The Purdue Boilermakers will try to pull off another huge upset on Saturday when they host the Michigan State Spartans, the No. 3 team in the initial CFP rankings, in a Big Ten matchup. The Boilermakers (5-3) beat Iowa 24-7 three weeks ago, when the Hawkeyes came in as the nation’s No. 2 team. It has been an up-and-down year for Purdue, but it comes in off a 28-23 win against Nebraska last Saturday. The Spartans (8-0) are coming in on a major high after rallying to beat arch-rival Michigan 37-33 the same day as running back and Heisman Trophy candidate Kenneth Walker III broke loose for 197 yards and five touchdowns.
Kickoff is set for 3:30 ET in West Lafayette, Ind. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Spartans as three-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Purdue odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 53.5. Before locking in any Purdue vs. Michigan State picks, make sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on a 28-15 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has locked in on Michigan State vs. Purdue and just revealed its CFB Week 10 picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several Week 10 college football odds and betting lines for Purdue vs. Michigan State:
- Michigan State vs. Purdue spread: Michigan State -3
- Michigan State vs. Purdue over-under: 53.5 points
- Michigan State vs. Purdue money line: Spartans -150, Boilermakers +130
- MSU: It has allowed more than 300 passing yards three times
- PUR: It has given up more than 175 total rushing yards once
Featured Game | Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Why Michigan State can cover
Michigan State is 4-0 against the spread on the road this season and comes in soaring after Walker’s dominant performance last week. He has 1,194 rushing yards and 14 TDs and is averaging almost 7.0 yards per carry. Purdue’s defense is stout, but its weakness is against the run, and it gives up 141.6 yards per game on the ground (55th in FBS). Quarterback Payton Thorne has put up 1,897 passing yards and 15 TDs, and he has a pair of star receivers in Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor. They have combined for 64 catches for 1,229 yards and 11 TDs.
The Spartans defense allows just 20.7 points per game (29th in FBS), while Purdue’s offense scores just 22.9 (103rd). The unit also has 14 takeaways, with linebacker Cal Haladay and cornerback Chester Kimbrough each intercepting a pass and recovering a fumble. The Spartans are 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight overall, and they face a Purdue team that is 1-6 ATS in its past seven at home.
Why Purdue can cover
The Michigan State defense is vulnerable to the pass, and that is where Purdue finds its most success. The Boilermakers ranks 16th in the nation in passing yards (307 per game), while the Spartans defense is 127th (301). Quarterback Aidan O’Connell (1,551 yards, nine TDs) has plenty of weapons to exploit that, with receiver David Bell the biggest threat. The junior had 240 yards and a TD in the upset of Iowa and has topped 100 yards in three other games. Milton Wright (32 catches for 315 yards) and Jackson Anthrop (28 for 236) also are heavily involved.
TJ Sheppard (24 catches, three TDs) is another possession receiver MSU will need to account for, and tight end Payne Durham (36 for 356) is a dangerous weapon, Running back King Doerue has 14 catches and 363 rushing yards. The underdog is 9-1-1 in the past 11 meetings, and the Spartans could have trouble scoring. The Purdue defense allows just 17.1 points per game (10th in FBS). Linebacker Jaylan Alexander is the leader with 58 tackles and has batted down four passes, and the Boilermakers have 10 interceptions, led by safety Cam Allen with four.
How to make Michigan State vs. Purdue picks
The model is projecting under on the total, projecting that the teams will combine for 44 points. The model also says one side of the point spread has all the value. You can only get the model’s Michigan State vs. Purdue picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Saturday’s Michigan State vs. Purdue matchup? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Purdue vs. Michigan State spread to back on Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 28-15 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.
