and Allen Lazard has been targeted only 21 times in seven games. Neither were considerable parts of the offense before.

What the Packers still have aside from Rodgers is Aaron Jones — who is just as helpful in the passing game — and A.J. Dillon. While this Arizona defense ranks ninth overall in success rate, against the run the Cardinals rank 22nd in the NFL and allow 4.97 yards per carry. Only the Chargers allow more. With the injuries and it being a short week, I fully anticipate the Packers leaning on the ground game more often tonight and for Aaron Rodgers to still make all the important throws when he has to. The official play here is to take the points, but I would also consider sprinkling a little on the Packers money line.

Key Trend: The Packers have covered in six straight games.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s R.J. White is 46-13-1 with his last 60 ATS picks involving the Packers and has released his pick for Thursday’s game.

💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Knicks at Bulls, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Under 216 (-110) — It’s Joakim Noah Night in Chicago, as the Bulls celebrate the career of Joakim Noah with both his former Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau and his former college coach (who is now coaching the Bulls) Billy Donovan in town. Also, the Bulls have brought just about every teammate Noah had in Chicago to town for the night, so it’s going to be a misty-eyed night for yours truly. Seriously, there are very few players I’d watch an eight-minute tribute video for, and Joakim Noah is one of them.

Anyway, as for the game, I don’t expect a lot of points! You can nitpick the Bulls’ 4-0 start all you want, but there’s nothing to nitpick about their defensive performance. They’ve been terrific since the season’s opening tip and rank second in the league in defensive rating. The Knicks rank only 16th, but they’re still coached by Tom Thibodeau, so their defense is at the heart of everything they do. Tonight’s game will be the kind of hard-fought, close contest that Joakim Noah would’ve thrived in, and it also happens to be the type of environment unders thrive in too.

Key Trend: The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

🏈 College Football

South Florida at East Carolina, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Under 56 (-110) — There are a few important factors at play here that are pushing me toward the under. The first is that South Florida has improved in recent weeks, and, as a considerable underdog, I expect the Bulls to lean into their run game. The Bulls already run the ball 60.4% of the time, which is the 15th-highest rate in the country. Tonight they face an East Carolina defense that ranks 90th in success rate against the run and 103rd in defensive EPA against the run. That means the Bulls should have the chance to successfully limit the overall possessions in the game and not allow the Pirates a chance to pull away.

There’s also the weather. The forecast for tonight calls for rain and winds of over 11 mph. The rain isn’t supposed to be heavy, so it won’t be a huge factor, but the wind should be. There is no greater weather impact on football than that of the wind. Heavy winds make it more difficult to pass downfield (at least it does at the college level where QB play isn’t nearly as sound as it is in the NFL) and also impacts special teams. So, given the likely game script that we’ll see tonight, the under is the best play available here, though I don’t hate USF and the points, either.

Key Trend: The under is 5-1 in ECU’s last six as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: SportsLine’s Projection Model has simulated tonight’s game between the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards over 10,000 times, and it loves one side of the spread.

🏀 Back To Basic Parlay

We’re keeping it basic tonight with some chalk. A three-leg moneyline parlay paying +119.

• 76ers (-650)
• Mavericks (-280)
• Warriors (-250)