Happy Wednesday, everybody! Tyler Sullivan here with you on this fine fall afternoon as my pals John Breech and Cody Benjamin take a well-deserved break from delivering you the need-to-know news throughout the NFL.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter, and if you’ve listened to the podcast this season, you’ve heard me join Will Brinson twice a week as we break down all the gambling angles of “Monday Night Football” along with “Thursday Night Football.” Be sure to check that out later this week before the white-hot Patriots head down to Atlanta to face the Falcons.
Now that my shameless plug is out of the way, let’s get you the news of the day throughout the league, including a new starting quarterback for the Jets, Week 11 picks, a look at the MVP race, and much more:
1. Today’s show: OBJ’s L.A. debut, Russell Wilson’s struggles
It’s Wednesday, so you know what that means — it’s the Brady Quinn episode of the “Pick Six NFL Podcast.” Will Brinson and Quinn ran down a number of topics throughout today’s show, including a dive into the playoff picture and MVP race heading into Week 11. Before they jumped into those topics, however, they dove a bit deeper into the debut of Odell Beckham Jr. with the Rams along with Russell Wilson’s quiet return to the Seattle Seahawks against the Packers.
Here are some of the key points Quinn made about each situation:
- OBJ won’t replace Robert Woods. It was a quiet debut for Odell Beckham Jr. with the Rams, as he played just 27% of the team’s offensive snaps during Monday’s loss to the 49ers. He was targeted three times — the initial target came on the first play of the game — and caught two of those passes for 18 yards.
That lone time he and Stafford missed was later on in Los Angeles’ opening drive when the quarterback threw an interception deep over the middle of the field. Quinn noted that this was more on Stafford trying to force the ball to Beckham more than anything the wide receiver did, which was an early example that suggests these two will need time to jell. Quinn also highlighted that folks shouldn’t expect Beckham to be a plug-and-play replacement for Robert Woods, who is now out for the year with a torn ACL. While you could stack Woods with Cooper Kupp on the same side of the field, Quinn feels Beckham is better suited as an X-receiver that the Rams isolate on one side of the field.
In a larger point, Quinn suggested that Sean McVay should head back to his roots by running the outside zone. That offensive scheme used to be the team’s calling card and stems from Kyle Shanahan’s system, which was on full display Monday night.
- Russell Wilson’s new normal. Wilson made his return to the field last week after missing three games due to a broken finger that required surgery. While Wilson was able to get back on the field rather quickly, he wasn’t the quarterback we’ve been accustomed to seeing as he completed just 50% of his passes for 161 yards and two interceptions in Seattle’s 17-0 loss to Green Bay (the first shutout loss of his NFL career).
Quinn — who dealt with a similar injury back in 2008 — previously predicted that Wilson may struggle upon his return. He said that the Seahawks quarterback will have to live with a “new normal” as it relates to releasing the football. From his prior experience, Quinn said he battled inconsistency with controlling his passes, which is something we saw from Wilson. He appeared to have a lack of zip and accuracy on his throws, particularly down the field. Quinn even said he flirted with the idea of wearing a glove on his throwing hand, but ultimately never felt comfortable enough with it to use it in a game. For Wilson, he likely would have been better served with some extra rehab time to practice how his hand has responded to the surgery.
To listen to today’s episode — and to subscribe to the best daily NFL podcast out there — be sure to click here. You can also watch Tuesday’s episode with Brady Quinn on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Pete Prisco’s picks for Week 11
Speaking of Brady Quinn, CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco writes that he knew he may have been in trouble with his Week 10 picks when his selections mirrored that of Quinn’s on CBS Sports HQ. That came to fruition as he went 5-9 ATS, but Prisco was able to salvage the slate by going 4-2 with his Best Bets. Now, Prisco has gone back into the lab and has made his calls for the entire Week 11 slate. Here are some of his notable picks:
- Patriots 27, Falcons 19. The Patriots are rolling with four straight victories, which has them pushing Buffalo in the AFC East. The Falcons looked terrible last week against the Cowboys. But these games are always tough for the visitors. I don’t think that will be the case here. The Patriots will continue to roll as Mac Jones plays well.
- Chiefs 34, Cowboys 30. This is the game of the week, and it should be an offensive shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott. This past Sunday night, Mahomes got the offense back to what we expected to see before the season. That will carry over here. The Cowboys will score their points as well since the Chiefs defense still isn’t great, so look for a high-scoring game with the Chiefs coming out on top.
