Saturday, October 19, 2024

NFL Week 9 early odds: Cowboys’ perfect ATS mark on the line as heavy home favorites, Bills line skyrockets

NFL Week 9 early odds: Cowboys’ perfect ATS mark on the line as heavy home favorites, Bills line skyrockets

Week 8 in the NFL will wrap up on Monday when the Giants and Chiefs square up at Arrowhead Stadium. While we still have one more game left on the docket, it’s never too early to take a look at what is in store for us in Week 9, especially with the majority of teams already turning their attention to their next opponent. Next week’s slate does have a number of intriguing matchups. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be heading to Kansas City to face the Chiefs, New England will be in Carolina and facing off against old friend Stephon Gilmore, and we’ll have a battle between two 1-7 teams in the Texans and Dolphins

Below, we’ll take our first glimpse of these matchups and get our impression on the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top. 

Week 9 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Jets (2-5) at Colts (3-5), Thursday 

Opening line: Colts -14

Indianapolis opened as a two-touchdown favorite over the Jets, but the events of Sunday do have this number ticking back towards New York. Now, Indy is a 10.5-point favorite as this number has come down by over a field goal. Of course, this comes after the Jets were able to stun the Cincinnati Bengals with backup quarterback Mike White and the Colts fell to the Titans in overtime. Still, Indianapolis should still be considered a heavy favorite, but it will be interesting to see what White can do for an encore on a short week. The Colts are 13-4-1 in their last 18 Thursday games, while the Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall. 

Falcons (3-4) at Saints (5-2) 

Opening line: Saints -5.5 

This line hasn’t changed coming out of Sunday, which is rather interesting considering that Saints starting quarterback Jameis Winston suffered a knee injury that is reportedly expected to sideline him for the rest of the season. There’s a chance Taysom Hill is ready to return to the field in time for this game, so that could be why New Orleans continues to be looked at as the 5.5-point favorite. The oddsmakers could also be taking into account Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley stepping away from football to focus on his mental health in keeping this number still. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against the NFC South. Meanwhile, the Saints are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 division games.  

Broncos (4-4) at Cowboys (6-1) 

Opening line: Cowboys -7.5

This number likely won’t move much until we get word on the status of Dak Prescott. There was some optimism that he’d be able to play in Week 8 against Minnesota, but the Cowboys brass decided to keep him on the shelf after evaluating him pregame. In his absence, Cooper Rush played well and connected with Amari Cooper on a late touchdown to give them the win. Not only did that propel them to victory, but it also keep Dallas undefeated against the spread on the year at 7-0. They now host a Broncos team that was able to beat Washington in Week 7, but only managed 273 yards of offense. While Dallas remains hot for bettors, the Broncos have cooled in recent weeks, going 1-4 ATS in their last five.  

Patriots (4-4) at Panthers (4-4) 

Opening line: Patriots -2.5

New England has already jumped out to being a 3-point road favorite against the Panthers. The Patriots were able to notch their second win in a row on Sunday after upsetting the Chargers in Los Angeles. That was thanks to a number of key defensive turnovers, which could be a factor against in this contest. The Panthers are averaging two giveaways per game at home this season, which is tied for third-most in the NFL. Of course, one of the main storylines in this game will also be the status of running back Christian McCaffrey and whether or not he’ll be able to suit up. If he does, that could shake up the line back towards Carolina some. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, while the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests as the road favorite. 

Vikings (3-4) at Ravens (5-2) 

Opening line: Ravens -6

Minnesota nearly defeated the Cowboys on Sunday night, but a late touchdown pushed them back down under .500 on the season. Now, they’ll face a Ravens team that was on the bye for Week 8 and is looking to make a jump up the conference standings. Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games and 6-0 ATS at home against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games. 

Browns (4-4) at Bengals (5-3) 

Opening line: Bengals -3

This number has since dipped below the field goal threshold to Bengals -2.5, which could be in part due to Cincinnati’s stunning loss to the New York Jets in Week 8. The defense allowed backup Mike White to throw for 405 yards through the air in his first-ever start. Cincy was also outscored 17-7 in the fourth quarter, which opened the door for them to fall to 5-3 on the season. As for Cleveland, they fell to the Steelers at home as Ben Roethlisberger continued to terrorize his division rival with 266 yards passing. Despite losses in Week 8, both of these AFC North squads do have encouraging trends heading into this matchup. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS following a straight-up loss and the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 

Bills (5-2) at Jaguars (1-6) 

Opening line: Bills -10.5

This number has jumped up quickly following Week 8 and the Bills are now looked at as a 14-point favorite as they are set to go on the road and face the Jaguars in Jacksonville. Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS this season and owns the largest average margin of victory in the league at 17.1. As for the Jaguars, they have started the year 2-5 ATS and are losing to teams by 11.4 points on average. They’ve also not played particularly well at home as they are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. 

