ATLANTA — The 2021 World Series shifts from Texas to Georgia for Game 4 between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves on Saturday night. The Braves grabbed a 2-1 series lead in the misty and cool conditions in Game 3 behind some excellent pitching.
As has been and will continue to be the case, I’m doing the game picks over on SportsLine. I’ve gone 21-10-1 thus far in the playoffs — so hop on over there and subscribe.
In this space, we’ll focus on props, the over/under and other fun.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Over 8.5, -120
After hitting the under in Game 1 and the over in Game 2, we got trucked here in Game 3 with just two runs scored. The weather conditions are not great for hitting, that’s for sure, but I’m sticking here with the over anyway.
The Astros are hitting .198/.278/.292 this series and while you have to credit the Braves’ pitching staff, this collection of players is simply too good to keep hitting so poorly, especially with the Braves trying to put together a bullpen game started by Dylan Lee. He’s a lefty and fellow lefty Drew Smyly is likely to be counted on for length. The Astros crushed lefties this year.
On the other side, I don’t trust an Astros’ bullpen game to keep things low scoring. The Braves’ offense is also better than it has shown in the last two games — well, all series after the first three innings of Game 1.
Both offenses are due. Both pitching staffs are primed to have a rough night. Take the over.
Zack Greinke under 2.5 strikeouts, -167
When you see the name Greinke, it’s easy to believe he’s going to work deep into the game and pile up a decent strikeout total, but that’s not who he is right now. Since Sept. 19, Greinke has done the following:
- 2 1/3 innings on Oct. 3, three strikeouts
- 1 inning on Oct. 10, one strikeout
- 1 1/3 innings on Oct. 19, zero strikeouts
He’s more of an opener at this point. It’s hard to see him going more than two innings, meaning he’d have to strikeout more than a batter per inning. He struck out 120 hitters in 171 innings in the regular season and has one strikeout in 2 1/3 postseason innings.
Bonus: Carlos Correa home run, +500
We gave it a shot with Correa in Game 3 and it didn’t pay off, but my logic here remains the same: He’s too talented a hitter to keep this up. Since his “it’s my time” motion in Game 1 of the ALCS, he’s 4 for 30. Unlike, say, Alex Bregman, he doesn’t feel totally helpless at the plate right now, either. His out in the ninth inning was a hard liner in the gap that was caught by a well-positioned defender. To the eye test, he looks like he’s just right there, ready to bust out at +500 is a big number.
