ATLANTA — Game 5 of the 2021 World Series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves is set for Sunday night in suburban Atlanta. The Braves grabbed a 3-1 series lead in the misty and cool conditions in Game 4 behind back-to-back homers in the seventh along with the Astros leaving 11 men on base.
As has been and will continue to be the case, I’m doing the game picks over on SportsLine. I’ve gone 21-11-1 thus far in the playoffs — so hop on over there and subscribe.
In this space, we’ll focus on props, the over/under and other fun.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Over 8.5, -115
I never learn, right? After taking it on the chin in Games 3 and 4 on the over (I hit the under in Game 1 and the over in Game 2, so we’re even on the series), I’m going back to the well. It’s possible the weather played some role in the low-scoring affairs in Games 3 and 4 and it’s a bit better for Game 5. As I sit here in Truist Park, the sun is out, the tarp is off and the field is being prepped for batting practice for the first time this series.
I also feel like the Astros are a sleeping giant. They’ve gone 4 for 32 with runners in scoring position and have left 32 men on base this series. They are far too good an offense to keep being held down like this. They’ll get lefty Tucker Davidson, who has all of five games of MLB experience and none of those were in the postseason. The Astros ate up lefties this year, too.
On the other side, the Braves’ offense feasted on Astros starter Framber Valdez in Game 1 and the Astros have used a ton of bullpen in the past two games.
Will we finally get that 5-4 final? I’m liking the odds.
Framber Valdez over 3.5 strikeouts, -162
Valdez was shelled by the Braves in Game 1, coughing up five runs in just two innings. He still struck out two in those two innings, though, and I like him for a bounce back outing here. Assuming he lasts at least five innings, we’ll get home here. He averages just about one strikeout per inning in his career.
Bonus: Jose Altuve home run, +300
The only player in history with more playoff home runs than Altuve is Manny Ramirez. Altuve hasn’t been posting a big batting average, but when he does get a knock, it’s a home run. He was also robbed of extra bases twice by great defensive plays in Game 4 in addition to his homer, so I’m liking how locked in he seems at the moment. He gets a lefty starter here, so that’s a bonus (his splits this season hasn’t skewed toward lefties, but over the course of his career, he’s hit lefties much better than righties).