Texans (1-7) at Dolphins (1-7) 

Opening line: Dolphins -7.5

This game will have more of an impact on the 2022 NFL Draft order than it will on the 2021 standings. That said, the Dolphins did open as a 7.5-point favorite in this head-to-head, but that number has since dipped down a half-point on Monday. This comes after both teams feel in Week 8. Jacksonville could only manage seven points against Seattle, while Dolphins kept it close with the Bills for three quarters before they allowed 16 points in the fourth and allowed them to walk away with the victory. Neither of these teams has been kind to bettors with the Jags owning a 2-5 ATS record while the Dolphins come into Week 9 with a 2-5-1 ATS mark. 

Raiders (5-2) at Giants (2-5) 

Opening line: Raiders -2.5

New York still has the Chiefs to worry about on Monday night before it can fully turn its attention to the Raiders and this line likely won’t move much until that game concludes. Las Vegas was on the bye in week 8 but is now in sole possession of first place in the AFC West after the Chargers lost to the Patriots on Sunday. The Raiders have also been a decent bet this season as they’ve covered in 57.1% of their games entering Week 9. 

Chargers (4-3) at Eagles (3-5) 

Opening line: Chargers -3

The Chargers are in the midst of a two-game losing skid that has them falling behind the Raiders in the AFC West race. Meanwhile, they’ll visit an Eagles team that just dominated the Detroit Lions on the ground for 236 yards on 5.1 yards per carry and four touchdowns. Los Angeles is one of the worst running defenses in the NFL, so this could be a tough spot for them, even if they have the superior quarterback in Justin Herbert. However, the Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road contests.

Packers (7-1) at Chiefs (3-4) 

Opening line: Chiefs -2.5

Green Bay will come into this game on extended rest after playing on Thursday, while the Chiefs will be on a short week following their Monday Night Football matchup with New York. Despite that, K.C. is being currently being bumped up to a field goal favorite against the Packers, who just took down previously undefeated Cardinals in Week 8. These odds will likely shift a bit once the status of star receiver Davante Adams (COVID protocols) begins to crystalize a bit more. Green Bay enters this game 7-1 ATS, covering in 87.5% of their contests. 

Cardinals (7-1) at 49ers (3-4) 

Opening line: Cardinals -3

Arizona is looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season in Week 8 at the hands of the Packers and will try to do so when they travel to San Francisco to face the Niners. They are fresh off a win over the Chicago Bears where Jimmy Garoppolo rushed for two touchdowns. This will be the second matchup of the season between these division rivals with the Cardinals taking the previous matchup by seven points. That’s likely part of the reason why they are looked at as a field goal favorite on the road for this head-to-head. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in its last four road matchups, while the 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

Titans (6-2) at Rams (7-1) 

Opening line: Rams -4

This line is going to go bananas this week as both of these clubs have taken over the news cycle for various reasons. For Tennessee, they have lost star running back Derrick Henry for the remainder of the season due to a foot injury that will require surgery. Meanwhile, the Rams pulled off a blockbuster trade on Monday where they acquired former Broncos star pass rusher Von Miller. Already, that news has shifted the lines dramatically as Los Angeles is being bumped up to a 7.5-point favorite. It wouldn’t be surprising if that number shot up even higher. 

Bears (3-5) at Steelers (4-3), Monday 

Opening line: Steelers -5.5

Pittsburgh is coming into this primetime game after grinding out a win against the Cleveland Browns. They’ll now host a Bears team that fell the 49ers on Sunday, but did see some encouraging signs from rookie Justin Field, who logged 103 yards rushing to go along with a touchdown. Both of these teams are under .500 ATS with the Steelers owning a 3-4 ATS record while the Bears are 3-5 ATS. Pittsburgh has been an especially tough bet when they are a home favorite, going 0-6 ATS in their previous six games under that circumstance. 

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