- Raiders 30, Bengals 25. The Bengals are coming off the bye, while the Raiders have lost two straight games. Cincinnati wasn’t playing well before its bye and it is facing a desperate team. Look for the Raiders pass rush to get after Joe Burrow and be the difference in this one. Las Vegas gets back on track.
3. Breaking down the wide-open MVP race
In previous seasons, there have been at least one or two players who have already jumped out ahead of the MVP race. Through 10 weeks this season, however, it’s still as wide open as it was in Week 1. Derrick Henry getting hurt spoiled his chances of winning the award, and it looked like Lamar Jackson was about to take the lead before he and the Ravens laid an egg last Thursday against Miami. As we head into Week 11, we’re taking the temperature of this MVP race.
A panel of CBS Sports NFL staffers has placed their vote on the MVP race as it’s currently constituted. Tom Brady (3) received the most first-place votes, while Dak Prescott (2) and Lamar Jackson (2) were tied with the second-most. Here’s a look at the top five on the leaderboard:
MVP race entering Week 11:
1. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (23)
2. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (22)
T-3. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott; Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (20)
5. Bills QB Josh Allen (17)
The panel of voters: Jonathan Jones, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson, Jared Dubin, Tyler Sullivan, Josh Edwards, Jeff Kerr, Jordan Dajani, Bryan DeArdo
4. JLC’s insider notes for Week 11
As we gear up for another week in the NFL, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora has his eye on a handful of situations across the league. Here’s a brief look at his latest insider notes piece that includes a second-half breakout from a first-round rookie:
- Here comes Justin Fields. While it might not save some jobs for the Chicago bras, JLC is predicting a major second-half breakout from Fields. As he notes, Fields is averaging 7.15 yards per carry over the Bears‘ last four games, which is a better pace than Lamar Jackson’s MVP season in 2019. That running ability has also helped the passing game, as Fields has averaged at least 10 air yards per attempt in three of his last four games. La Canfora says the main key will be protecting Fields. If Chicago can do that, look out.
- COVID-19 impacting playoff race. With the Steelers and Chargers battling for a possible playoff tiebreaker this weekend, La Canfora highlights that COVID-19 is already starting to impact the playoff race in the NFL. As they prepare for this game, Ben Roethlisberger, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Joey Bosa and Jerry Tillery have all been placed on the COVID list, leaving their status in doubt. La Canfora writes that “it seems inevitable that some teams will be hit with periodic instances where they are short at a key position or positions because of the virus, and depth will be tested.”
5. Playoff chances for all 32 teams
Upsets have been taking over the NFL the last few weeks, which likely has you frantically looking up the current playoff picture and whether or not your favorite team has moved up or down in the standings. For example, the Ravens, Cardinals, Rams and Raiders were all looking like they had a solid hold on a playoff spot entering Week 10, but each team was handed a loss last week.
How does that impact the current playoff picture for Week 11? That’s exactly what SportsLine’s Stephen Oh is calculating. Oh punched some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the season and now has the projected playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
Wild-card round projection
AFC
7) Steelers at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens
(5) Patriots at (4) Chiefs
Bye: Titans
NFC
(7) 49ers at (2) Cardinals
(6) Saints at (3) Cowboys
(5) Rams at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: Packers
6. Rapid-fire roundup
Need more NFL news? Here’s a rundown of what’s happened over the last 24 hours.
- Elijah Mitchell’s status for Week 11 in doubt. The 49ers running back suffered a broken finger during San Francisco’s win over the Rams on Monday night. Mitchell underwent a procedure to repair the injury Tuesday, which leaves his status for Sunday’s matchup against the Jaguars in doubt.
- Le’Veon Bell released by Ravens. Le’Veon Bell announced Tuesday that he was released by the Ravens after a two-month stint with the club. Bell appeared in five games for the team and played a minimal role in the backfield attack. He’ll now hit waivers, but CBS Sports NFL insider Josina Anderson reports that Baltimore is still hoping Bell can rejoin its practice squad at some point this season.
- Joey Bosa lands on COVID-19 list. The Chargers placed Joey Bosa along with Jerry Tillery on the COVID-19 list on Tuesday, putting their status for Sunday’s matchup with Pittsburgh in question.
- Eagles open practice window for Miles Sanders. Eagles running back Miles Sanders is set to come off injured reserve after missing the past three games with an ankle injury.
- Joe Flacco expected to start for Jets. With Zach Wilson still dealing with a knee injury and Mike White fizzling out, New York is reportedly expected to start Joe Flacco when they face the Dolphins in Week 11.
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