NFL Week 9 odds, picks: Chiefs offense ready to take off vs. Packers, plus banking on Dak to sit out again

I held it off for as long as possible, but sooner or later, the losing week was going to show up. It’s just the nature of the NFL, and last week, for the first time since Week 2, we lost money.

Please find it in your heart to forgive me.

Of course, after losing money in Week 2, I went on a five-week stretch of winnings, so let’s just do that again. This week I’m looking to take advantage of some mysteries in the market, as we have a couple of questionable quarterback situations to take advantage of. We also have another instance of eating our vegetables, as there’s a bet that won’t be fun to make, but is the right play.

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Packers at Chiefs: Chiefs Over 27.5 (-120)

So, we found out that the Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers after he tested positive for COVID-19. As you’d expect, this had a major impact on both the spread and the total. Before Rodgers’ diagnosis became public, the Chiefs were favored by a point, and the total was at 54.5. As of publication of this column, the spread has moved to Chiefs -7.5, and the total is at 48. So, basically, Rodgers is worth a touchdown.

But I don’t want to figure out how his absence impacts the Packers; I just want to take advantage of it with the Chiefs. You see, while all the attention will be on Rodgers, he’s not the only player the Packers are missing. A quick look at their injured list shows a lot of key players on the defensive side of the ball have already been ruled out or are questionable. Now that Packers defense will have to help cover for a young, inexperienced QB in Jordan Love, who is a lot more likely to put them in bad positions than Rodgers ever has. And its facing a Kansas City offense that could really use a chance to show off and dominate somebody. Once the dam breaks, I don’t see this Chiefs offense slowing down, and there’s a good chance that happens Sunday afternoon.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Packers 17

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Broncos at Cowboys: Broncos +10 (-125)

Dak Prescott missed Dallas’ win over Minnesota on Sunday night, as Cooper Rush stepped in and performed admirably. As of now, all signs point to Dak returning against Denver this week, but there’s a decent chance he won’t be 100% if he plays. There’s also a chance the Cowboys will look at their opponent and their division and opt to let Dak rest another week, knowing they can win this game without him. That’s the ideal scenario for taking the Broncos here.

But it’s not a scenario we should rely on. Nor does it matter much to me because I’m on the Broncos either way. For all the flaws Denver has on offense, it’s still an excellent defensive team. It ranks fourth in the NFL in points allowed per drive and second in success rate. Even though it traded Von Miller, he’s not the same devastating force he has been in the past. And while the Broncos aren’t great offensively, the Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been spectacular. Yes, it’s made plenty of big plays, but you can’t rely on turnovers being turned into touchdowns every week, particularly against a Denver offense that doesn’t take many risks.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Broncos 20

Texans at Dolphins: Texans +6.5 (-105)

Time to eat your vegetables! Listen, the Texans were heroes last week for that fourth-quarter, garbage-time, backdoor-cover extravaganza, and they’re going to carry all that momentum into Week 9! OK, that’s probably overstating things a bit, but do you want to trust Miami to cover a spread this large? As terrible as the Houston offense has been, it’s not like Miami’s lighting the world on fire. The Dolphins rank 28th in points per possession and 29th in success rate on offense. Defensively they’re average at best as well.

Another area that I can’t ignore is that Miami is just as bad at taking care of the football as the Texans are. Both the Texans and Dolphins have turned the ball over 13 times in eight games. If we dive even deeper, we see that nine of Miami’s 13 turnovers have come in the five games started by Tua Tagovailoa, who will once again be at the helm against the Texans this week. If you’re down with trusting a bad offense that can’t hold on to the football to cover a spread this large in an NFL game, it’s your life, and it’s your money. You won’t find me joining you there.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Texans 20