The No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish look to climb back into the College Football Playoff conversation with a strong finish to the season as they take on the North Carolina Tar Heels in nonconference action on Saturday, October 30. The Irish (6-1), who have won nine consecutive night games at home, are coming off a 31-16 thrashing of Southern Cal last week. The Tar Heels (4-3), who have won two of three, defeated Miami, Fla., two weeks ago, 45-42. This will be the fifth meeting between Notre Dame and North Carolina since 2006. The Fighting Irish won last year’s meeting 31-17. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 19-2, including a 12-0 edge in games played at South Bend.
Kickoff from Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind., is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Fighting Irish are 3.5-point favorites in the latest North Carolina vs. Notre Dame odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 62.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. Notre Dame picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,900 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 9 of the 2021 season on a 26-11 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on North Carolina vs. Notre Dame and just locked in its coveted picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see all of the model’s CFB picks. Now, here are several college football betting lines and trends for Notre Dame vs. UNC:
- North Carolina vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -3.5
- North Carolina vs. Notre Dame over-under: 62.5 points
- North Carolina vs. Notre Dame money line: North Carolina +150, Notre Dame -175
- UNC: The Tar Heels are 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 games following an ATS loss
- ND: The Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game
Featured Game | Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Why Notre Dame can cover
The Fighting Irish are more than capable of putting up points and, when they score more than 30, they usually win. Notre Dame has won 38 consecutive games when it has reached 30 or more points, including last week’s win over USC. The Irish are 71-9 under coach Brian Kelly when they score 30 or more. The Irish also have dominated unranked opponents, winning 37 in a row dating back to the 2016 season, which is the longest active streak in FBS.
One of the reasons for Notre Dame’s success this season has been the play of graduate transfer quarterback Jack Coan. The former Wisconsin Badger has completed 63.5 percent of his passes this season, completing 120-of-189 attempts for 1,397 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has been intercepted four times, but still has a rating of 140.6. In last week’s win over USC, Coan completed 20-of-28 passes (71.4 percent) for 189 yards and one touchdown.
Why North Carolina can cover
Despite that, the Fighting Irish are not a lock to cover the North Carolina vs. Notre Dame spread. That’s because the Tar Heels are averaging 36 points per game over their last three games. When North Carolina is close entering the fourth quarter, there is a good chance it will finish strong. The Tar Heels have a plus-24 scoring margin in the final quarter this season, and led the nation in fourth-quarter scoring margin in 2019 and 2020 at plus-116 during that span.
Junior quarterback Sam Howell is a dual-threat on offense. He leads the team in passing and is second in rushing. Howell has completed 129-of-211 passes (61.1 percent) for 1,851 yards and 18 touchdowns with six interceptions and a rating of 157.3. He has also carried the ball 96 times for 494 yards (5.1 average) and five scores. In the win over Miami, Fla., two weeks ago, Howell threw for two touchdowns and rushed for two more.
How to make North Carolina vs. Notre Dame picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the point total, projecting 61 total points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the model’s Notre Dame vs. North Carolina pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Notre Dame vs. UNC? And which side of the spread cashes in 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Notre Dame spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past five-plus years up nearly $3,900 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.
