UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez odds, predictions: MMA insider releases surprising fight card picks

Top-ranked featherweight Max Holloway will take on third-ranked Yair Rodriguez on Saturday in the main event of UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez. Their battle tops the main UFC fight card (4 p.m. ET) from the promotion’s Apex facility in Las Vegas. Holloway is the former champion who made four successful title defenses before losing the title and subsequent rematch in two close fights against current champion Alexander Volkanovski. Rodriguez is a versatile talent who hasn’t fought in more than two years because of various injuries and a suspension for violating USADA protocols. The winner of Saturday’s main event likely will become the frontrunner to face Volkanovski for the next title shot.

Holloway is a -600 favorite (risk $600 to win $100), while Rodriguez is priced at +450 in the latest Holloway vs. Rodriguez odds at Caesars Sportsbook. In the co-main event, Ben Rothwell (-150) takes on Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+130) in a battle of veteran heavyweights. Before making any UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez picks of your own, make sure you check out the MMA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine analyst Andrew Gombas

Gombas is a former NCAA wrestler who taps into his experience on the mat to dissect the X’s and O’s of MMA matchups in a manner that sets him apart from other MMA analysts. He started the MMA handicapping service MMA Knockout Bets in 2018 and has shown a profit every year since.

With more than 1,200 selections tracked by the third-party monitoring service Bet MMA, he has shown a 10 percent return on investment for his followers. In 2020, $100 bettors who tailed his picks were up $9,200. L week at UFC 268, Gombas accurately called a dominant performance for Bobby Green (-170) against Al Iaquinta (+150) in a battle of veteran lightweights. Green scored a first-round stoppage to give his followers an easy winner. Anyone who has followed Gombas already has seen massive returns.

Now, with UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez in sight, Gombas has studied the UFC Fight Night card from top to bottom and released his top selections. A successful parlay of those picks would pay better than 10-1. See them here.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez preview

Holloway (22-6) remains one of the most popular fighters on the UFC roster because of his nonstop attacking style inside the cage and gregarious personality away from it. Even though he is still just 29, the Hawaiian is on the doorstep of his 10th anniversary with the UFC. His career with the promotion began with a submission loss to Dustin Poirier in February 2012, but he has since emerged as one of the dominant fighters of this generation.

Following a loss to Conor McGregor in August 2013 while both were still prospects, Holloway reeled off 13 consecutive UFC victories and became a champion in the process. He defeated Anthony Pettis for the title at UFC 206 in December 2016 and his defense included back-to-back wins over former titleholder Jose Aldo.

His stock has hardly dimmed despite the pair of losses to Volkanovski in large part because both were competitive matches. Many observers felt Holloway deserved to win the rematch, but the champion was awarded a disputed split decision. Trilogy fights rarely happen when one combatant has won the first two, but Holloway’s plight appears to be a potential exception.

Rodriguez (13-2-1) is known for his vast array of weapons that include karate, kickboxing and submissions. The 29-year-old Mexican fighter won his first six UFC appearances before suffering a loss to former champion Frankie Edgar.

He has two wins and one no-contest since, and his last outing resulted in a lopsided decision over rugged veteran Jeremy Stephens in October 2019. You can only see who to back here.

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez predictions

We’ll share one of Gombas’ UFC Fight Night selections here: He is supporting Thiago Moises (-250) to get past Joel Alvarez (+210) in a matchup of lightweight prospects.

The No. 15-ranked Moises (15-5) had won three straight before falling by fourth-round submission in July to Islam Makhachev, who has since risen to No. 4 in the top-loaded division. His resume includes wins over prospect Alexander Hernandez and resilient veteran Bobby Green.

Alvarez (18-2) lost his UFC debut, but has since reeled off three consecutive victories. The 28-year-old Spaniard defeated Alexander Yakovlev by submission last October, but is stepping up in level of competition Saturday.

“Thiago Moises has good kicks, a complete grappling game and is good on the fence. Joel Alvarez is big for the weight class and is a finisher. He is willing to give up position to go for a submission and he is good at it. I see Moises avoiding the traps and securing the victory,” Gombas told SportsLine.

How to make UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez picks

Gombas also has strong picks for Holloway vs. Rodriguez and other fights on the UFC Fight Night card. He’s also backing one fighter who’s superior in striking and cardio to deliver an upset. Those UFC Fight Night picks are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Holloway vs. Rodriguez? And which UFC picks do you need to make for a 10-1 parlay? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed top picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the insider who’s up nearly $9,200 on MMA picks in the past year, and find out.