The Titans are trying to make up for the loss of one future Hall of Famer by signing another, as they announced the signing of Adrian Peterson to the practice squad the same say we found out Derrick Henry would be going on injured reserve with a foot injury.
Henry suffered the foot injury during Sunday’s game against the Colts in Week 8, and he’ll undergo surgery to repair a fracture. The procedure is expected to have a 6-10 week timetable, with the shorter end leaving open the possibility of a return for the Fantasy Football playoffs in Week 15. Of course, that would be the best-case scenario; it might be just as likely we don’t see him again at all during the regular season. Either way, Fantasy players are now missing the No. 1 player in Fantasy for the bulk of the remainder of the season at least, and we have to at least consider the possibility of Peterson being his replacement, right?
Want more fallout from the Henry injury and advice on what to do if your roster revolved around him? We’ve got you covered with an emergency Fantasy Football Today podcast complete with possible replacements and more:
Well, you figure they wouldn’t have brought him in if not. It’s possible that the Titans swing a trade sometime before Tuesday’s 4 p.m. ET deadline, but if that was how they were planning on replacing Henry primarily, wouldn’t they wait to make a signing until after the deadline? They do still have roster flexibility, of course, having added both Henry and backup Darrynton Evans to IR in recent days, and Peterson was technically added to the practice squad, with the expectation he will be elevated potentially in time for Week 9’s game against the Rams.
If it is Peterson who steps up to fill Henry’s shoes, we shouldn’t expect a one-for-one replacement, obviously — Peterson, though no stranger to a workhorse role has never averaged more than 22.7 carries per game, while Henry was north of 27 per game before his injury. There’s no way the Titans would just slot a 36-year-old running back into that same role and think they can move forward. It goes without saying that Peterson won’t just be a Henry replacement.
But he may end up being the lead rusher for a team that really wants to run the ball a lot. Whether that means 15 carries per game or 18 or 20 or somewhere in between is the primary question, assuming they don’t bring another runner in. Peterson has been surprisingly effective over the past few seasons, rushing for 2,544 yards at 4.1 per carry between 2018 and 2020 — his age-33 through 35 seasons, mind you. If he just did something like that while getting 15 carries per game, Peterson would obviously be Fantasy relevant.
But it’s hard to see him being a must-start option at this point. Peterson has never been a great pass-catching option, and he had just 12 catches in 16 games for the Lions last season, and that was a team that threw to their running backs quite a bit. The Titans don’t do that nearly as much, and even with Henry seeing an expanded role as a pass catcher this season, he was still barely on pace for 40 catches in 17 games. I would take the under on that pace for Peterson even if he does end up the lead back.
Which is all to say, Peterson’s best-case scenario is he falls into that Elijah Mitchell/Damien Harris/Antonio Gibson/Nick Chubb archetype of players who rely heavily on volume and touchdowns to be Fantasy starters. And he would almost certainly fall toward the lower end of that hierarchy. Maybe you could be looking at between 60 and 70 all-purpose yards per game, with a touchdown being the difference between a low-end RB3 performance and a low-end No. 2 performance most weeks.
Which is to say, while Peterson probably deserves to be added in most leagues, don’t break the bank for him. Yes, he might be a starting Fantasy option for the rest of the season, but he’s probably not going to be a difference maker at any point. If you have a need right now and can snag him for cheap, do it, but don’t add Peterson with the expectation you’ll just be able to slot him into your lineup and forget about it.
My preferred approach if I have a lot of FAB left would be to try to add him and then immediately trade him to some RB-needy team. Peterson is a big name, and in the wake of his signing following Henry’s injury, somebody might be desperate enough to trade you either an injured player with more upside — think David Montgomery or Chris Carson — or perhaps an underperforming wide receiver like Julio Jones, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, or Jerry Jeudy.
Maybe Peterson will prove me wrong and end up helping carry the Titans to the playoffs. But he hasn’t been even a top-24 RB in Fantasy points per game in PPR in any of the last three seasons, and I wouldn’t expect much different this time around.
