Three best basketball unders to bet on, including Mavericks vs. Suns, plus other top picks for Wednesday

Playoff expansion is coming in college football. I’m not breaking news here. The moment a four-team playoff was created, it was only a matter of time before it would expand to eight or more. And while there’s been plenty of chatter about it among the conferences and media this year, something happened on Tuesday night that convinced me it’d be a lot sooner rather than later.

The College Football Playoff rankings were released, and there wasn’t any drama. The top seven were the same as the previous rankings, and the only movement was Oklahoma falling from No. 8 to No. 13, with the teams behind them all moving up a spot or two. There wasn’t any controversy. There weren’t any new talking points.

And that’s when I knew expansion would be coming soon. I mean, the playoff rankings are just a television show. They don’t mean anything — they just help sell games to television viewers. What do television shows need to keep viewer interest? Drama, action, anything that draws a reaction, and with only four playoff spots, there are too many weeks when there isn’t anything new to talk about.

But if there were eight spots or 12? Well, then every single change in the meaningless rankings will matter.

• Carlos Correa deserves an extra $5 million on his contract for this.
• Maybe we should pump the brakes on all this Mac Jones love.
• Being a Jets fan has to be miserable.
• There are a lot of open college football jobs, and not many obvious candidates to fill them.

To tonight’s picks!

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Mavericks at Suns, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Under 213 (-110): I hope you’ve enjoyed the steady diet of NBA unders because they keep winning, and I’ve got a lot more of them coming at you. And it just so happens that my favorite under play of the night in the NBA happens to be one of the bigger matchups. The reigning Western Conference champion Phoenix Suns host the Luka Doncic-less Mavericks in a game between two offenses struggling to find themselves.

Not that it’s impacted the Suns record much. While Phoenix is only 13th in offensive rating, it’s 10-3 to start the season thanks to a defense that ranks sixth in the league. The Mavs team they host tonight has a similar record at 9-4 but hasn’t been nearly as strong defensively (16th) or offensively (18th).

Dallas’ numbers have been significantly worse on the road too. Their offensive rating at home is 113.1, but on the road its 100.5. Defensively, the difference is minimal as it’s 107.9 at home and 108.0 on the road. Now imagine what it could look like tonight without Luka Doncic. Those struggles make me lean toward the under here (as well as toward Phoenix on the spread, but I don’t love it). Phoenix’s defense combined with that inefficient (and slow-moving) Dallas offense on the road should lead to a lower-scoring contest. Now, we’ll have to withstand the possibility of the Suns going nuclear on offense, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take. Also, to be totally honest, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dallas’ defense improve without Doncic.

Key Trend: The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: I’m just one human, but The SportsLine Projection Model has simulated this game 10,000 times, which is 9,999 more times than I have the time to do. So check out what it has to say too.

💰 The Picks

🏀NBA

Celtics at Hawks, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass

The Pick: Under 215.5 (-110) — MOAR UNDERZ!!!! I’m sorry, it’s an addiction, and one I cannot beat, nor am I trying to. The matchup for this game isn’t dissimilar to the one we’re attacking between the Suns and Mavericks. The most significant difference is that the Atlanta offense has been the best of the four teams in our two NBA plays tonight. The Hawks offensive rating of 109.9 ranks sixth in the league. And if you’re wondering why a team that’s so good offensively is only 6-9, it’s because they’re awful defensively! Atlanta’s defensive rating of 111.3 ranks 27th in the league.

So why in the hell am I taking an under in a game featuring a team that’s all offense and no defense? Well, because Boston is the polar opposite of the Hawks. The Celtics rank 24th on offense and 10th on defense, and I think their defense will be able to slow Atlanta down. Speaking of slowing things down, tempo is another factor in play tonight. The Hawks move slower than you’d expect, ranking 16th in the NBA in pace, while Boston ranks 23rd. That will limit the overall number of possessions, which will limit the chances of these teams going over the total.

Key Trend: The under is 7-3-1 in Boston’s last 11 as a road dog.

🏀College Basketball

NC State vs. Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network

The Pick: Under 137.5 (-110) — It’s still early in the college basketball season, and I’m not comfortable betting many games at this point, but this is the kind of spot I look for. Both Oklahoma State and NC State are playing in the Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase in Connecticut and played last night. The Wolfpack got past Central Connecticut, 79-65, while Oklahoma State beat UMass-Lowell, 80-58.

Early in the season, we see a lot of these neutral site tournaments and teams playing on consecutive nights. Since it’s still early, most teams aren’t in “game shape” yet, which leads to a lot of lower-scoring, ugly affairs on the second and third nights of these events. So those tired legs and Oklahoma State’s defense have me thinking this isn’t going to be the prettiest basketball game you’ve ever seen.

Key Trend: The under is 6-2 in Oklahoma State’s last eight games as a favorite.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: While I’m betting the total, the SportsLine Projection Model’s favorite NBA play of the night is on the spread in Hawks/Celtics.

 🏈 #MACtion Parlay

I didn’t come into today thinking I would pick nothing but unders, but since I’ve already picked three, why not parlay the under in both #MACtion games tonight? There’s a lot of wind in the forecast for both games. This parlay pays +264.

• Buffalo/NIU Under 59.5 (-110)
• Ball State/Central Michigan Under 57 (-110)