Fantasy Football Week 10 Tight End Preview: Dallas Goedert frustrating, but probably a buy low

With Zach Ertz in Arizona, Dallas Goedert was supposed to finally be freed. In some ways, he has been. After all, his 28.6% target share since Week 7 ranks second among all tight ends and leads the Eagles. 

At the same time, Goedert has averaged a mediocre 10.17 PPR Fantasy points per game in those three weeks, just barely outpacing Ertz over the same stretch. For the season, Goedert ranks 12th at the position in Fantasy points per game, but he’s closer to Evan Engram in 23rd than he is to Kyle Pitts in 10th. It’s fair to say he’s been one of the disappointments at the position, even since Ertz’s departure.

The problems are various. For one thing, he hasn’t scored since Ertz left and only has two touchdowns on the season. Then again, his 5.4% touchdown rate doesn’t exactly scream regression when Jalen Hurts has a modest four percent career rate himself. 

The second problem is that while Goedert’s share of the pie has skyrocketed, the size of the pie itself has shrunk in spectacular fashion. Hurts has attempted just 31 passes over the past two weeks. Again, like the lack of recent touchdowns, that should improve. I’d expect a minimum of 25 pass attempts per game for the Eagles from this point forward.

With that type of volume, Goedert would see seven targets per game at his recent target rate. At that point, it becomes a question of whether he performs at the rate he has this year (10.8 yards per target) or his career (8.0 yards per target) and how many touchdowns he scores. 

For now, Goedert looks more like the borderline No. 1 tight end he’s been with Ertz than the top-six breakout we expected when Ertz was dealt. I would expect that to change before the end of the year, but I’m not sure it does in Week 10.

Here’s everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 10:

Week 10 TE Preview

The following players are not being projected to play Week 10 at this time. Here’s what it means:

• 13 — Tyler Higbee leads all tight ends with 13 red zone targets.
• 0 — The Saints, Vikings, and Broncos have still not allowed a touchdown to a tight end this season.
• 30.8% — Kyle Pitts’ 30.8% air yards share is tops among tight ends.
• 19% — Cole Kmet has the sixth-highest target share amongst tight ends and a very good schedule coming out of the bye.
• 48.5 — Pat Freiermuth has scored 48.5 PPR points since Week 6. That makes him TE3, and he had his bye in that stretch.
• 4 — Hunter Henry hasn’t seen more than four targets in a game since Week 5.

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