The Indianapolis Colts have rectified an 0-3 start to win three of their last four games and emerge as a dark horse in the AFC playoff race. While Indianapolis is not one of the 11 AFC teams currently over .500, the Colts continue to surge behind the play of Carson Wentz and Jonathan Taylor.
In come the Jacksonville Jaguars, winners of two of their last three games after losing 20 consecutive games dating back to last season. Jacksonville has lost 12 straight road games, one shy of matching the longest streak in franchise history — making Sunday’s test against Indianapolis all the more difficult. The Jaguars are coming off one of the biggest upsets of the season in beating the Buffalo Bills, a team considered a Super Bowl contender to come out of the conference.
Can the Colts get to .500 for the first time this year? Will the Jaguars snap their road losing streak? Here’s a preview of Sunday’s AFC South clash.
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 14 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Colts -10.5, O/U 47.5
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Key Matchups
Jonathan Taylor vs. Jaguars run defense
Feels odd this is a key matchup given the success of Taylor this year. Making his case as the best running back in football, Taylor has 821 yards and eight rushing touchdowns in nine games this year, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. He also leads the league with 1,114 yards from scrimmage, emerging as the biggest threat in the Colts offense.
The Jaguars run defense is one of the best in the league, allowing 3.8 yards per carry (third in the NFL). Jacksonville can counter Taylor’s strong side when he carries the ball, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry when running backs go to their right (fourth-fewest in NFL). Taylor averages 6.6 yards per carry when going to his right, the highest in the NFL.
Colts third-down defense
Indianapolis has not been a good team on third down in recent weeks. The Colts have allowed their opponents to convert on 44% of their third-down opportunities since Week 6, the eighth-highest rate in the NFL. They’ll have an opportunity to rectify that against Jacksonville, which has a league-worst 29.8% conversion rate on third down.
Part of the failure on third down has been Trevor Lawrence, who has completed 43.1% of his passes for 362 yards with one touchdown to one interception (57.8 rating). Lawrence is just 13 of 33 on third downs of seven yards or higher.
Prediction
Latest Odds: Indianapolis Colts -10.5
Indianapolis can’t take Jacksonville lightly, as the Jaguars have won two of their last three games — beating Buffalo in their last meeting. Still, the Colts could be able to take advantage against Jacksonville’s defense in the passing game. Jacksonville plays mostly a zone defense and Wentz has completed 68% of his passes against the zone this year. This has the makings of a game Wentz throws for three touchdowns.
Colts 31, Jaguars 20
